Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 17/12/2022 17:18

Stamp duty is fine when the price of your house going up, covers it, within a year or so.

On the way down it’s an additional REAL instant loss that’s not recoverable.


The bulls here have completely been focused on lower rates in 18 months.

They are in for a shock.

[sunshine today] 17/12/2022 17:15

Stamp duty alone will kill the housing market, as prices fall.

The second home market will be slaughtered @8% stamp, plus all the other moving costs of at least 2%.


=


10% tax plus 15% fall in prices over the next year, plus general,( but not house inflation).

Real loss one can look forward to is a massive 35%.

[fenners66] 16/12/2022 23:32

"Average UK property prices increased by 12.6 per cent in the year to October, up from a 9.9 per cent rise seen in the 12 months to September, official figures show.

The average UK house price was £296,000 in October, which is £33,000 higher than this time last year and little changed from last month, the Office for National Statistics said. "

ONS official stats , not USA , not Sweden or New Zealand the UK

Even higher than previous estimates.....

As said since 2021 no UK house price crash in 2022.

Just for the mathematically challenged , it would take a fall of 32.6% in the last 2 months...

[sunshine today] 16/12/2022 15:23

The Case For a 30% House Price Crash
House prices in the UK are in the process of rolling over, as they are in several other countries around the world. But how far will they fall?

On Monday, I took part in a discussion on this very topic with my colleagues Merryn Somerset Webb and Alice Kantor. I made the schoolboy error of allowing myself to be drawn into making a prediction about house prices. (Can’t believe Merryn tricked me into that one.)



Four Crashes

The first distinction to make is between nominal and real price movements. The nominal price is the price you pay. The “real” terms price is that price adjusted for inflation. This matters, because if house prices stay flat or even rise, but the wider price level, and wages specifically, rise faster, then houses become more affordable while the cost of the debt used to buy them is eroded.

So we’re talking about a “real” terms fall of 30%, rather than purely nominal (though I think we’ll see a drop in nominal terms too).

The past is no guide to the future, but it’s the only one we’ve got, so what’s the historic precedent? If you look back at previous house price crashes in the UK, 30% real is a bit larger than average, but by no means impossible.

Neal Hudson of BuiltPlace has a good discussion of the four big downturns since 1970. In the 1970s and 1980s, we had two crashes where prices rose in nominal terms but fell in real terms. Between 1973 and 1977, house prices fell by 30% in real terms. Yet in nominal terms they went up substantially (also in the region of about 30%). The drop was entirely down to rampant inflation. From 1979 to 1982, meanwhile, prices fell by 17% in real terms but rose a little in nominal terms.

In the crash of the early 1990s, by contrast, prices fell by 37% in real terms between 1989 and 1995, more than half of which was a nominal crash. And in the most recent crash, from 2007 to 2013, the peak to trough fall was a real terms drop of 26%, the majority of which came in nominal terms (because inflation was so low).

So a 30% real-terms fall is hardly unprecedented.

The Big Risk

So what about the specifics of today? In some ways the housing market is less vulnerable than in the past. There are fewer mortgage holders than there were ahead of the 2008 crash. Those who do have mortgages are generally better off, less leveraged, and are on fixed rather than variable-rate mortgages.

However, in other ways, it’s very vulnerable indeed. Affordability, in terms of house-prices-to-earnings as measured by the Office for National Statistics, has never been worse, at roughly nine times average household income. Note that unaffordability hit fresh peaks ahead of three out of the four crashes mentioned above.

Even using Nationwide first-time buyer data, as seen in the chart below, it’s clear that affordability has never been poorer on this measure.

UK House Price Affordability is Worse Than Ever
The ratio of prices to incomes has hit a fresh high

[cupra kid] 16/12/2022 13:52

To be fair Jug, all you need to keep saying is that it'll be 120p soon enough. A bit like the others keep predicting a house price crash.

[jugears] 16/12/2022 13:39

LooooooooooooooooL, Lets see what happens!!!!!! whats the betting that all the shares will be back up next week with a nice little 5% profit for Christmas, the word MANIPULATION comes to mind!

[jugears] 16/12/2022 12:51

Oh well,I'm not in a rush, I did here the other day that they still plan to pay a dividend next year & maybe some surplus cash?

[25guilderbag] 16/12/2022 12:44

But what about 120p by Christmas???

[jugears] 16/12/2022 10:56

Well the last few days has offered some nice buying opportunities across all sectors, no doubt created by the the rail strikes & very few people working in he square mile, I don't think we will see Santa's rally this year & not expecting much to happen until next year anyway, but on the whole its been a very good year to pick up cheap shares for the long term & I'm very happy with my purchases this year. looking at the markets today you do have to put things in to perspective & ask you self what has changed in the last week, absolutely nothing, other than an interest rate rise that we have known about for since the last rise, Imo interest rates in the uk & us are going to peak & retract a lot quicker than expected.

[jugears] 15/12/2022 18:00

I have land & animals thanks.

[rwlly1] 15/12/2022 16:40

No Jugs last time I checked definatly male. You really need to be out on a farm at 4.30 in a morning in this weather if you want to hear some proper swearing, but no need for it here.

[jugears] 15/12/2022 15:35

sikh your posts are boring & again you are making assumption, lets see what really happens, IMO nothing before the Spring.
Rwilly if you are female then I apologies for using bad language.

[baracuda2] 15/12/2022 15:20

You've totally lost me now, I really have no idea what you are talking about, now just crawl back to where the rest of you trolling idiots come from.

[beckers2008] 15/12/2022 15:14

And the village idiot 'Sikhthetech' is compelled to argue til its black and blue with Jugs, lol!
Even if it gets ripped a new one!

The village idiot has lost it's argument for the last 4 plus year's and is getting more and more desperate, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 15/12/2022 15:01

Jugears,

You clearly didn't read my post, as per usual.

Try reading it properly.

Investors look to maximise their retirement funds or gain max income, with little stress as possible.
With lower cgt thresholds coming, you'll only pay more tax in the future.

The bulls resort to bad language simply because they are rattled..

[beckers2008] 15/12/2022 14:44

r1,

No bad language from me, you stand or sit corrected.

Intestingly the BOE raise rates again and currently TW. share price heads North, there maybe a clue there, lol!

[rwlly1] 15/12/2022 14:40

Well Baracuda when you and jug and BECKERS get together over a pint to debate how wonderful you are, you can use as much bad language as you want, but not on this thread please

[sikhthetech] 15/12/2022 14:13

re 2nd homes.

When there's a property crash, those with 2nd homes who bought them to help towards retirement would probably sell before the market crashes.

When interest rates are rising, those who bought for income would probably sell as better returns come along elsewhere.
Especially those who used mortgages to pay for those 2nd homes.


So I would expect more 2nd homes to be sold...

[rwlly1] 15/12/2022 14:13

Well if the government had not sqandered the proceeds from the sale of the council houses they would have had the funds

[rwlly1] 15/12/2022 12:26

Perhaps we could have compulsary purchase by the government, it would give them a good stock of social housing.