Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 06/6/2017 09:30

I don't have a problem with your approach Jugears, I simply prefer mine :)

[jugears] 06/6/2017 09:22

gbh2 I assume that was a company that had not actually made a profit & reaching £15 was speculation that it might do, in which case thats the risk you take. Tw however do make a profit & weather they are up or down year on year will continue to do so for many years to come, especially whilst interest rates are so low & these won't be increasing before brexit.

[m4rtinu] 06/6/2017 08:49

IMO - large Tory maj would signal harder Brexit; small Tory maj softer Brexit. Which is better for eg TW.?

Polls all over the place (UKIP would say that :) The ones that show the gap the closest are apparently assuming young voters get out in greater % than usual. And the young disproportionately favour Labour. UKIP vote has collapsed and they are not standing candidates in many places; where will their vote go? Will there be tactical voting by Lab/LDs to try to stop Tories? Very unpredictable election.

My guess is that Tories will get a slightly increased majority. Perhaps 30-40 seats. Hoping for a lot less.

[gbh2] 06/6/2017 08:44

"I don't see the point in buying & selling."

Neither did I until I sat and watched a share go from 50p to £15 and back again in under 12 months because I kept thinking it would bounce back and exceed the £15.

We live and learn, for me this is a way of passing a few hours a week, especially if its raining.

[jugears] 06/6/2017 08:36

Everyone has there own predictions, I expected these to fall ex dividend to circa £1.74 It doesn't really matter I have no plans to sell so I haven't lost anything. Admittedly if the election goes badly the markets could fall sharply but thats the risk you take they will come good eventually, unless you are relying on the income I don't see the point in buying & selling.

[gbh2] 06/6/2017 07:36

And yet here we are at a share price that's below even what I was predicting several days prior to the ex special dividend date :)

As I only sold half my holding at 203p I'll still be watching on Friday and though I expect there would be some share price reaction to a significant election result (either way) I'll not expect a "recovery" before the run up to the next ex dividend date, unless there's news of government support for the whole sector.

[jugears] 05/6/2017 23:48

Raffles, Absolutely agree.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/6/2017 22:54

Completely disagree - it's cheap, got great momentum and demand drivers and it's relative underperformance to the market for past two months has been huge. Get the other side of the election and a conservative victory will get this flying after what has been three years of derating. And important catalyst coming in July with 2017 dividend announcement.

[gbh2] 05/6/2017 21:53

No reason to hold imo it's a similar picture to last year post special divided.

[terminated] 05/6/2017 11:10

No point holding for dividend unless you intend to hold long term. It does look over sold however, down 10% after payment of a 6% divi. I wonder how many short positions were taken out last few days before divi...

[gambos49] 05/6/2017 10:40

I was hoping these would be going back up now not carrying on down

[deanforester] 03/6/2017 22:46

The above is confusing, because it does not spell out the dividends paid is a systematic way. The RNS was issued on 17 May 2016, spelling out the dividend policy. The last full year report for 2016 was issued on 28 Feb 2017, which reiterated mu ch of the above.

Since Special dividends began in FY 2013 the dividends received have been:

2013 Interim 0.22p
2013 Final 0.47p
2013 Special 1.54p (paid in July 2014)

2014 Interim 0.24p
2014 Final 1.32p
2014 Special 7.48p (paid in July 2015)

2015 Interim 0.49p
2015 Final 1.18p
2015 Special 9.2p

2016 Interim 0.53p
2016 Final 2.29p
2016 Special 9.2p (to be paid in July 2016)

The first RNS mentioned above does state that:

Subject to shareholder approval at the 2017 Annual General Meeting, the Board will recommend an ordinary dividend to be paid in May 2017 of £75 million (c.2.3 pence per share) and subject to that, will then make an interim dividend to be paid in October 2017 also of £75 million (c.2.3 pence per share). In addition, and again subject to shareholder approval, the Board is also today proposing that a special dividend be paid in July 2017 of £300 million (c.9.2 pence per share).
and that is the only reference to that 2017 Interim Dividend of 2.3p, similar to the 2016 Final. Add those together and you get that 4.6p.

DF

[sogoesit] 03/6/2017 14:14

Dividends
[Note Total payout increases from £355.9m (10.88p/sh) in 2016 to £450m (13.75p/sh) in 2017, an increase of 26.45% (Shares in issue 3,271.94m) equating to 6.88% yield in 2017 at 200p share price or 7.43% at current 185p SP]

"A key part of our investment proposition is our commitment to a reliable dividend stream for our investors through the cycle. We remain confident that we can continue to be significantly cash generative, enabling shareholders to benefit from the success of our strategy in all stages of the cycle by sustaining a significant ordinary dividend to shareholders on an annual basis, including through a 'normal downturn', and an additional special dividend to be paid at appropriate times in the cycle.

During 2016 we significantly enhanced our ordinary dividend and announced further special dividends. Therefore, subject to shareholder approval each year, the Company will pay an ordinary dividend of approximately 5% of Group net assets and which will be at least £150 million per annum. This is intended to provide a reliable minimum annual return to shareholders throughout the cycle. This Ordinary Dividend Policy was subject to prudent and comprehensive stress testing against various downside scenarios, which also included a reduction of 20% in average selling prices and a 30% reduction in volumes. After the economic uncertainty of the latter half of 2016, we remain very confident in this policy.

The payment of ordinary dividends will continue to be supplemented by additional significant special dividends at appropriate times in the cycle. Our Special Dividend Policy will pay out to shareholders the free cash generated by the Group after land investment, all working capital, taxation and other cash requirements of the business in executing our strategy in the medium term, and once the Group's ordinary dividends have been met.

In 2016 shareholders received total dividends (including ordinary and special dividends) of £355.9 million (or 10.91 pence per share).

As previously announced, and subject to shareholder approval at the 2017 Annual General Meeting, we intend to pay c.£300 million to shareholders in July 2017 by way of a special dividend.

Accordingly, subject to shareholder approval at the 2017 Annual General Meeting, in 2017 shareholders will receive a total dividend of c.£450 million (c.13.8 pence per share), comprising an ordinary dividend of c.£150 million (c.4.6 pence per share) and a special dividend of c.£300 million (9.2 pence per share).

Target of £1.3bn in the period 2016-18 (A)

Ordinary dividend 2016 actual paid £55.8m

Ordinary dividend 2017 announced (B)c.£150.0m

Special dividend 2016 actual paid £300.1m

Special dividend 2017 announced c.£300.0m

Total dividend 2016 actual paid £355.9m

Total dividend 2017 announced c.£450.0

(A) All ordinary and special dividends are subject to shareholder approval
(B) In line with previously announced Policy

The Board confirms its intention to keep the mechanics of how the Company will pay special dividends, including the merits of undertaking a share buyback at some point in the future should it become appropriate to do so, under regular review."

[plasticjohn] 03/6/2017 12:14

ganthorpe: I think you're getting your years and dividend cycles confused. TW's talk in the February results is of calender years. Total ordinary dividend paid in the year 2016 was 1.71p per share (final 1.18, interim 0.53), or circa £55m. Proposed ordinary payment in 2017 is 4.6p, or circa £150m. So yes, it is a near-tripling in ordinaries and means the next payment after the special should be about 2.3p per share.

[jugears] 03/6/2017 12:02

Who ever gets in to power we still have a shortage of new homes,Whilst I would like to see a Tory majority ,any government is going to have to address this.

[stewart64] 03/6/2017 10:10

Jugears...all assuming we get a Tory majority. I'm guessing a lot of money is hedged out of the domestic market at the moment in the unlikely event we get a hung Parliament.

TW should pick up if we do get a decisive vote though.

[ganthorpe] 03/6/2017 08:17

I think I am missing something regarding dividends.
TW go to some length to explain their policy in the February results announcements but I can't make the numbers add up.
I agree the 9.2P special but they claim that we will get 4.6P in regular divis in 2017.Last year we got 0.53P interim in October 2016 and 2.29P final in May 2017.That makes 2.82P in regular divis , so it is a big jump to 4.6P ?
Maybe we have to wait for the interims at the end of July to see what they are planning?
Or have I got it wrong?
13.8P for the year would be a nice income for 186P share -about 7.42%
GAN

[dealer1972] 03/6/2017 08:12

Nice gap to the upside also which I expect to be filled post election jitters!

[clarky5150] 02/6/2017 22:46

Aye to that. Will be averaging down on any further drops. This is a no brainier for anyone not looking for instant payback.

[njb67] 02/6/2017 21:12

Mid year results due around end of July. In previous years this is when special dividend has been confirmed (9.2p in both years). If similar announced, then expect share price to bounce back.

[jugears] 02/6/2017 18:26

I think that once the election is out of the way it will be business as usual also remember it is half term this week & most people are on holiday, what ever they drop to next week I think we will see a steady recovery in the share price. IMHO TW still have a long way to go yet, My target price is still £2.64.

[dealer1972] 02/6/2017 18:20

Odd being the key word!

[dondee] 02/6/2017 17:09

I don't HAVE a thread son. Just like you and everyone else I merely make the odd contribution!