Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[21trader] 07/7/2014 15:16

The management should be putting things to plan to make a killing from the massive interest in the Tour De France. This is a big chance to sell a lot more bikes than normal as there will be a spike in demand this year because of this race starting the first 3 days in the UK. If they have done nothing then what a missed opportunity

[amt] 17/6/2014 15:52

The strengthening of £ could have a significant impact over time. I wouldn't be surprised if a 10% increase resulted in 1 million added to bottom line.

[simon templar qc] 13/6/2014 21:41

Thanks, its just Graham mentioned the dollar might have an effect and not sure which way.

[castleford tiger] 13/6/2014 19:03

SIMON

ITS ALL COMING IN FROM CHINA.

[amt] 13/6/2014 08:31

A strengthening of currency I believe is good since reduces cost of goods. I don't think they export.

[simon templar qc] 13/6/2014 07:55

How much does the company export?

Carney indicating interest rates will rise has strengthened the £ as against most currencies.

I think Graham mentioned they were concerned about the dollar.

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 18:29

Last year the company had sales of £11.251 add 26% = £14.176 million estimated sales for first half which is still less than year before at £14.372.

Graham could be right sales have bounced back but at this moment in time not bounced enough to 2012 level.

Too early imo to call it back fully on a growth curve.

All depends how second half pans out now if it meets last year. Its too early to call this with hindsight and maybe I was getting a bit carried away with myself.

The economy is picking up but consumer spend still tight everyone wants a bargain and with world cup to look forward to it could affect bicycle sales during summer.

[castleford tiger] 10/6/2014 17:53

Sorry I could not make it. I was office bound.
Redmayne Bentley and I discussed and like you we felt we may leave disappointed.

I will run the numbers to see what I get for the full year.

they do like to talk it down.

They need stretching by either a good non-exc or another punter building a stake.

Tiger

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 16:35

Have looked at interims again and you are not far off the mark. The concern I have is the second half. If it doesn't match last year it could end up a dull year overall. The other concern I had was order intake was early this year and that could have distorted sales figures.

Nothing wrong in banking a profit and its on my watch list.

[graham1ty] 10/6/2014 16:29

ST. Last years interims were disastrous. £475,000 loss on revenue down 30% at c£11m. I am extrapolating from 2012 when they made £184,000 on revenue of £14.5m. If they stay 26% up on last year, then revenue bounces back to c£14m. Just guessing then that profit might be just behind 2012 or a small profit. TND has been quite seasonal. So, if 1H is dull we have to wait ( like for 2013) until next March for the full year outcome. By when we may have all died of boredom

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 16:28

Graham,

Lazy me now I know where you are coming from!

Have looked at interims and they need to be clawing back at least 30% to be making a decent profit in first half. Overheads are probably lower but its a big ask.

I missed the obvious and glad I took a profit.

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 16:14

Graham,

Thanks for your earlier comments. Slightly confused over one area. The company is well up on last year why do you see the company barely profitable in H1?

I must confess I haven't looked in detail at last years interims so being a bit lazy here.

I have taken a profit on todays rise however as like you I did not like the way the statement was worded. I think as the shares are illiquid the share bounce may soon fizzle out.

We could both be wrong here but I managed to buy in on day of final results at the low point and have made a good profit since and got a dividend as well.

[graham1ty] 10/6/2014 14:50

ST. If, if, if profits were consistent, then this would be more highly rated. However, it is a "glass half full" company and something always derails them. It has always generated cash, but reducing net debt from over £10m ten years ago, to net cash effectively ( before they bought their site) I had always hoped the cash would be invested to produce a return. But no.

I may be wrong to be negative, but 1H always looks a bit weak, so any negativity at the interims, and higher share price will not be held. I am slightly surprised by today's movement. The comparisons only look good against 2013 as last year was the worst first half on record. This company is still smaller than it was in 2012.

If u believe in trends, look at the five year record. Revenue has fallen every year for the last five years. One apparently good statement does not mean this is out the woods

But then what do I know ? It will probably now double !!

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 14:32

Graham,

Thanks for that, it doesn't instil much confidence to invest from the replies you got!

Seems you covered most questions that I would have put to the board. Looks to me like they are frightened to promote the company in case they miss the targets then shareholders revolting over management!

Well done in any event its a pity more shareholders like you cannot pluck up enough courage and say more of what you said.

I have to say after the initial bounce today if investors are not careful the share price may weaken in due course.

[graham1ty] 10/6/2014 14:19

Two shareholders only. I have become more critical of the Board and I think that was reflected in the tone of the meeting. I had pointed out that revenue is still down on 2012. Obviously no answers on profitability so 1H will come out probably just profitable, then we are down to the usual lottery of dollar and weather. They are capable of profit, but as last spring showed, also sudden losses.

They have no intention of engaging proactively with shareholders, and no intention of promoting the Company. There will be no research and no forecasts. Seem paranoid about trolls and ramps ( scarred by AB experience ?). Where AB was absolutely right is that they appear still to be devoid of ideas. There might be an acquisition ( there seem to be a few more things to look at) but they have been saying that for five years....and earlier acquisition history hardly inspires confidence. The fact they have survived the recessions seems good enough. There is no sense of frustration at being "undervalued", no sense of being under "rated". They might remain a £5m Market cap company in 5 years time for all I see.

They seem happy that the shares are up from 80p to 120p. And, if u chose that period, is better. However, three years ago the price 110p, and ten years ago adjusted for the consolidation, they were 140p. So, after today, making a bit of money, but only off the lows.

On presentations, there was a comment that one off "snapshot" presentations are a waste of time and may actually mislead. I pointed out that their presentation of c5 years ago had five aims. Higher share price ( failed); higher profit (failed); higher net assets (failed); better communication with shareholders (failed); consistent divi ( horay)

In conclusion, as last year I said: " if I am going to remain a shareholder, excite me". The answer was " well, we have not got anything to say". How depressing

PS Jim, Mervyn, I know u will have read this by the time I get home. Email me if u want...

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 09:30

Graham,

Your thoughts concur with mine. If you are going to the AGM can you ask how strong pound will affect things?

The company covered itself in case second half doesn't meet last years sales.

[graham1ty] 10/6/2014 09:30

Tiger....no sign of you. Are u coming to the AGM again ?

[graham1ty] 10/6/2014 09:27

Slightly misleading statement. 2013 was 30% down on 2012 and the worst half year on record. So a 26% bounce is slightly less impressive than it seems and 2014 still below 2012. In 2012 H1 was only just profitable, so this year ?? And if 2H may not match last year, then not yet a mega year. All good, and all in the right direction, but not yet time for Directors bonuses

[21trader] 10/6/2014 09:26

Surely the Tour De France here in UK will boost sales ?

[supreme mo] 10/6/2014 09:19

Pleasing to see the price head in the right direction!! I'm happy to hold and dont see any reason to sell.

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 08:49

Hope you are right but the earlier boost in order intake must have had a significant boost to the 26% figure. World cup in second half may have an impact on sales, we will see.

[amt] 10/6/2014 08:42

Well 26% ahead of last year even though an earlier intake, I am sure they must be growing even if you exclude that.

[simon templar qc] 10/6/2014 08:38

Your comment as to consistent profitability not quite as I read it...

"Although 2014 year to date performance has been very encouraging, this has been helped by better weather and an earlier intake of product by national retailers. The strong second half last year will therefore be a challenge to emulate. Nevertheless, our Autumn/Winter listings are promising and our hard working and dedicated employees continue to be focused on delivering profitability and growth for the Group."

Early intake of products has boosted sales in first half!

[amt] 10/6/2014 08:27

Yes but last year was exceptional about 17m so its a tough target that would be terrific if they get near it. Important point is that growth is now consistent.