Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[supreme mo] 06/7/2010 13:06

mms obviously got a bit of stock - will be interesting to see if company uses its money to buy back or if directors pick any up........

[supreme mo] 06/7/2010 13:05

Is that Jupiter selling? Strange if so. Also 40k sold at 97p....

[greengiant] 29/6/2010 21:05

Just joined kramch at K3 Bus Tech with a buy of 70k over this afternoon. Looks undervalued.

gg

[greengiant] 29/6/2010 21:03

And strengthening £ will help even more.

:-)

Like nice round numbers

gg

[supreme mo] 29/6/2010 19:35

GG, have you finished buying?! ;-)

This bout of good weather will do the outdoor leisure business no harm.

[greengiant] 28/6/2010 16:00

Just passed the recent high of 1.20


gg

[davidosh] 26/6/2010 13:12

Stemis.....this info extracted from the AR will help

Bicycles revenue for the 12 weeks to 23 April 2010 was 13% up on the previous year. We expect revenue to be behind last year in the second quarter due to a reduction in sales to national retailers mentioned in the Chairman's statement. However, increasing levels of demand from independent retailers combined with good weather during the summer should help to mitigate this shortfall.

If sales were 13% up in Q1 then comparative sales must be lower in Q2 for the figure to have now dropped to plus 3% but of course we do not know the relative volume splits and Q1 (Feb-Apr inc) really ought to be the busy one as retailers stock up in readiness for the Spring and early Summer buying season.

At the AGM we were told that the good weather was pushing demand and increased orders from the independent retailers but that ASDA for example following a change in management had not repeated the huge promotion that they had last year but were still ordering decent amounts. So hopefully overall half year sales may be within the level to 5% up range with the glorious weather boosting sales.

[stemis] 26/6/2010 06:44

I guess in the end it will depend on what the broker notes/investment presentation says.

The AGM statement was, as usual with Tandem, a mish mash of snippets of information.

Bicycle sales up 3% in the first 20 weeks but expected to be behind last year for the second quarter - actually the first 20 weeks includes 7 weeks of quarter 2, so does that mean up or down for H1 overall and what about H2? Comment about good weather seems positive.

Sports, leisure and toys up 17% in the first 20 weeks, but Ben 10 sales to fall behind last year in the second half - unlike with bicycles they are talking about H2 not Q2 and since we don't know how much Ben 10 accounts for out of the total, it doesn't really mean anything. However they are encouraged by potential from new licences and national retailer listings for Autumn/Winter 2010 so generally positive?

It has not been possible to pass on cost pressures in respect of US dollar volatility and increases in freight and raw material prices and this has had an adverse impact on profit margins. - clearly negative but they don't say whether this outweighs impact of sales.

Overall margin before management charges in 2010 was 5.3%. A 0.5 points fall in margin would need a 10% increase in sales to offset it.

From the above its possible Tandem could be ahead of last year (although it seems unlikely by much) or behind last year.

[davidosh] 25/6/2010 16:07

I doubt very many will want to sell this time round as it is about to breakout and a number of larger holders have been buying steadily so it is likely to go much higher based on that demand. If the directors especially the new ones were to buy a few shares at this point in the strategy change to give additional confidence then the share price would go much higher. There are broker notes and investor presentations to come in the next two months or so too. Taking all that into consideration there will probably be a fair chance of seeing the price higher or at least stabilising near the highs.

[greengiant] 25/6/2010 15:51

Well we are back up at 1.20, now will people get cold feet again and sell out or will we break through this level, and reach the highs of 2007?

gg

[greengiant] 24/6/2010 17:43

SM,

It looks to me that there has to be several steps to this process

1) The company needs to issue a broker note - even if this is paid for, I don't really care. I know at the AGM some people were concerned that paid for notes are of little use - I disagree. A good broker note tells a brief history of where the company has come from, what it expects to do this year and potentially next (the magnificent numbers) and most importantly WHERE the company is going to in the future.

2) The Investor Presentation - This needs to focus on again, where the company has come from but the major emphasis needs to be on where the company is going.

3) Looking at the strategy, a good strategy should leverage off the company's core capabilities (I sound like a strategy lecturer). Now you may question what exactly are TND's core capabilities, but this is where Andy Bestwick comes in to help. The company has got a good bicycle division, cash generative and relatively steady. Will it do magnificently well? Probably not, I am sure there will be growth (growing market sector) but will we be challenging the GIANT, TREK dominance - probably not, that is not to say that products are't good, just positioned differently.

To me the key capabilities of the company are taking licences and developing them - this can be seen in the MV Division. There are several waysof doing this and continuing on the strategy front, according to the Ansoff matrix, there are two logical segments for the company to attack. Both of these were highlighted at the company's AGM, that is Product Development (Plush) and Market Development (Geographical reach).

Does the company need funding to do this, no. Is it better for the company to increase its share capital - yes, a recent research paper from London Business School showed that companies with a low share capital (listed) attracted a discount of between 11% and 17%. Which is understandable. However, if there are placings, I cannot see them done until the company has clearly defined and delivered on at least part of its strategy.

Still buying this on a purely DCF basis makes it ridiculously cheap - so long as the company remains cash generative.

gg

[cwa1] 24/6/2010 11:56

TMF article:-

[supreme mo] 23/6/2010 20:06

Yes, I agree it will be interesting. GG, do you think long term the company is best growing organically or through acquisitions? It was interesting to see Mervyn say they are always looking for opportunities at the right price, but obviously the right ones. Do you also think that they will issue more shares i.e. to fund managers to fund any such acquisitions? - similar to the Broker Network Holdings situation we knew so well $-) or just use their existing cash holdings?

[greengiant] 23/6/2010 13:15

The smallest spread that I have ever seen today!

I will def be attending the IP, after a brief conversation with the board, the emphasis of the IP will be on the future as opposed to the past. It will be interesting.

gg

[devymaster] 22/6/2010 10:29

Result from AGM: Remuneration committee increased to three as per investor sentiment at AGM

www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=2010062210022501180

Devymaster

[greengiant] 22/6/2010 07:33

Thank you all for the contribution made at yesterday's AGM. It was lively and very informative. I believe the company has a clear strategy of where it wants to go from here and with the 2x new NED's I believe the future is an exciting one. With the appointment of Andy Bestwick, the Board looks a lot more balanced which is encouraging.

I will definitely be intending the Investor Presentation in September, as the story that this company has to tell is interesting. I would say that the historical story to me is (whilst interesting) less important than the story the company tells about the future. For the skeptics I would say that you need only look at what has happened over the last 3 months (yes it has only been that long) and credit for that must go to davidosh for his untiring, relentless, bloody mindedness (:-) at making companies more open.

I would add that you get a £6m market cap company, with £1m PBT, limited tax and £30m sales but with £1.2m cash and cash generative. So net market cap is £4.8m or lower - with £1m PBT - still a daft valuation.

gg

[campbed] 21/6/2010 18:48

I attended Tandem (T)'s AGM today together with about 10 other private shareholders, including the two largest - viz. Mr Burgess (~15%) and Mr Davies (~3%). After the formal business there was a lively and extensive Q&A session that lasted more than an hour.

Many of T's competitors are privately owned and T's directors believe that as a result T is commercially disadvantaged if too much information on their commercial thinking, customers and business strategy is disclosed either in their reports to shareholders or on BB's. I will respect their concern here. However a difficulty is thereby created for (private) shareholders with insufficient time to attend the AGM over how to gain enough information/understanding about T and its prospects to decide whether to buy/hold/sell T shares compared with investment alternatives which have better decision support information available.

On the one hand I came away from the AGM overall more encouraged than discouraged. T directors indicated they maybe entering into a new phase of development after spending the last few years prioritising the strengthening of the balance sheet (to ensure support will continue from its banks who provide working capital through invoice discounting). The extensive recent changes to the board may also be indicative of postive changes and per se engender new ideas whereas the former board structure had become stale and inward looking.

On the other hand there is no doubt that T's business segments are all highly competitive, the internet is flattening distribution channels and hence reducing margins, and T's products are for the most part generic rather than having much specialism or differentiation. There is still a long way to go for T to become investable for most institutions such as paying dividend and broker forecasts forecasting growth but that is where PI's with sufficient time and inclination can sometimes steal a march on II's.

The case for investment is that an investor gets a lot for his/her money: a £6m mkt cap with a £1m PBT with minimal tax payable and with over £30m of sales a group of businesses with some structure and some well known brand names. But the sceptics will contend that has been the case for several years and T's sector and activities will never make it a strong contender for investing in.

[cwa1] 21/6/2010 14:08

AGM Statement:

Chairman, Graham Waldron, made the following statement at today's AGM:

"Revenue for the 20 weeks to 18 June 2010 was 8% above the comparative period
last year.

Bicycle sales were up by 3% but as previously reported we expect revenue to be
behind last year in the second quarter due to a reduction in sales to national
retailers compared to the previous year.

Revenue from our sports, leisure and toys business was 17% ahead for the 20
weeks to 18 June 2010. The Ben 10 licence continues to perform well although as
previously stated we anticipate revenue from this licence to fall behind last
year in the second half. We remain encouraged by the potential from our new
licences and national retailer listings for Autumn/Winter 2010.

Trading conditions continue to be difficult due to cost pressures in respect of
US dollar volatility and increases in freight and raw material prices. It has
not been possible to pass all of these additional costs on to customer
mid-season and this has had an adverse impact on profit margins.

The Group continues to strengthen the balance sheet, stockholdings have been
reduced and this has resulted in an improved cash position.

Despite the issues raised above, the Board remain encouraged by the recent good
weather and positive impact this has had on independent bicycle dealer sales in
particular.

The Board believes in keeping its shareholders informed and working closely with
them. To this end, the Board announces that it will be hosting an investor
presentation at the offices of Grant Thornton, 30 Finsbury Square, London EC2P
2YU, the Company's auditors at 10.00am on Tuesday 7 September 2010. Those
wishing to attend are asked to email our Nominated Adviser
([e-mail]) or telephone [phone] to confirm attendance."

[campbed] 19/6/2010 21:27

davidosh :

[davidosh] 19/6/2010 16:55

Two more joining us for the AGM....

11am on Monday at Tandem HQ.

Marben100 (who attended two years ago)
Skegbyhouse ((TMF)
greengiant
davidosh
MrContrarian (TMF)
kramch
myrtle1
supreme mo (almost certain)
Campbed (who has attended two AGMs)
Devymaster (TMF)


Any more ??

[greengiant] 18/6/2010 15:14

Campbed - It will be great to see you.

I will be having a coffee at the Holiday Inn (1 minute from Tandem) at from about 10:00 on Monday. Then maybe one of you kind souls can give me a lift to Tandem.

:-)

gg

[davidosh] 18/6/2010 15:12

Campbed....Excellent your 'previous' and PPL experience will be much needed.

[campbed] 18/6/2010 14:59

Davidosh -- I plan to attend the AGM on Moday 21 st June. I've attended 2 or 3 previous AGM's when only 1 or 2 private shareholders (including me) attended.

[supreme mo] 17/6/2010 20:59

Davidosh, change those stats to 90/10 - how could I pass up the chance to meet the infamous Mr Giant himself!!

[davidosh] 17/6/2010 10:00

Incidentally they may be a major shareholder but I bet Jupiter do not even send an office junior to the AGM and I bet they have no clue about events here over the last six months and probably wonder why the share price has moved up !

I will keep a list of shareholders coming to the AGM....

Marben100 (who attended two years ago)
Skegbyhouse ((TMF)
greengiant
davidosh
MrContrarian (TMF)
kramch
myrtle1
supreme mo (almost certain)
Campbed


Any more to join us ??