Talktalk Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[1224saj] 02/12/2020 10:36

I think TT should declare a 20p special dividend and tell TF to walk :-)

[bookbroker] 01/12/2020 05:38

Maybe another fund-raising required without a deal, highly likely that Tosca sees a refinancing of the business to reduce the debt load as probable for it to compete and thrive down the pipe. Whatever Harrison says it should be taken with a pinch of salt, debt load barely budged despite improving metrics.

[1224saj] 30/11/2020 23:00

Black rock increased their short position today at 91p Also other II are increasing. What is going on? If the deal is dead, TT should only be going north to catch up on the market rebound, why would anybody shot??

[blobby] 27/11/2020 16:14

Hopefully this means the deal is being rejected.

At the moment new buyers are not interested in a long uncertain wait for a few pence and some are selling through the natural holding cycle.

Once the deal is rejected the market can get on with making a new valuation based on the very good prospects for TalkTalk.

[pierre oreilly] 27/11/2020 12:07

The board should consider they have a legal duty to act in the best interests of shareholders, or at least a duty of care over shareholders.

Manoeuvring to give themselves a cheap deal at the expense of shareholders and the conflict of interest all this guff entails means they may well be leaving themselves open to further actions if they ripoff shareholders too much.

[1224saj] 27/11/2020 09:45

97p on the table, 92p to buy today. I sense TP may be considering a reduced offer, where are the regulator when you need them. This dirty deal has prevented TT benefiting from the COVID bounce of around 35% disgraceful!

[paulo435] 25/11/2020 19:21

Same is happening with the AA squeam. If they had been left alone as they were it’s likely both these co’s would be sitting at a higher share price - but sooner or later someone comes along to expose or unsettle matters - that can simply be the way of the market and business. When someone tables an offer then the market can falsely view this as it’s worth - even if that may be short term. Price is affected by many variables obviously but this has a huge impact. Dragging down / chaining there or thereabouts for a while. Equally it can rocket to where it should be or above - increased offer leaked? Competitor emerges? Etc etc that’s all the way the cookie crumbles

[squeamish1] 25/11/2020 14:18

Can’t fathom this. 97p now looks ludicrously cheap - I know it was a big premium to share price when announced but TALK would likely have jumped c25% anyway post-vaccine bump like VOD & BT.A have.

Perversely I think the current share price is lower than it would be had the Tosca bid never arrived.

[blobby] 23/11/2020 14:10

Yes, my thinking as well. I guess the share price may adjust when someone tips it or there is some other news.

[1224saj] 23/11/2020 08:59

Something is not right. You can make a 3.2% turn on the offer price of 97p.Question, market thinks the deal is not going to happen? If so, when will we get the market sentiment adjustment of 35%+

[1224saj] 19/11/2020 21:53

I've seen this so many times with Dunstone. Let the inquisitive player make their low ball bid, get them on the hook, then say it's not enough. How TF ever thought they would get TT on the cheap. The market has moved 30/40 % in the last 10 days and TT are adding new customers. Market is against you TF

[bookbroker] 19/11/2020 20:16

Tosca are desperate for a deal, they have no get out but to compromise with Dunstone/Ross, their Pegasus Fund is one of the worst performing hedge funds of the lot this year, down 30% roughly, their backers must be screaming for a more activist approach here. Patience running thin and no get out otherwise except with a stonking loss, Dunstone knows they are squealing. Hughes does not win every time!

[quepassa] 18/11/2020 13:27

Unlikely.

Three things:-

1.
This is what TalkTalk wrote about customer payment trends in their QI Trading Update RNS on 21/7/20. And remember this was after the first onerous, lengthy and total lockdown in March:-

"As with many businesses, we have seen a short-term COVID-19 impact primarily due to lockdown trading restrictions and cancellation of live sports. Revenue, Fibre net adds and ARPU trends have all improved in June and July as lockdown restrictions have eased. Encouragingly customer payment trends are in line with the pre-COVID-19 period and we continue to see an ever-increasing demand for our higher speed Fibre and Ethernet products.

2.
The positive news emanating from BT and Vodafone combined with massive 20-30% surges in share price indicate that the industry is not anticipating unmanageable customer payment delinquencies.

3.
If there was going to be an industry-wide crisis and exponential increase in payment delinquencies, that information would likely be known by now and it is unlikely that anyone would be bidding.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[semper vigilans] 18/11/2020 13:01

Maybe they already know that consumers won’t be paying their bills in full and on time.
Being a utility supplier at this time of turmoil can’t be pleasant destraining on those who can’/won’;t pay.

[quepassa] 18/11/2020 12:51

There should be.

This is the very upbeat message which CEO, Tristia Harrison gave with TalkTalk's Q1 Trading Update RNS on 21/7/20:-

Tristia Harrison, Chief Executive of TalkTalk, commented:

"As the UK's internet usage continues to soar, our role as the UK's only scale affordable provider of Fibre broadband has become even more important. Given this, we see a positive outlook to H1 and are confident in our full year plan to deliver stable to growing Headline EBITDA with strong cash conversion."

That is a highly buoyant, optimistic and confident outlook straight from the top.

And remember also that Talktalk won a massive industry award earlier this year when they received the 2020 USWITCH award as Most Popular Broadband Provider:-

hXXps://www.uswitch.com/telecoms-awards/




All of this positive news leads me to believe that rejecting a 135p bid and now countenancing a 97p offer is unfathomable and strangely unusual corporate behavior.


What is lacking is any reason given by TalkTalk as to why they rejected a 135p bid and are now progressing a 97p bid.

It is not surprising that certain investors may or may not be of the opinion that this may or may not be a stitch-up.

In my opinion, The Board of TalkTalk and in particular, Sir Charles Dunstone and Tristia Harrison, should explain to shareholders in clear terms why they rejected a 135p bid and are now progressing a 97p bid.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[harry_david] 18/11/2020 11:35

QP, your comment yesterday most interesting on growth in demand for broadband. From a financial standpoint the question must be whether or not this translates into revenue or is sopped up under fixed price contracts? If there is revenue growth we could see a massive upside.

[1224saj] 18/11/2020 08:47

I for one will be taking this to the regulator if the BOD and major shareholders complete this deal. It has all the hallmarks of a side deal to get it away under market value. The stock has also missed out on a market adjustment of some 30/40% because of COVID!

[quepassa] 16/11/2020 12:52

Excellent first half results from Vodafone today whose results/revenues and profitability beat analyst forecasts.

Highly confident management outlook.

Vodafone up 5% on the back of these results . And now up 25% since 1st January.


This further underlines just how dismal and increasingly unattractive the 97p low-ball bid is.

With the UK telecoms market up by some 25% since the October lows against increasingly positive market news, the 97p bid is now in my opinion totally unacceptable and derisory.

In my view, the offer needs to be thrown out without further delay in order to safeguard fair value in the interests of shareholders, staff and other stakeholders including the Company ESOT

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 13/11/2020 11:40

UK Telecoms going from strength to strength.


Since the October share price lows:

BT is now +25% (up from +20% a week ago)

Vodafone is now +20% (up from +15% a week ago)



The offer was announced on 8/10 at 97p.

At close the previous day, the share price of TalkTalk was 84p representing a very low 13p premium to the day before.

Assuming that TalkTalk would have moved up by 20-25% with the market since the October lows in tandem with BT and Vodafone, it is reasonable to assume that the TalkTalk share price would be now be in the range of 101p to 105p (84p + 20%-25%).


This throws into perspective just how dismal, unattractive and backwards-looking a 97 pence offer is.


Assuming a similar 13p premium, this would drive a minimum offer price in today's market of 114p-118p, which still woefully undervalues the Company.


Apart from the 97p offer not representing the true value of TalkTalk whose shares have traded at higher than 120p within the last twelve months, it is still not clear why management are examining an offer which came at the height of the pandemic and at the recent MULTI-YEAR LOWS for share prices in the UK telecoms sector.

In my opinion, The Board and Management of TalkTalk should reject and throw out the 97p offer (just as they did with the 135p offer) without further delay.

The current 97p offer represents in my opinion very poor value to shareholders and to staff and to the Company's ESOT - whose independent Trustees should in my view immediately object, if they have not already done so.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 12/11/2020 08:13

-No thanks, 135p won't work.

-Ah yes, 97p we'll have a look at that.


Very fishy.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 11/11/2020 07:27

FOR THE RECORD.

Since the October low point in the markets for the UK telecoms sector:

BT has surged by 20%, and

Vodafone has surged by 15%


This leaves the 97p offer for TalkTalk woefully underwater compared to current peer group market valuation metrics.

The market is rotating in favour of value stocks.

With the announcement of a covid vaccine, many sectors related to business activity/offices have pushed ahead rapidly such as telecoms and city-centre real-estate companies in anticipation of a return to normality and a return to office-based work.

On the basis that peer group companies such as BT and Vodafone have surged by 15-20% since TalkTalk received an approach, the 97p offer is not reflective of the current market and significantly undervalues the current value of TalkTalk and especially the future prospects of TalkTalk as a stand-alone entity.

The current offer does not represent fair value for TalkTalk and should, in my opinion, now be rejected forthwith by The Board and Management .

It seems to me that there will be negligible support at 97p from free-float shareholders.

The offer continues to look worse and worse by the day as the market pushes ahead strongly.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[1224saj] 10/11/2020 17:14

I want TF to be shown the door. The BOD and major shareholders must know that their fannying around has cost them and others shed loads. One of the greatest market recoveries in months and they are thinking of giving the family silver away. They should be ashamed of themselves. Do the honourable thing and let the market take this stock to fair value.

[1224saj] 10/11/2020 17:13

I want TF to be shown the door. The BOD and major shareholders must know that their fannying around has cost them and others shed loads. One of the greatest market recoveries in months and they are thinking of giving the family silver away. They should be ashamed of themselves. Do the honourable thing and let the market take this stock to fair value.

[quepassa] 10/11/2020 16:13

BT now up 10% today.

97p is an unrealistic low-ball opportunistic bid launched in highly depressed market conditions which have since rapidly and markedly improved.

The 97p offer appears more ridiculous by the day and does not come anywhere close to offering fair value for TalkTalk . The offer continues to undervalue egregiously both the current value and the future prospects the TalkTalk franchise as a stand-alone entity.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP