Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[basem1] 13/4/2017 09:48

Ex Div today for 2.7p. Nice quick payday on 12th May.

[cc2014] 07/4/2017 13:16

The Office for National Statistics said industrial output fell 0.7% compared with January, when it dropped 0.3%.
Unexpectedly warm weather drove the change, because it led to a fall in electricity and gas demand, the ONS said.
Construction output fell by 1.7% in February, down from a revised January reading of zero growth.
The construction figure, the biggest drop in nearly a year, was mainly the result of a 2.6% fall in the housebuilding sector.

Hmm - I can't dispute the figures but they don't seem to match when I see what people are telling me.

[cc2014] 07/4/2017 13:07

The sells keep flowing which by the look of the trades seem to be from one party who appears to want just over 80 to sell them. All a bit frustrating but happy to be patient

[effortless cool] 06/4/2017 13:12

Tuscan,

Interesting post, thanks. I hadn't paid much attention to the assumptions underlying the goodwill assessment but, now you mention it, it does potentially give good insight into the company's expectations for the next few years.

[cc2014] 06/4/2017 12:46

A helpful article on annuity rates


The pullback in annuity rates since December has probably not been helpful although I suggest any impact has been offset by rise in equity markets

[tuscan4] 05/4/2017 16:50

Thoughts on the Annual Report.
Slightly concerned about the CGU assumptions on P 112. Seems to have been a marked slowdown in Revenue Growth Assumptions out to 2019. Also Margin expectations lower also beyond 2019. Discount Rate however is lower and Life expectations are now Falling . Not sure how academic this exercise is.
Comfort taken from the available market for the group More Than Doubling, also the increasing technology within the business which should raise barriers to entry.
Workforce structure is great with commitment to apprentices. Fairly high average remuneration but pay rates not leaping away. Directors seem a little overpaid. They act like managers rather than owners hence their limited exposure to the Equity and indeed their apparent unconcern over the value of the company.
Small dividend increase almost certainly due to Pension shortfall. No real worries on the Deficit, easily manageable I believe, but a rise in yields would eliminate worries.
Why no increase in Capital Expenditure with the new Stanstead facility almost up and running?
Some worries on rising input costs, but presumably they make allowances in their tender pricing.
Looking for £8m pre-tax this year,share price well north of 110p Brexit or not.
Management deserve applause for the transformation of the group over the last 5 years.

[dozey3] 05/4/2017 16:16

Perhaps the markets are now turning towards Brexit mode, where more uncertainty as to domestic investment and activity can be expected. For sure the present order book is great and the 'positive' outlook reassuring. But how much of the future can that encompass? One year or perhaps two at most I suspect, and Mr Market is looking beyond the U.K. and that sort of time scale.
I somewhat foolishly added before the results, expecting even better news, but whilst prepared to hold this quality company for the longer term can see the argument for potential new investors holding off even at these low prices.

[larva] 05/4/2017 12:07

accident prone



brexit will lead to slowdown in work

[rivaldo] 05/4/2017 11:50

You'd think CTO are ready for a serious re-rating.

It has £9.3m of cash against a £34m m/cap, and the forecast for this year is 11.26p EPS with a 3.46p dividend.

That's a P/E of just 7.19 and a 4.3% dividend yield. With 27% of the m/cap in cash, the ex-cash P/E probably drops to only 5.5 or so.

[ivancampo] 05/4/2017 09:07

Think we're nearly ready for the next move up, quoted 84.94 for 50k, has been 81.

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 18:58

“Despite a relatively subdued rise in new work during March, UK construction firms reported a more sanguine assessment of their year-ahead growth prospects. Business confidence was among the highest seen since the end of 2015, which construction companies linked to upcoming tender opportunities, plans for increased marketing expenditure and hopes of a sustained recovery in clients’ willingness to spend.”

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 16:43

Well end of the day and someone selling into weak construction figures albeit just lower growth than before.

I guess I will have to wait until trading statement for some visibility on growth which I'm sure is there.

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 14:34

Still can't tell if seller finished or not or whether it is one seller or just random sells but at least I can unravel today's trades now.
24.5k at 79.25 a sell which seems to have been sbsorbed by 2*10k buys at 79.88 plus some other buys between 79.5 and 80.0
2*13k sells at 79.25 and 79.5 which seem to have been absorbed by those 15k buys from earlier in the day

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 10:36

Here are my eps project growth for next year. I've redone post 1819 as I've now had time to investigate the pension payment for next year. Thanks to Tuscan. If you read page 125 of their annual report from last year the employers pension contribution has fallen £0.3m not increased by £1.0m

Underlying profit 2016 £6.9m
Additional profit from 10% increase in turnover 0.7m
Additional profit from 0.5% margin improvement 1.5m (same level of increase as this year)
Reduction in finance/interest costs 0.2m (elimination of revolving credit facility)
Reduction in pension contribution 0.3m
Predicted profit for 2017 £9.6m.

The year end tax planning is a good point. I myself have been flipping some losers to gain some tax losses. Others here may be banking their profits to maximise their zero rate allowance.

[basem1] 04/4/2017 09:25

Fwiw I don't think we have a seller here, it's just the end of tax year and chart playing out. Imo we are worth circa £1.25 share, my primary concern is the lack of eps growth projections for next year but we still have to play catch up for this years improved performance. 50% upside is still fantastic.

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 08:40

Looks like seller still going to me. Question is how many do they have left? It's been going on a while now.

[cc2014] 03/4/2017 09:04

AGM 5th May

[rivaldo] 31/3/2017 10:22

RNS yesterday noted that the AGM is on 5th April - so not long till we get a trading update which should be pretty bullish:

[tjbird] 31/3/2017 08:55

Hope to get a few if retrace to 68-70p area

Tough market to play in. Assume nothing in chronicle today?

[ivancampo] 31/3/2017 08:07

Not yet, think we need to see a large block trade to confirm.

[cc2014] 30/3/2017 22:26

Large seller may have finished today. Let's see what happens tomorrow

[tuscan4] 30/3/2017 15:33

Thanks Rivaldo.
N+1 Singer EPS forecast for 2016 was seriously adrift. I think they will be equally out this year.

[rivaldo] 30/3/2017 14:59

The real mid-price currently is 81.5p (80p-83p spread), up 1p today - the thread header is wrong.

For the record, the latest forecasts from N+1 Singer are:

this year : 11.26p EPS, 3.46p dividend
next year : 11.44p EPS, 3.56p dividend

[allstar4eva] 30/3/2017 12:09

More delayed trades. Seller still about by the look of things...