Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 05/4/2017 11:50

You'd think CTO are ready for a serious re-rating.

It has £9.3m of cash against a £34m m/cap, and the forecast for this year is 11.26p EPS with a 3.46p dividend.

That's a P/E of just 7.19 and a 4.3% dividend yield. With 27% of the m/cap in cash, the ex-cash P/E probably drops to only 5.5 or so.

[ivancampo] 05/4/2017 09:07

Think we're nearly ready for the next move up, quoted 84.94 for 50k, has been 81.

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 18:58

“Despite a relatively subdued rise in new work during March, UK construction firms reported a more sanguine assessment of their year-ahead growth prospects. Business confidence was among the highest seen since the end of 2015, which construction companies linked to upcoming tender opportunities, plans for increased marketing expenditure and hopes of a sustained recovery in clients’ willingness to spend.”

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 16:43

Well end of the day and someone selling into weak construction figures albeit just lower growth than before.

I guess I will have to wait until trading statement for some visibility on growth which I'm sure is there.

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 14:34

Still can't tell if seller finished or not or whether it is one seller or just random sells but at least I can unravel today's trades now.
24.5k at 79.25 a sell which seems to have been sbsorbed by 2*10k buys at 79.88 plus some other buys between 79.5 and 80.0
2*13k sells at 79.25 and 79.5 which seem to have been absorbed by those 15k buys from earlier in the day

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 10:36

Here are my eps project growth for next year. I've redone post 1819 as I've now had time to investigate the pension payment for next year. Thanks to Tuscan. If you read page 125 of their annual report from last year the employers pension contribution has fallen £0.3m not increased by £1.0m

Underlying profit 2016 £6.9m
Additional profit from 10% increase in turnover 0.7m
Additional profit from 0.5% margin improvement 1.5m (same level of increase as this year)
Reduction in finance/interest costs 0.2m (elimination of revolving credit facility)
Reduction in pension contribution 0.3m
Predicted profit for 2017 £9.6m.

The year end tax planning is a good point. I myself have been flipping some losers to gain some tax losses. Others here may be banking their profits to maximise their zero rate allowance.

[basem1] 04/4/2017 09:25

Fwiw I don't think we have a seller here, it's just the end of tax year and chart playing out. Imo we are worth circa £1.25 share, my primary concern is the lack of eps growth projections for next year but we still have to play catch up for this years improved performance. 50% upside is still fantastic.

[cc2014] 04/4/2017 08:40

Looks like seller still going to me. Question is how many do they have left? It's been going on a while now.

[cc2014] 03/4/2017 09:04

AGM 5th May

[rivaldo] 31/3/2017 10:22

RNS yesterday noted that the AGM is on 5th April - so not long till we get a trading update which should be pretty bullish:

[tjbird] 31/3/2017 08:55

Hope to get a few if retrace to 68-70p area

Tough market to play in. Assume nothing in chronicle today?

[ivancampo] 31/3/2017 08:07

Not yet, think we need to see a large block trade to confirm.

[cc2014] 30/3/2017 22:26

Large seller may have finished today. Let's see what happens tomorrow

[tuscan4] 30/3/2017 15:33

Thanks Rivaldo.
N+1 Singer EPS forecast for 2016 was seriously adrift. I think they will be equally out this year.

[rivaldo] 30/3/2017 14:59

The real mid-price currently is 81.5p (80p-83p spread), up 1p today - the thread header is wrong.

For the record, the latest forecasts from N+1 Singer are:

this year : 11.26p EPS, 3.46p dividend
next year : 11.44p EPS, 3.56p dividend

[allstar4eva] 30/3/2017 12:09

More delayed trades. Seller still about by the look of things...

[coolen] 29/3/2017 21:30

The 37,500 @ 80.93p was traded at 10.41; Reported at 10.51.
So yes, a delay of sorts.

As you suggest, the sale may have been linked to earlier in the morning when, between 8.30 a.m and 10.00 a.m, "buys" amounting to 40,000 were traded @ around 82p.

Jobbers sometimes offer "protection", ie. early on in the day, they agree to take half your stock without "trade-reporting". They report the whole trade only when they shift the balance of the order.

So yes, you are correct.

[cc2014] 29/3/2017 20:26

I suggest it's delayed. In my experience anything over and including 10k usually gets delayed. I agree it's not reported as delayed but I'd be astonished if it isn't.

[coolen] 29/3/2017 18:11

The 37,500 was not delayed.
However, tonight's 56,651 @ 80p was actually traded Tuesday, after hours.

[cc2014] 29/3/2017 15:40

I'm rather hoping that the 37,500 trade at 80.93 is delayed and has been holding the price back and that most of it has cleared through now.

[tuscan4] 29/3/2017 10:28

The order book is interesting,having risen from £33om at end December to £350m at end February. This implies( with sales of £50m in the first two months, an order intake of £70m or an annualised rate of £420m for 2017.
Are the worries over the pension contributions overdone? The funding rate appears to have fallen from the 21.7% in the 2016 interim report to 21.4% and the new contributions mentioned appear little different to those already outlined. These new payments are not I feel an additional overhead so the effect on margins is fairly small.
The tax charge seems to have been inflated by the fraud so this should revert to 20% in 2017.
Prospects for this year imo are: Pre-Tax £8m EPS 15p(plus) Net cash at year end (say) £12m of which £7m is CTO money. Ex this cash the prospective P/E ratio is 4.2
Can there be better value elsewhere in the market?

[ir35] 28/3/2017 23:47

CC2014
The order book was 330m at the year end and 350m at the end of February - they said that in the results RNS.

[rivaldo] 28/3/2017 22:57

The dividend was 3.1p for the last couple of years through the bad times - on such a large yield a small rise to 3.2p is sensible and in line with a policy which is now likely to see the dividend rise consistently.

This year's dividend is forecast to be 3.5p, which is more than enough for me at the current share price.

This morning's action was imo from a combo of short-term traders plus those who hadn't properly researched the pension and/or the fraud.

I'm fully expecting CTO to quickly bounce back to 90p and more given the positive outlook, the cheap fundamentals and the cash pile - there should be some decent press/tip attention over the coming weeks.

[ivancampo] 28/3/2017 22:19

That old chestnut of Directors putting their money where their mouth is would be welcomed.

[dozey3] 28/3/2017 22:15

Another thing: the dividend must have disappointed. A miserly 0.1p increase is hardly worth the candle. It will be a welcome surprise if directors remuneration is equally restrained.