Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[stockhunters] 17/8/2020 17:11

market makers waiting for sellers

[bignads] 17/8/2020 16:30

Worth cutting and pasting the Finncap report (Finncap.com; available for free to all registered users) section on Synairgen's valuation, as it is evident that the assumptions used to reach their £3.60 current valuation will be blown out of the water by regulatory approval and early sales into the market. Based on adjusting for these two factors, valuation would go above £10 on any announcement of approval and indication of sales.

Extract below:

'We value SNG001 (for COVID-19) at c.£478m (320p per share) on a risk-adjusted basis, using the following assumptions in our DCF, which follows a typical sales cycle with product launching in 2-3 years’ time and peak sales achieved in 5 years post-launch. As indicated in previous reports, this is very simplistic, given the emergency nature of the current COVID crisis:

£1.25bn peak sales. Given the size of the market, peak sales could be substantially higher and the sales curve could peak much sooner than our model indicates, particularly if governments or national agencies buy the product ahead of the winter 2020 flu season. The rNPV would also be substantially higher if governments see SNG001 as a broad spectrum antiviral treatment that should be stockpiled for future pandemics or used routinely to treat seasonal winter infections (influenza) where hospital pneumonia is a substantial issue.

50% probability of successfully reaching the market. Given the clear need for a treatment, sales and marketing expenses would be minimal.

Discount rate of 10%.

We increase our target price from 120p to 360p based on a sum-of-the parts DCF (Figure 1), which also includes c.38p for SNG001 (COPD) and the economic interest that Synairgen has in Pharmaxis’s LOXL2 programme.'

[allin] 17/8/2020 16:28

Co did say further analysis of the data over coming WEEKS but move rapidly towards regulatory approval.Must be mid to end of this exercise.

[frosty sparks] 17/8/2020 16:26

Very small hat, or VERY big head ??



🤔

[festario] 17/8/2020 16:24

Nice reversal, it all bodes very well.

[sloppyjoe2] 17/8/2020 14:51

Strongbuy - do you end *every* post with rockets? They might have more impact if you saved them for when they were justified?

[strongbuy] 17/8/2020 14:46

Anyone see anything mentioned ??🚀🚀

[sloppyjoe2] 17/8/2020 14:01

Disappointing price action - and volume - today. Right now doesn't look like a stock where big news is about to drop...