Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 21/7/2020 19:19

I think the government will secure a certain amount as they did with the trial vaccines...


I don't think they would have problems recruiting patients for Phase III - there are spikes in cities, here and in countries around the world.


France, Spain, India, US, S Africa, Brazil, Serbia...

[dave444] 21/7/2020 19:19

I wonder if Polar have stills been putting massive buys at a controlling price which would explain the erratic day we have had

[dave444] 21/7/2020 19:11

Avacta was a basket case and needed the money!

[dave444] 21/7/2020 19:07

The likely scenarios:1 - Trump buys 90% of production (do not underestimate this as he has done it on Remdesivir)2 - emergency use authorization within days3 - Pharma takeover All would rocket the price dramatically upwards After that:4 - COPD results 5 - Home testing results

[nobbygnome] 21/7/2020 18:51

FWIW I am pretty certain they will get conditional approval on the back of this data. Under the current circumstances the regulators would be mad not to. Safety would be the worry for a phase II drug but SNG001 has been in hundreds of patients in the three trials with a very benign profile.

Just IMHO of course...

[stoneme] 21/7/2020 18:47

Wow.I was trying to get my head around the market size , margins etc This provides a pointer.Does anyone have info on what the product may market for, market size (UK and WW) and what net margin could be earned?

[ambyth] 21/7/2020 18:44

Thanks SPQStrader.

Yes, the VOX discussion was bad.

I think there is, for whatever reason, incredibly a real misunderstanding of the import of what SNG have achieved and its potential globally, which to me means it is still significantly under-valued. On some level that is good for us as we can add more before the reality kicks in/the penny drops.

It seems like the world media can't/won't accept, or process, that a small UK company has such a key breakthrough that will make a massive difference to survival, quality of life, hospitalisation costs and the economy.

We could really do with some Governmental support for this groundbreaking Treatment instead of the "non"-news vaccine trumpeting.

[oranolio] 21/7/2020 18:42

‘Valuing the Covid-19 opportunity is nigh on impossible; however, we upgrade our target price to 360p but recognise this could go substantially higher, based on upcoming discussions with regulators, which should clarify the route to market and the potential for buying SNG001 ahead of the winter 2020 flu season and the possibility of a second wave of Covid-19,’ he said.

‘Based on pricing points for [potential Covid-19 treatments] Rebif and Avonex and Gilead’s remdesivir ($2,000-3,000 per treatment), and the prospect of Synairgen being able to supply up to one million doses by the end of 2020, it is not inconceivable that an order book of $2-3bn could be generated by the year-end, which would imply a valuation substantially higher than 360p (circa £0.5bn market cap).’

[spqstrader] 21/7/2020 18:30

Ambyth, difficult to give timescales as it depends on how fast the company moves, or more importantly how quickly they agree on collaborating with other countries, as well as regulatory authorities and potential licensing deals with larger pharmas. I listened to the VOX podcast and was a bit shocked at the level of ignorance from this chap Vadim. An RCT is the strongest independent level of research that can happen and the fact that it was a small pilot study that still gave such robust results, would suggest the signal is indeed reproducible. The CIs were not vastly wide for a small study, and many treatments are given Class 1B recommendation for use just based on a single RCT. This largely depends on an independent body expert assessment and SNG will be discussing this with regulators.

[zen12] 21/7/2020 18:26

Thing about approvals is that the Doctors I would think can still use the kit for'Research' without approval. FDA can issue emergency authorisation overnight - Remember Trump's hydroxychloroquine claim where they issued it before even a trial had commenced!

[wetdream] 21/7/2020 18:13

Not sure what the point of a larger (Phase III) trial would be, since there’s no competition to SNG001, and they’ve already proved it’s safe and works.

[ambyth] 21/7/2020 18:13

SPQStrader > Absolutely with you on your last few posts here.

Thanks for sharing your insight and views.

Do you have a view on SNG timescales to approval/s and also any key milestones with range of share price in mind too?

(I realise the routes may differ: Collaboration, Licensing or Takeover etc.)

[1gw] 21/7/2020 18:10

Just a few delayed trades reported then.

[dave444] 21/7/2020 18:09

Who hasn't got over 100k in here?

[spqstrader] 21/7/2020 18:00

Dave444, what do u mean 'research'? Do u seriously think with over 100k shares in here I wasn't aware of that?Clearly you never followed Avacta's second placing that caught most people by surprise. The fact the large fund bought into this on the open market at a premium suggests to me that won't happen.Otherwise I may have been concerned that they could easily have had an excuse to raise funds for a larger trial, with govt backing already mentioned. I think big pharmaceuticals will be talking to them about collaborating and potential licensing deals, whilst countries like the US may give emergency FDA approval with an EUA in the context of collecting larger sets of data.

[spqstrader] 21/7/2020 17:48

Indeed, the licensing deals will be massive and that's why Polar Capital have invested up to 7% in the company. Incidentally, I watched the Bloomberg interview and I must say that Richard Marsden needs to come across more convincing and less hesitant. It's no point talking about 'ordinal scales' to a news reporter who has no clue what that means and just wants to know 'does the drug work or not". I'm surprised executives in that position can't talk the talk. He's a business person, not a scientist, yet even Stephen Holgate came across so much more concise and articulate in the journalist briefing yesterday. Clearly Richard needs to take some lessons from the CEO of Avacta.

[dave444] 21/7/2020 17:42

They just raised a large amount to cover them!Research

[tidy 2] 21/7/2020 17:31

SNG001 controls all respiratory viral pathogens which will probably include disease X yet unknown pathogens. All strains of viruses and it is a naturally produced protein in your Body so your body will not reject it. SNG001 is patented for use by Sng alone so they could also do licensing deals.

[tidy 2] 21/7/2020 17:27

The last funding was with the foresight of anticipating supplies of up to 100k treatments per month which suppliers were told back in April to prepare for Bonza