Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[risa5] 18/8/2020 08:31

Its ok I found out.

[risa5] 18/8/2020 07:53

Any idea when the share buy back will end?

[graham86] 17/8/2020 23:52

Cash balance of $55.9 million after share buybacks during Q4.
I have absolutely no doubt that their is a positive cash balance.The fact remains that information in ic and seemingly other publications is wrong.This to me matters.The results of the stock screens and tips are monitored and reported in early new year additions. Tips show little or no profit.The stock screens show profit.the momentum and garp show good profits.this for me is good point to start from.If i find a share that looks ok and is in these stock screens i will buy.It seams i am paying a dog and having to bark myself.

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 21:21

Yes Luff you are correct and I model that daily as well so if you see my earlier posts I hedge my bets by saying $50m plus. However they will have a currency expert buying forward and doing deals to get best value. In their reports they always state the zar dollar exchange rate as a note of caution But then in trading And dividend terms we are looking at the dollar pound rates. It all balances out in the end

[luffness] 17/8/2020 21:15

Though just to be picky - as stated the cash is mainly held in SAR so the actual USD figure will vary with the exchange rate

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 21:14

Mr a translate this is my last post tonight I’m going to watch dark on Netflix which is a wonderful German series based on time travel and a mystery. The mystery of SLP’s capex is on their website just download the reports. It’s to do with commissioning new mines, new procedures for processing the tailings to get the PGM and other forward thinking infrastructure projects
They’re all in detail. The annoying fact about these quotes from the journalists Is that they are broadly historic and the full year results are due out the 1st week of September if they follow previous years timings

[oniabsta] 17/8/2020 21:14

Thanks Mr S. Yes, it is another positive, fingers crossed :-)

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 21:08

Oniabsta Liberium are SLP’s brokers they have an informed opinion. In their previous pre covid update they were looking at an 11.6 cent payout. That has now reduced to 5.6c pay out. That doesn’t happen without guidance pre closed period from the directors of the company.

[mratranslate] 17/8/2020 20:58

re cash conversion - it says in the alpha report that operating cash conversion should be >90%. SLP in last FY accounts showed cash from operating activities of $ 17.4M in 2019 but only a $7.77M net change in cash - this is only 44%... $8.29M was spent on capital expenditures?? I am invested and long but I don't understand why the cash conversion is so low or what the $8M was spent on without doing more research

[neilunderwood] 17/8/2020 20:54

Mr S

It does indeed, thanks for pointing that out

"Cash balance of $55.9 million after share buybacks during Q4."

[oniabsta] 17/8/2020 20:53

Thanks Mr S. Mean no offence but it is an assumption by Liberum and not a stated intention. Still, as an income seeker I hope it pans out.

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 20:48

Neil read the Liberium report below and also everyone just go to the SLP official website look at the 4th quarter update and accounts and you can see in black and white that it has over $50m cash in the bank. I don’t know how or where stockopedia or fool et al gather their info but I just study and model based on the official releases from SLP and authorised resources such as Liberium

[neilunderwood] 17/8/2020 20:45

Stockopedia has the net debt as -33M. As its debt then a minus is a positive so 33M in the bank.

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 20:44

Liberian issued a new note on SLP last week BUY Target Price 105.0p - Publication Price 51.0p Sylvania Platinum Heading back up past the highs We expect the underlying strength in platinum group metal prices (PGMs) and weakening South African Rand to drive Sylvania’s share price even higher. The fundamentals for PGMs are improving, with global car sales growth having positively inflected in June. Visible stocks of palladium and rhodium are already low and there is minimal supply growth potential in the years ahead. Further operational lockdowns in South Africa are a risk, but the impact will be offset by even higher prices. The shares are trading at a 40% FCF yield on spot prices, making it our top pick "Capable of paying a bumper dividend With cash balances of $55.9m and no large capital expenditures planned, the company is very well placed to pay a much higher dividend this year. We are currently assuming a dividend of 5.8 cents per share, equivalent to a 25% payout ratio, 9.1% dividend yield and over 5 times higher than the dividend paid out last year. Clearly, with the uncertain operational outlook caused by COVID, we wouldn’t be surprised if management consider it prudent to pay a smaller dividend for the time being and further extend its share buyback program. We believe that Sylvania’s outlook remains very good for the medium term and that further dividend increases will be easy payable in the years ahead."

[oniabsta] 17/8/2020 20:27

Mr Stephens "a stated intention to pay a dividend of at least 4.6p"
could you kindly direct me to where slp stated this?

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 19:50

Nimrod maybe I’m wrong but I’m sticking in there. P/e is under 3 on current share price and adjusted for cash it’s under 2. Dividend is nit usually factored in until it becomes a fact so I think SLP will break the 67p high and some plus the dividend. I think a results announcement that shows a 180% increase in profits after tax with a strong forecast of approx 20% increase for 2020-21 plus a good dividend will support my view. But then if you look back on my posts I’ve held this even when it dropped below 40p. Good luck

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 19:42

Graham I was as confused as you were. It’s a positive article for SLP but some of the pointers were not comprehensively explained particularly how it failed one test on operating cash conversion. I have written several times to the editor when there have been queries but they never respond. Frankly I find it rude when you pay a subscription that you don’t even get an acknowledgement. Let the share price and the results hopefully after the bank holiday do the talking. No word from Simon Thompson either since pre covid. I wonder why?

[nimrod22] 17/8/2020 19:35

I've taken quite a few mini top-slices so as to bank profits in SLP, though it appears to becoming a daily event!! Its unlikely that there will be any surprises in the final results, only the dividend % remains open, and is probably being continuously factored in to the share price Barring any dramatic world events, I guess its onward and up for a few weeks/months to come.
It will be interesting what the longer term interaction will be between less use of petrol/diesel cars demand for PGMs and the requirement for the Hydrogen economy that's on the way. I had 8 different Hydrogen fuel stocks in the past few months, but have bailed on them while they are going through a dip, though there is much more to come.

[graham86] 17/8/2020 19:26

Mr Stephens thanks for that.shall never understand a (-)sign.
You would think that with the ability ic have to write so many article that say absolutely nothing they could at least make it a little clearer.

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 19:24

South Africa will significantly relax its restrictions on Tuesday, including allowing the sales of liquor and cigarettes, as it appears the country has weathered its first peak of Covid-19 cases. With numbers of cases and hospitalisations declining, the country will further loosen its regulations to permit the opening of bars, restaurants, gyms, places of worship and entertainment, all with distancing restrictions.

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 18:51

Graham i don’t think they can have got it that wrong. 25m debt based on history it’s 25m positive surplus cash
It has a minus (-) sign in front of it which if you compare to other shares indicates a surplus at least I hope they haven’t. If we stick to the facts published by SLP. The Q4 update from SLP actually states they had $55.9m cash in the bank but I think these tipsters go on published yearly and half yearly figures. There is no debt with a published $50m plus cash surplus and a stated intention to pay a dividend of at least 4.6p

[graham86] 17/8/2020 17:53

Sylvania Platinum SLP £152 56 3 0.17 1.4% 35.2% 12.3% 33.2% -25m USD 6 /Cash Conv/

[graham86] 17/8/2020 17:42

Investors Chronical GARP (growth at a reasonable price)showing 25m debt

[mr stephens] 17/8/2020 17:04

Investors Chronical feature SLP in their alpha report only available to online subscribers so can’t send link. It’s on Algy Halls GARP (growth at a reasonable price) screen. In the aim company section it’s one of the top performers and passes 6 out of 7 of the garp screen tests. No other share does better. Quote “this approach is not overly exacting but over the years it has proved a very effective way of identifying great investment opportunities when combined with other factors that suggest there are solid foundations to the value and growth measure used by the ratio”
SLP is mentioned as resurging

[plat hunter] 17/8/2020 15:14

The quoted Rhodium price is the finished refined product, sold over the counter with the price set by the refinerSLP only produce and sell a concentrate.Concentrate is purchased by many industries for many different uses But if you was a pgm refiner like JMAT, you'd buy the concentrate for your catalyst systems and or refine for other advance uses and pure bullion.Imagine being a sugar cane farmer, you wouldn't expect to get paid the same value that tate and lyle sell a bag of sugar for would you?A little more nuanced in reality but thats a good start