Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[barnaberible] 02/3/2020 20:40

Mr Stephens - I seriously doubt you’ll get an answer regarding the dividend, but you can try

[barnaberible] 02/3/2020 20:33

Hi Preciousm - while you’re here can you provide a reference for your post regarding all Japanese car plants being shut that you posted the other day, I’d be interested in reading it.

Thanks in advance

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 19:20

Then I agree with an earlier post from Gary
I will call him tomorrow and ask why liberium give guidance of 11.8p this year and 16p next year
As gary said this could be misleading
Also strange why the price has been low that liberium have not executed the share buyback

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 19:14

The production figures are 60% platinum
26% palladium and 14% rhodium
These are taken from the detailed report produced by SLP. They are calculated mine by mine
Not sure why the ceo quotes 12% but it’s not material in terms of effect
I have run a daily financial model in excel based on the spot prices of all three PGM based on SLP data for production
A drop in platinum even to its low in the last 5 years of $800 would not significantly affect the basket price
Depending on which sites you look at the PGM price has a high of $2867and a low of $2633
The low minus production costs and capex
Applied to 18,000 ozs fir q3 and q4 is how I produced my net profit and cash in the bank forecasts on an earlier post
And as for corona virus of course there is a risk but SLP Jane already sold Q3’s production to the smelters and q4’sis already committed
China is not the only market for vehicle upgrades
India is just as important for example
Again I’ve highlighted this in earlier posts
They have a massive fleet of diesel trucks they are producing to the new E6 standard
Also hydrogen vehicles Use Palladium
Be happy

[preciousm] 02/3/2020 18:57

He is asked about divi, make of it what you will but look at the body language
I think he has other plans

[gary1966] 02/3/2020 18:43

Yes because they produce 5 times as much Platinum as they do Rhodium so in terms of revenue a $100 drop in the Platimum price would have the same effect as a $500 drop in Rhodium price.

[preciousm] 02/3/2020 18:34

I don’t think so, listen he then says $500 movement in Rhodium is like just $100 in Platinum to the co.
If you know different please direct me to where you get that info, but I tend to go with what the ceo says, thanks

[gary1966] 02/3/2020 18:32

Your confusing % of material as opposed to revenue split, but you probably knew that.

[preciousm] 02/3/2020 18:30

So at 65% don’t you need to be more concerned with the price of Platinum which has halved in the last seven yrs.

[preciousm] 02/3/2020 18:24

Don’t believe all you read on these boards. There is a lot of misinformation

E.g. the split of revenues. Listen to the interview from 2wks ago here and the CEO states that Rhodium is 12%
He also sees the price returning to 3-5000.

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 16:25

I still think the profits are under forecast
If you check my posts I was on the money with q2 and criticised the company and liberium for not providing an update
Based on the PGM basket price SLP will hit net $20m in q3 and q4
This would give a cash balance if $53m in q3 and $72m in q4
Note I think it could be more depending on the quality of the output
This does not include the cash from the sale of gravisly if it completes
So at the current market cap 50% would be covered in cash
Totally undervalued

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 15:55

Gary please share with us the reply from slp regarding the dividend

[eeza] 02/3/2020 15:49

Yes, ST is saying there is 65% upside UP TO my new target price.
i.e 65% from where we are to his new target.

[gary1966] 02/3/2020 15:31

Mr Stephens,

If you do the maths 65% upside from 54.5p brings you to the new target price of 90p, I think you are being too hopeful and reading too much into it.

I have contacted the company to see if they can confirm in an RNS those reported dividend levels as it carries some weight that they are stated by the house broker and could be construed as misleading if the reality is materially different. Their dividend policy is vague at best and doesn't allow for a quantum to be established.

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 15:18

Sorry don’t agree Richard
His target price last year was 60p based on a net profit after tax of $20m

This is the exact Quite

“Offering 65 per cent further upside to my new target price of 90p, last week’s pull-back is a buying opportunity“

Further upside to my new target price

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 15:18

Sorry don’t agree Richard
His target price last year was 60p based on a net profit after tax of $20m

This is the exact Quite

“Offering 65 per cent further upside to my new target price of 90p, last week’s pull-back is a buying opportunity“

Further upside to my new target price

[richardhewson] 02/3/2020 14:46

Mr Stephens, I think you may be mistaken in your reading that Simon Thompson is suggesting a posible further 65% upside beyond his target of 90p here. There may well be significant further upside given time (I think the prospects here are excellent), but what ST is saying is that the 90p target represents a 65% upside to the 54.5p share price on which he bases his article today.

[cambourne] 02/3/2020 13:45

New Target 90P Investors Chronicle Today

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 13:39

The top tipster and the in house broker setting a share target that is double the current price
A share buyback
A huge dividend
I agree

[lees65] 02/3/2020 13:32

On top of that it seems, like gold, this is a safe haven?

[lees65] 02/3/2020 13:29

Sylvania’s mind-blowing earnings upgrades
I suggested buying shares in Sylvania Platinum (SLP:54.5p), a cash-rich, fast-growing, low-cost South African producer and developer of platinum, palladium and rhodium, ahead of the £154m market capitalisation company’s interim results and earnings upgrades (‘Exploiting market anomalies’, 10 February 2020). The scale of them is mind blowing.
Liberum Capital's net profit forecast for 12 months to 30 June 2020 is US$59m (£45m), or US$40m more than the house broker was forecasting last September; its net cash estimate of US$59m (16p a share) is US$9m more than I predicted in my February article, and is almost treble the US$21m cash pile in June 2019; and dividend per share estimates of 15.3¢ (11.8p) for the 2019/20 financial year, rising to 20.8¢ (16p) the year after, equate to 56 per cent of the current share price. Strip out the cash pile, and Sylvania’s shares are valued on 2.4 times Liberum’s current year EPS forecasts of 21¢ (16p), falling to 1.2 times the broker’s 2020/21 EPS estimate of 26¢ (20p) after adjusting for June 2021 estimated net cash of $111m (30p a share).
Aim-traded shares have almost quadrupled in value since I included them, at 14.5p, in my market-beating 2018 Bargain Shares portfolio. Offering 65 per cent further upside to my new target price of 90p, last week’s pull-back is a buying opportunity.

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 13:22

So we st at 90p target price rising to a possible £1.48p
Possible St bounce today and on Friday when the printed edition hits the shelves
Liberium target price of £1.10
Possible bounce when they announce the share buyback on RNS (if it goes ahead)Which is due to be executed before 31st March
Q3 results hopefully above forecast around April 17th
Dividends according to the in-house broker of 11.8p per share

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 13:13

ST also states there is 65% further upside to his new target price
He also re quotes Liberians dividend estimate of 11.8p a share for year ending 2020 rising to 16p a share for the following year

[mr stephens] 02/3/2020 12:59

Yes he tips on several shares but does a general intro on corona virus and the markets

I am far from complacent about the global economic impact of coronavirus. But I am also aware that the stock market’s discounting mechanism is already factoring in, and overly so in the case of many small-cap companies in my hunting ground, a lasting negative impact that may never materialise.