Supermarket Income Reit Share Discussion Threads

[flyer61] 14/11/2023 15:49

Really glad I completely exited EPIC and alighted here!

Continuing to hold.

[madmix] 14/11/2023 15:13

Yes, I'm hunting for stuff that hasn't bounced much from the bottom.

GABI still yielding 10.8%, but I've already got quite a few so looking to spread my risk.

[chucko1] 14/11/2023 15:10

I like the infra stuff generally around 8-10% (e.g. SEQI). Also, things like SREI just sat there for a while looking on gormlessly. There are still some things with selling overhangs.

[madmix] 14/11/2023 15:06

Specto / chucko1,

Where do you see the best risk/reward now in these high yielders?

[chucko1] 14/11/2023 14:56

I have been selling. I like other stuff more now, taking the price/yield etc. into account.

Used to be 200bps over the long TSCO bonds. Now 100bps.

[spectoacc] 14/11/2023 14:19

Unable to resist a profit (at last), & sold chunks of mine (the first at 81p, annoyingly, the last at 83.6p).

Good luck holders. Like @chucko1, I still like SUPR, & believe the recession-resistance under-rated by the market. But there's a lot of alternative homes for cash atm, & it's competing against all of them.

[williamcooper104] 06/11/2023 10:56

https://www.edisongroup.com/research/supermarket-income-reit-progressive-dividend-policy-remains-in-place/32856/?j=123413&sfmc_sub=13270869&l=715_HTML&u=3579722&mid=536001663&jb=5

[madmix] 03/11/2023 16:17

On the subject of yields available elsewhere (from those I own / track) :

GABI 11.2% @ 56.4p
GCP 10.5% @ 66.5p
NESF 10.2% @ 81.7p
SEIT 10.1% @ 62.0p
RECI 9.2% @ 129.8p
FSFL 8.5% @ 89.2p
BSIF 8.0% @ 115.6p

Slightly off topic, given that they're not REITs.

[chucko1] 03/11/2023 14:24

Consider this: SUPR is now 1p higher than it was on June 26th when the 10yr Gilt yield was as it is today: NESF, a different animal of course, is 24p lower.

Good luck providing a convincing fundamental explanation for this, other than extreme skittishness. By chance, they have identical prices today!

[chucko1] 03/11/2023 12:02

Flyer, yes - to a point. But I have enough of them via the proxies I still have in a number of other ITs. But I feel they are more in the doghouse than even SUPR. And I also feel there is significant room for them to rally even if rates remain about here. Why? Because as rates begin to behave themselves, I see a reduction in the excessive risk premium. This is where the "free" money is, I reckon, readily available.

I see perhaps 10% upside which would represent about 117bps on 10 year rates were I to own Gilts instead. Now, that's my 3 to 3.5% target, so all in, I am looking for a 20% return a year or so and on top of that, about 9% yield (on average).

This is just one way of looking at it - there are a thousand more. I often look at it in ten different ways! But in nearly all of those ten I see excessive fear. And even if there is indeed something wild I have not accounted for, being 60% in cash and earning 5.44% is fine for my current purposes. And, as I keep saying, that high cash ratio started 2 years ago when real yields fell to MINUS 250bps (now at PLUS 122bps). It all starts from there.

[flyer61] 03/11/2023 11:01

chucko1...surely on your thinking its time to be buying bonds for the Capital kick as risk free drops?

[wskill] 03/11/2023 10:56

Sometimes I think to keep more cash I have been lucky to be in decent profit from high yield ITs THRL,SOHO,SUPR.

[chucko1] 03/11/2023 10:20

Now, as bullish as I have been on SUPR relative to other things (mostly ITs), I sold a few this morning. At a yield of 7.4% and unlikely to grow its dividend meaningfully the next year or two, I see a risk free 5.44% as decent compensation. And some other special situations.

Add to this the apparent change in mood over rates backed up by inflation beginning to behave itself, and further by comments from Powell about the extra tightening resulting from the recent move higher in UST10yr and further, the declining concerns of a recession (arguable), then some of the stand-out points supporting SUPR are slightly weakened and other alternatives (not just 5.44% in MM) are strengthened.

Being 62% in cash (well, I was until the rally in ITs, so perhaps nearer 60% now), I can buy this stuff back even at a higher price if I see a clear path to 3% to 3.5% 10yr Gilts resulting from clear signs of BoE loosening. Still see moderate further widening in real yields in the UK, although now buying US linkers in 2053 vintage.

[mister md] 03/11/2023 09:18

Good to see some of yesterday's big risers like EBOX and SUPR holding onto their gains ...

[williamcooper104] 02/11/2023 11:48

I've bought more SRC 27 bonds - they've hardly moved I took profits on SRC PRA - but if rates/credit spreads fall by c100bps they'll likely get called, so not a bad position to keep

[williamcooper104] 02/11/2023 11:45

Nice to log into your broker to see an order triggered that's not a stop loss

[cwa1] 02/11/2023 10:53

Sainsburys update can't be doing any harm on top of more positive markets generally

[flyer61] 02/11/2023 10:49

Well having cycled my EPIC money into SUPR and SRC being taken out also by O Realty how much longer can my luck hold out.....

Price action today makes me sniff something in the wind maybe....

[williamcooper104] 01/11/2023 21:29

Yep; so long as we don't WWW3; which is clearly hardly a remote risk then it's really not hard to get 12-15 IRRs in pretty low risk stuff

[chucko1] 27/10/2023 12:14

There is likely something in that, especially considering the increasingly loud war drumbeats. On top of the LDI fiasco and central bank missteps, it is hardly surprising that even the stronger REITs are trading with a chunk of fear in the price.

The only antidote is to buckle up, indeed, and with a long holding period in mind. If you can be of that mindset, one should be grateful of this market opportunity (IRRs of 10-16% aplenty). I think.

[williamcooper104] 26/10/2023 19:37

It's hard when US long treasuries are unachored with no geopolitical support trading on fears of a $2tn US deficit - which didn't matter a few weeks ago - to get a view as to where the floor is Or rather there's a floor; it's just not a very stable one So buckle up

[williamcooper104] 26/10/2023 17:51

Took a slug at 70.5 Now have a cost basis = NAV

[cwa1] 26/10/2023 16:36

Strong uncrossing with reasonable volume

[cwa1] 26/10/2023 16:05

Must be our turn to go up today...

[ian wooldridge] 25/10/2023 15:38

Management have been buying at higher prices than we are currently at, and after watching the webinar linked below, they seem really bullish going forward. Doubled my holding at 70p the other day, but looks like we might go lower still.