Supergroup Share Discussion Threads

[lew stules] 31/3/2016 15:37

On 14th March the 50 day MA fell through the 200 MA.

On the previous two occasions this happened 09/06/2014 and 09/06/2011 steep declines followed.

[nw99] 30/3/2016 08:38

Buying more here buy the dips

[value king] 29/3/2016 20:22

Clothing retailers had poor numbers a week ago and it's just got worse with the dreadful hit and miss weather over Easter.

The chart is falling over again.

[dlku] 29/3/2016 13:39

Looking a bit good

[dlku] 29/3/2016 12:18

1850p would be very very nice. nois.

[coddey] 29/3/2016 09:45

exactly. what do they gain? distribution of shares to sheep at the top of the price range.

[rubberbullets] 29/3/2016 09:08

SuperGroup (SGP.L)
Investec Securities
Price: 1550p | Target: 1850p | Rec: Buy
SuperGroup traded Christmas well in the context of tough comparables and the unusually warm weather. Retail LFL + 1.2% for 11 weeks and +13.7% on a 2-year basis, in line with the YTD 2-year run-rate. This update shows how far management has come in de-risking SuperGroup from uncontrollables such as the weather and is starting to build a nice consistent growth record. No change to forecasts. Strategic objectives remain on track with SuperGroup well placed to deliver on its longer-term growth ambitions. Reiterate Buy.

A good Retail performance given tough comps (LY LFL +12.4%) and the warm weather – Retail sales +14.6% with LFL +1.2% for the 11 weeks ending 9 Jan. On a 2-year basis, Retail LFL sales +13.7%. This is in line with the 37-week run-rate. LFL sales are stated on a reported basis, i.e. after a negative currency effect which implies an even stronger underlying performance. There was no comment on online performance, which we would expect to have been the main driver behind LFL given the industry experienced a shift from store to online pre-Christmas. Management was particularly pleased with the performance of womenswear and Idris collection. No comment on wholesale as usual.
Reiterates gross margin guidance +40bps to +60bps with the Group trading in line with its planned promotional strategy pre-Christmas and focused clearance post, both online and in-store. Mix of clearance was different, versus last year, with less womenswear this year and more outerwear.
No changes to FY16e forecasts. INVe FY16e PBT of £72.5m. vs consensus of £72.2m. This includes US losses of £3-3.5m.
Valuation (CY16e PE c.20x) does not reflect long-term global growth potential with risk to forecasts on the upside we believe. Short-term upside is expected to come from improvement in UK profitability from better execution and operational efficiencies. Over the medium term, we see SuperGroup as a European roll-out story together with growth in the ROW from its wholesale/franchise business. A roll-out in the US and potentially China is expected to be a long-term growth driver.
To access the full note please click here

Analyst: Kate Calvert [phone]




Target: 1850p

[rubberbullets] 29/3/2016 08:12

Starting to climb a stairway to heaven back to 1800p broker target

[opodio] 25/3/2016 13:30

ord Wolfson can struggle to sound cheerful at the best of times but, to judge by a 15% fall in the share price, you might think the chief executive of Next had said the sky was about to fall in. In fact, Wolfson merely gave another outing to a metaphor he used in 2011 – trading this year “may well feel like walking up the down escalator, with a great deal of effort required to stand still”.

Back then, the escalator soon started going up again and Next went on to beat its profits forecast comfortably. Such a happy outcome is possible again. Next, on Thursday, reported full-year pre-tax profits of £821m and for the current year, even with the dodgy conveyor, it predicts £784m-£858m. The top end of the range would be a 4.5% increase, which is hardly catastrophic.

[value king] 25/3/2016 11:24

Supergouup to get hit hard over the coming weeks after NXT trading update on Friday. Did you see the retail data too?



Looks a nailed on warning from Supergroup soon which should see these plummet if so.

A lot of hedge funds starting to get short on clothing retailers. Yesterday's fall was just the start.

[3rd eye] 25/3/2016 09:19

Micky Flanigan!!!, sorry wouldnt know, i know his wife Alice. Lovely person.

His daughter is the well known Carla Connor, very well known in the rag trade and runs Underworld.

[36redhill] 25/3/2016 07:27

Is that Mickys brother?

[coddey] 24/3/2016 23:17

I don't follow major figures in the rag trade 3rd eye. Just saying what I see and forming my own view. If you like the share and the story stay invested. But keep a stop-loss at a suitable level is my tip if youve already made some good gains on the runup.

At this level it's a sell.

[itchycrack] 24/3/2016 21:56

If the H&S neckline breaks then 800p would be the next target.
Market will be rolling over in next week or so, no point in risking money on a stock that is likely to tank with the market. Don't get emotionally attached to shares like this, retail is cyclical in nature, next leg will be down.

[3rd eye] 24/3/2016 21:54

No Coddey not at all, Terry Flanigan, im meaning, dont say you dont know who he is.

Hes been in the rag trade for years.

You seem a very decent chap, you must have heard of him.!!!!

[coddey] 24/3/2016 19:58

You're....

Are you a broker for this stock?

[3rd eye] 24/3/2016 18:41

Your a bit naive if you ask me.

and stop talking wet, was only speaking to terry last week, he says things are RED HOT.

Things are spot on.

[coddey] 24/3/2016 17:21

yeah. must be everyone bar me. must be.

PS. I'm short. have been since 1600.

As is the founder.

[3rd eye] 24/3/2016 17:14

bottom.

stop talking silly, Germans love super drug.

They cant get enough.

the only reason for its fall today is NEXT and NEXT have gone ex growth.

Everyone bar you must have known that????????????????????

I notice you dont mention size.

This is a massive plus for SGP.

[coddey] 24/3/2016 17:09

What cyclical trend in Germany? most of the world looks poised to go to the dogs.

The Germans love quality. go to Hamburg, cologne, Munich or edgy style, Berlin. I know. I've been.

SPG, has shops or concessions in most markets world wide, fake t shirts being flogged in the far east and turkey and an mind boggling array of disparate products.

Idris Elba isn't going to do much for markets outside of the UK.

Trends come and go... do we agree on that? think of all the brands that have come and gone. so, what's next?

This isn't a growth story anymore in my eyes at all. neither the founder. he sold a fair chunk last week.

[3rd eye] 24/3/2016 16:59

Coddey this is a european play.

Please dont dwell on British operations.

The cyclical trend in Germany is just about to uptrend.

You know the Germans love their leggings and socks.

Plus because they are fat over there, SGP as a competitive advantage.

cheers

[coddey] 24/3/2016 16:49

I don't want to be over critical, it's great what they've achieved, from a small base to world wide coverage. but where's the growth coming from to justify the PE of 25+? considering most of the balance sheet value of the company is stock?

Which to my mind can easily be downgraded when sold in a sale... At this stage i really personally wish them every success but to me fair value is around the 900 - 1000 value. no more.

[mr_spock] 24/3/2016 16:43

I'm long and confident. Still plenty of growth to come I think.
One of the problems for Next is that fewer customers are buying on credit - these customers traditionally buy more and they make a bigger margin on them via the credit.