Superglass Share Discussion Threads

[slogsweep] 29/4/2009 08:50

Does anyone know how tightly these are held (directors, instutions etc.) price moves on such small volume suggests only asmall proportion of the 60m shares available. If it is only 10% then I have a disturbingly high proportion.

[brumont] 29/4/2009 08:29

sommet,
the wording of the interim statement is typical of the very cautious wording that the directors have applied for the last 2 years or so and which precipitated a fall in share price fom almost a £1 to the recent lows.If you check, you will see a history of price reversal after an announcement.
Now there is cautious and cautious, but sometimes the tone of the announcement has appeared to me to be at odds with the reality - as the next set of accounts has invariably proved.
I broadly agree with Cyber in that the share should be at the 40p level. Beyond that, will I think require a major change in market sentiment.
All imho

[hectorp] 29/4/2009 08:28

Yes, looking stronger for run up over 30p soon, FENR good results too today.

[topvest] 29/4/2009 08:27

The way I read the results were that H2 would be better. That indicates to me 8-10p EPS and a 2p final dividend.

[cockneyrebel] 29/4/2009 08:15

Stock cleared - punters going to haveto chase it now imo :-)

CR

[cyberbub] 28/4/2009 22:19

Yeah, looks like we miscalculated when the final DB tranche would be sold. That 1.3M trade at 22p (probably a worked trade over the day) represents 2.2%, we knew they had already gone below 3% so that looks like it is probably it and that they are definitely finished now. Of course they don't have to declare anything under 3%. The good news is that there is still buying going on, and even at low levels the DB holding will be mopped up in the coming days and few weeks and then we will move higher. Personally I suspect that the 500K trade may have been a buy at mid-price to take up some DB shares - otherwise surely the share price would have dropped further?

DYOR

[cyberbub] 28/4/2009 17:56

sommet, it hasn't tripled, only doubled :-) A significant difference. A lot of shares have doubled off lows, and then doubled again on results. Surely this share must be worth a p/e of 5 even in this bear market? With EPS likely to be about 8p for 2009, that would give 40p. I genuinely think these are worth a good 40p-50p, bearing in mind that they are also one of the few smallcaps (or indeed largecaps!) that are maintaining a divi at the mo, which is attractive at these prices at around 10% or more. Whether the market agrees is another matter of course! DYOR

[cockneyrebel] 28/4/2009 17:54

hmm, I don't see it like that sommet.

The co says thinks are improving. They have a guaranteed source of business from the gov.

7p eps looks likely the minimum after 3.5p eps in H1.

If you get 2p back in divi here that's a cracking yeild. But better still, the xd is early June for the final divi. So over 13 months you are getting 3p divi her as you catch the final divi and a further year's worth.

At 25p to buy, netting off the divi over 13 months the buuy price is 22p. That leaves the net PE of 3, market near the bottom and growth on the cards.

I just try to think forward a year and I bet you'll struggle to find anything on a PE less than 6 and paying a yeild over 5%.

On that basis I think these are likely to more than double over 1 year if things continue to improve and that divi suggests they will.

Sadly most have got used to jumping from stock to stock trading over the past 2 years and long term holders are hard to find. But they are returning and they'll be chasing the likes of this stock when they get tipped in the likes of SCSW imo.

I'm holding.

CR

[sommet2] 28/4/2009 17:44

Guys,
Thanks for the responses. It's nice to be able to express an opinion without being pilloried for it.I have only recently discovered SPGH and decided to wait until the interim results before investing.I pay a lot of attention to the outlook by the directors.Also when a share nearly triples in value in a matter of weeks there is a significant risk of a pullback.I had a good look at the statements made in the results for the year ended August 2008.They were confident ,even bullish.The interim results show much more caution.At around 15p this was a great buy but the directors are now telling shareholders not to expect too much in the next 6 months.I think I will follow them and sit on the sidelines for the moment.

[spectoacc] 28/4/2009 15:12

Hm so much for the last of the big sells - still awaiting the RNS that says who the buyer is..

[brumont] 28/4/2009 13:10

sommet,
this company is highly cash generative - £4.1mil in 6 months before interest.
They have reduced the divi so will retain a higher level of cash cover through the second 6 months.
Their comment re competition and new build refers to the fact that their core area of replacement is being targetted by suppliers who were previously involved in new build - it is not that the replacement market is declining.

They are depreciating their plant very quickly which is why the gross margin is low but the cash generation is so high.

[cockneyrebel] 28/4/2009 11:16

Can't buy any stock Taurus? Where you been the past few weeks :-)

Looks like the guy that bought that 210K cleaned out the last knockings of the seller.

These will definitely get tipped again by SCSW in the next issue (12 days time I think) as it's a Nap of theirs and they'll be blowing their trumpet imo.

CR

[topvest] 28/4/2009 10:20

These government schemes are likely to continue for the foreseeable future as insulation is one of the few ways of achieving the carbon targets medium term. Superglass is well positioned as one of the top three (of four suppliers) and so there future looks reasonably secure.

[nickcduk] 28/4/2009 10:09

sommet,

You are right in that the company is relying on Government hand outs to survive. However, EAGA is a company that relies almost entirely on Government funding for Warmfront and yet still has a market cap running into hundreds of millions. The new house build market is a relatively small portion of SPGH business and the strong profits over the next few years should allow large reductions in debt. Relative to a lot of stocks SPGH looks very good value.

[cyberbub] 28/4/2009 09:56

I walked out of home this morning on the way to work, one of my neighbours was having his house refurbished and there was a truckfull of rolls of roof insulation on the pavement, plastered with the brand of, yes, you guessed it... I'm not one of these mumbo-jumbo astrological stock charters, but I took it as a good omen :-) And i see that share price has ticked up again when I have got to work :-)

[spectoacc] 28/4/2009 09:41

sommet2 - entitled to your view, but a few points:
1. Everything has a price - SPGH is a £15m co here, that's all.
2. Whilst I agree on housebuilding, and tend to agree on int rates, neither is a definite.
3. Exports are dead for everyone atm; that should change.
4. Parties of both persuasions very pro the sort of schemes that are helping SPGH - and co's reliant on govnt expenditure of this nature tend to get a "premium" rating, not a big discount.
5. If the economy falls out of bed in a big way, &/or the govnt goes bust, then I agree with you; but SPGH far from alone if that happens.
6. They got heavily beaten down on the smallcap tank/debt fears, but today's statement (& divi) shows it's manageable, and they're now set fair. Whether you think the govnt should be spending our money like this is another question; fortunately for SPGH holders, they are..
(7. I'm not too sure about the competition angle tbh; I'd hope SPGH's an easy mouthful for another co rather than worth trying to out-compete).

[sommet2] 28/4/2009 09:35

Sorry guys but I do not agree. This company is surviving on the charity of the government.Outside of the government scheme their business is not profitable.Competition is strong which is another way of saying margins are tiny.A market cap of about £15m with net assets of only £2.9m , £23m of debt and negative cash of £547k.Yes I know they are making money but these government schemes are not going to last forever.I am surprised they are concerned about the level of house building because I thought most of their product would go to insulate old houses -it seems this part is diminishing.The outlook statement is cautious but bear in mind that most things are working against them.I cannot see housebuilding picking up for some years and interest rates are definitely going up in the next 12 months.If they cannot export when the pound is at near record lows against the euro this market is finished.

Onviously my opinion is not held by the market because the shares have gone up but I wonder if this is because people are focusing on the headline profit and not the real health of the business.

[hectorp] 28/4/2009 08:43

Due to its illiquidity. Stick limit orders all over your price range and might get filled. ( if buying).

[spectoacc] 28/4/2009 08:38

Small sellers going through Plus, MMs really do take the mick with that spread.

Be interested to see if SPGH get any press tomorrow.

[cyberbub] 28/4/2009 08:33

Whats that tick down all about?

[taurusthebear] 28/4/2009 08:26

Got to be a buy for the piggy-bankers, but come on, if you can't buy any stock, what's the point!? Another Mickey Mouse illiquid farty stock. :0)

[glasshalfull] 28/4/2009 08:22

Concur with above comments....outlook much improved.
Strong cashflow continues.

V good value at this price.

Regards,
GHF

[cyberbub] 28/4/2009 08:21

Yes, good results, not quite as good as I had hoped but still there is no risk to the company in any way, the divi is maintained albeit slightly reduced, and the outlook is good. I would think these must be worth 35-40p at present, and perhaps 50p-60p if the full-year results show an improvement as they predict. So well worth investing. DYOR

[topvest] 28/4/2009 08:16

Margins were hit in H1 by energy prices and raw material increases and so this should come back in H2. With increased CERT expenditure H2 looks ok. Re-based 3p total dividend looks likely. Should generate £5m of cash flow in H2 IMO.

[cockneyrebel] 28/4/2009 07:44

Look pretty decent to me. If things are improving as they say then over 7p eps looks on the cards. After 1p eps in H1 then 1p or more looks likely in H2.

So say 2p back in yield over the year, PE about 3 and a fraction or less, good cashflow and trading improving - and a lot of it gov guaranteed spend:

Outlook


The benefits of CERT and the Government's additional GBP1bn fuel poverty package
are driving demand and as a result current trading conditions have improved.
None the less, the market for insulation products in the UK in the distributor
and merchanting sectors remains difficult to predict due to the low levels of
construction activity. However, we remain positive about the Group's prospects
for the second half of the year.

All the bad news and more in the price already here if things are improving, imo. Got to be a buy in post people's books I'd have thought.

CR