Superglass Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 28/4/2009 07:43

Results themseleves just in-line, but all about the outlook, and that seems finally to be good.

A divi still being paid reflecting management confidence. £14m too cheap IMO; wouldn't surprise me to see bid interest eventually.

[topvest] 28/4/2009 07:34

Results out and reasonably robust. Pegged the dividend back to a sensible level. Outlook for second half pretty positive, all things considered.

[sos100] 28/4/2009 07:33

anyone there....interims r out.

no nasty suprises from a quick glance and small div maintained

[cyberbub] 27/4/2009 17:11

Nice finish - here we go - get in ASAP IMO, this is going to blow by Friday! NAI DYOR

[5dally] 27/4/2009 12:40

My buy not showing either good to be in at this sp

[patersdw] 27/4/2009 10:30

MMs happy to take 22.5p on the bid, 24p on offer - look to be happy to hoover up stock....

Any thoughts on where DB's holdings have gone to? Can't see it being PIs that've taken the however many millions have been sold. MM's holding on their own books awaiting the re-rating?? If the MMs are holding for their own account, we can be sure they won't be shy about pushing the price up when there's a suitable catalyst - hopefully this week's results.

Have only bought in very recently. Normally I've an aversion to companies that are this small. However, I'm really impressed by the way they manage their cash - effectively running their cash balance at near zero to maximise their debt repayment, while at the same time comfortably funding a good sized CAPEX program. That's tight. It also speaks volumes about their confidence in cashflow - no need for a "rainy day" balance 'cos the cash flow is so reliable. Either that or they're bonkers, but I go for the former! Also impressed with cash conversion.

[luckyvince] 27/4/2009 09:38

Hectorp - good to see you here. I've read your garden thread and i'm going to plant a few words there soon. So much to do at mo with work, my old mum in hospital and trying to make a few shillings.

[hectorp] 27/4/2009 09:25

cyberbub- good points.

vince .. I'm in with limits ... good luck to us.

[luckyvince] 27/4/2009 09:02

my buys not showing, so presume must be on plus.

[badday] 27/4/2009 06:56

Cyberbub, 'nap' = best bet. They chose 9no stocks which they considered good for 2009, SPGH was one of them.

[cyberbub] 26/4/2009 23:36

Hectorp, don't hesitate to jump in under 25p if you can. CIU had doubled from its low of 17p when I got in at 35p. It hung around for a few days and then when their results were declared and proved that everything was tickety boo, the share price went on to treble again... and it's still climbing! Admittedly the p/e ratio of CIU was about half that of SPGH at each relevant stage of the SP's advance. Even so, I see no reason why a realistic p/e of 4 or 5 should not be achieveable in the short term, _if_ the results are broadly in line*. Giving a share price of around 50p. In the medium term say 12-18 months, we could be back to 100p if all goes well. NAI DYOR

* I would look for the EPS at 7am on Thursday, if the half-year EPS is 4p or more then we should be sorted for a rocket!

[badday] 26/4/2009 16:05

SCSW also has them as one of their naps for 2009, price the 25p.

[nilip] 26/4/2009 15:48

Wow! - didn't realise that SCSW tipped these as a buy at 70p ?

[abc125] 26/4/2009 15:02

Just to add, this would appear grossly undervalued. I know we are in a bear market but for SPGH to trade on an historic PE of 2 would be plain silly.

Already fully loaded up here so won't be adding unless the price stays where it is next week.

Could turn into a nice long term punt.

[abc125] 26/4/2009 14:54

EPS last year was 11p, so if the article is correct and EPS comes in at a simlilar figure, current PE is 2 as cyberbub says, but I would suggest a PE of 8 is not outlandish given CERT growth prospects - that would call for a quadrupling of the share price.

[hectorp] 26/4/2009 14:20

CR
Against my better judgement ( that they have nearly doubled already) I may be in tomorrow.. we will see! as we know the ist two bagging is the easy one, but it has paused for a couple of days.
H.

[bigbigdave] 26/4/2009 12:17

Seem to recall that SPGH are an old favourite of SCSW.
May renew their coverage if results are ok.

[cockneyrebel] 26/4/2009 10:39

If the results are in line and there's no hidden nasties I'd be disappointed with 50% upside this week.

CR

[hectorp] 26/4/2009 10:37

Around 70p CR

though they are well up from lows, could be 30- 50% upside here this week .

Update from January : though they don't say conditions have improved, certain dynamics are improving... ..

We are pleased to confirm that overall trading is in line with management
expectations. ( note 'overall' infers some parts doing better than others, but you'd expect so)

"In our preliminary results announcement for the twelve months ended 31 August
2008, we said that it would be difficult to predict any immediate recovery in
the financial performance of the business whilst global economic challenges
persist. However, we also indicated that increased energy prices and a firm
commitment from the Government would help drive the demand for glass fibre
insulation, particularly in the light of the additional GBP1bn fuel poverty
package announced in September 2008.


Whilst trading conditions outside of the Carbon Emissions Reduction Targets
programme ("CERT") remain difficult, Superglass is at last experiencing
increased demand for its insulation as a result of the new CERT targets set by
the Government. Cost control also remains a key focus for the business going
forward. "

[cockneyrebel] 26/4/2009 10:23

What price did SCSW tip these at? about 70p odd I think?

CR

[cyberbub] 25/4/2009 23:37

PS if they are able to maintain the divi that would also be awesome in this climate, and at the end of the day there is no obvious reason why they need to suspend it. Their debt is modest and fixed at low rates and is coming down fast, their capital expenditure programme has finished for now, and if demand is continuing at steady levels, then with divi cover of 3x I could see them maintaining (or at worst slightly reducing) the divi. As the article states that would give a 16% or so divi for anyone getting in quick to buy on Monday morning!! :-) NAI DYOR

[cyberbub] 25/4/2009 23:32

So... Thursday it is then? Expect a steady rise in the share price early next week then hopefully! Frankly any expectation of annual profits anywhere near 'steady' should see the share price easily double from its current p/e of barely 2. The current share price factors in a pretty poor situation. I am hoping that we might be at 40-50p by Friday... NAI DYOR

[blueliner] 25/4/2009 23:31

That could be interesting, CR thks for link

[cockneyrebel] 25/4/2009 20:58

Stirling-based Superglass, whose own shares have lost 90% of their value over the past two years, could demonstrate its resilience with a solid trading update on Thursday.

Brokers at Brewin Dolphin expect to hear that the insulations group is on track to maintain annual profits at around £6m despite the slump in the new housing market as a result of increased demand from homeowners attracted by the government's rebates scheme.

They believe that hefty dividend payments could be maintained which suggests that the shares could pay out nearly £16 on every £100 invested at the present price of around 22p.