Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[elmfield] 06/10/2015 22:38

Well I did sort of warn you to take care,
Very sorry to see the fall but it looked a distinct possibility.

[pugugly] 06/10/2015 15:31

The BIG alert - for me - is left to the end of the rns - It is the Asian operations.Singapore and HongKong accounted for 11% of revenue Refs analsis and with th pressure on the EM's and the anti corruption drive in China (proxy for Hong Kong) the situation in the Asian Markets could potentially get much worse before any sign of recovery.

"On the basis of the performance in the first half, the Board now believes that, as a result of the weakness being experienced in our Asian operations and the continued illiquidity in high value stock items, it is unlikely that the Group will achieve the market forecast for the full year. "

Another worry - Could it be that the SG areas of collectibles are going out of fashion - This was what hit Mallett.

Also of couse as mentioned above the substantial overhang of shares used as currency for the takeovers.

Might also be worth while having a look at what has happened to SCHO

[its the oxman] 06/10/2015 14:24

Looking like sub 100p tomorrow. No rush here.

[superiorshares] 06/10/2015 12:39

would just like to remind you all - it appears every one of my predictions to be correct :-) Give it up for the maestro.

[deanroberthunt] 06/10/2015 12:33

with the amount of uncertainty and lack of clarity on fwd numbers, it would have to be at a significant discount to revised ratios to make it attractive......possibly 50p

[brando69] 06/10/2015 12:31

SG not looking like a Tyrian Plum investment at the moment. It's got the Prussian Blues

[robinnicolson] 06/10/2015 12:16

Peel Hunt:

The company has had a tough H1 with a combination of a number of distractions combined with a slower market in Asia. There should be a stronger H2 performance, given a refocused management team, a stronger auction period and lower cost base. There are a number of potential sales of high value items that could complete in H2 but the quantum and timing is uncertain. Overall profits are likely to fall well below prior expectations.

A tough H1. There has been considerable management distraction as the focus has been on internal issues. The departure of a number of senior executives should remove these issues, which should enable management to refocus on delivering sales and profits. It will also reduce costs by over £1m in a full year. This has combined with a weaker market in Asia which has impacted demand. As a result the first half is likely to show a small loss.

Forecasts. We have reduced our 2016E from PBT of £10m to £5m (EPS 8.7p from 17.3p) and 2017E from £11m to £7.5m (EPS 12.9p from 18.8p). As stated above there is significant uncertainty over the eventual profit out turn. The 2016E includes a £2m investment in the Marketplace rising to £2.5m in 2017E.

Net debt position. Net debt will be c£17m at the end of H1. An improved operating performance in H2 should reduce this level materially. Given the lower profitability and higher debt level we are assuming that the dividend is cut to 2.5p.

Recommendation: The level of internal issues has had a material impact on short term profitability. Hopefully these have now largely been resolved and management can refocus on opportunities rather than problems. This will take time to be evident and management need to demonstrate that the business is back on track to have a positive recommendation.

[11_percent] 06/10/2015 12:02

The management here must be doing this for some reason, they just can not be that incompetent.

[brando69] 06/10/2015 11:43

I have three used penny red stamps to sell. They are over 100 years old and very rare. I will consider swapping them for 10 stanley gibbons shares apiece. Serious offers considered. No time wasters please.

[hywel] 06/10/2015 11:39

There's a good company in here somewhere especially with Noble and Mallett, but this isn't the management to take it forward. At the very least the Chief Exec has to go. This is a disgrace after what they said on the 23rd Sept.

[jadeticl3] 06/10/2015 10:36

Bad day for investors like me who hold both SGI and BTG. Both have issued profit warnings on the same day with big falls in share price! These small companies are high risk. Should have bought safe shares like banks!!

[graham1ty] 06/10/2015 10:13

The other stupidity is that they have not given any steer as to where forecasts might go. As the results are not now for another couple of months, there is going to be silence through close period.

SG should have been wearing out the shoe leather at the end of Sept, explaining, reassuring, setting new levels of expectation. Now they are in close period and can do booger all

Madness

[eastbourne1982] 06/10/2015 09:56

Graham1TY,

Totally agree, I started buying a couple of weeks ago at just under £1.40, it was pretty obvious things were not right and they should have set the record straight during the last update, poor management and that is why it has been battered today.

[stevenlondon3] 06/10/2015 09:44

What worries me is the last sentence which includes "continued illiquidity in high value stock items" ie high prices are not being achieved which could lead to a sharp fall in values.

[graham1ty] 06/10/2015 09:44

The crazy thing is that they could have got away with the profit warning two weeks ago. We all knew something was wrong. The shares were collapsing. If in Sept they had said they were not meeting forecasts, the market would have gone " ah, now we know why" and the share price would not have fallen much further.

Doing it this way defies belief

[odvod] 06/10/2015 09:43

slow and clever liquidation is the best thing to do

[gorilla36] 06/10/2015 09:41

So two weeks ago "we will achieve target"…today "we will not achieve target". Had a small position, but sold early try. If you can't trust the management then you have no business holding a position.

[graham1ty] 06/10/2015 09:38

At this level SGI is capitalised at £50m. They paid £47m for Noble and £8.6m for Mallett. So you get the original SG business thrown in for free !!!!

I wonder at the nature of the conversations this morning: especially with the Vendors of Noble and the Placees who Took shares at 313p........

[eastbourne1982] 06/10/2015 09:04

If I was a big player I'd buy the company, it is dirt cheap currently given the assets and brand, it is being poorly managed, must be ripe for a takeover.

Great opportunity to buy in today as so much bad news is priced in.

[shanklin] 06/10/2015 09:04

Despite the alleged value of the stock, IMHO its impossible to invest here given one cannot believe anything even mildly positive that management may have to say.

[eezymunny] 06/10/2015 08:49

My best guess is that one or more potential buyers of big collections have walked away, at least for now. Only way to explain the change in such a short time, no?

Starting to look quite tempting but can only guess what Mr Market will do...

[spob] 06/10/2015 08:41

maybe when Simon says sell

we will get a chance to buy more :)