Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 26/8/2015 14:51

Graham, this sale was a result of an option award and the CEO still holds 225000 shares.
Effective tax planning aside the directors have been consistent buyers and holders of shares.

Thanks for the initial info and it will take some time to go through but I certainly don't want to get into any battle here.

My view is that these shares are certainly worth at punt at these prices and obviously you don't.

Best we leave it at that.

[graham1ty] 26/8/2015 14:23

Well done CEO Mike Hall for selling 112,000 shares at 310p last year.......

[graham1ty] 26/8/2015 14:11

China is big for stamps. However, look at the figures. Sales through the Hong Kong office rose from £2.5m to £2.6m. Ok the former is 15 months, so the % rise is not bad. Through the Singapore office sales fell from £5.8m to £3.1m. Rest of Asia, rose from £0.8m to £2.1m. Add those all up. Total "far eastern" ( ie not necessarily China's) fell from £9.2m to £7.8m. The former was 17% of Group sales. The latter 13.7%. The Far East is nice business fro SG but not going to bail them out.....

[2020hindsight] 26/8/2015 13:33

The China market has been big over the past couple of years. SG always love to claim that stamps as an alternative investment are disconnected from other types of investment. It will be interesting to see how / whether the Chinese market will be affected. Will there be a flight from shares into stamps and other alternatives - or will people be wanting to get their money out of the market full stop ?

[pavey ark] 26/8/2015 12:38

Careful now, they also "plugged it" from c.200p in 2012 and it rose to a peak of c.380p.
The main thrust of the IC is that things are happening with the company and they like what they see.
The recent (18 months) changes, purchases and change to the reporting year make comparisons difficult but there are always at least two sides to any story and even more when it comes to investing.
The most important consideration here is that it looks like short term negatives have pulled the price down to a point that these are in the price with upside in the recent developments in for free (??)

[graham1ty] 26/8/2015 11:20

Peavey, IC has been plugging SGI since the price was almost 400p......ST frequently supports things all the way down......Chinese companies....

[pavey ark] 26/8/2015 10:56

Thanks Graham, had a quick look but it seems that I don't have the time I thought.
Certainly a different view from IC but my only concern about this guy is that he is rather strident but I certainly wouldn't dismiss his views on that basis.
More reading when I have time.

[graham1ty] 26/8/2015 10:39

Paved, read the two articles. I am not dividing £8.8m into £55m. £55m is the book cost of the stamps, and STs argument is that grossed up that stock is worth £100-125m ( and that is about right with their gross margin, ie mark up). I was dividing £23m, annual sales, into £125m. If you use the annualised 2H number you could argue the run rate is closer to £17-18m, which would mean many more years stock.

Read the articles as I have concerns about many more things......

[jeanesy2] 26/8/2015 10:25

I am afraid the shareprice says it all here!

[pavey ark] 26/8/2015 10:05

Graham1TY,I usually make a small investment in companies I fancy and this is after a reasonable but not exhaustive piece of research so I am greatful for your thoughts.
Even with my fairly basic knowledge of the company I would question a couple of your points but certainly not in a dogmatic way.
Firstly, any reference to the H2 has to be qualified by pointing out that some major sales event dates slipped outside the reporting period.
These sales have now taken place and will be included in H1 of this year.
Secondly, the company is moving (has moved) from being a stamp selling company and it looks like you are taking the stamp sales for H2 and dividing this into the £55m stock to imply that it would take them 5 year to move the stock.
I understand the stock acquired is the over the whole range of collectables.
Thirdly I would not expect the web site to start immediately and it has taken the company many,many years to build its reputation and good name so it would be a great pity to rush this especially as this good name would certainly be the cornerstone of the online business.

Family matters have held me rather captive this morning and as the weather is rather dire I'll spend some time going over the results in greater detail but remembering that these recent results are rather distorted.

[graham1ty] 26/8/2015 08:03

Pavey look at the two recent pieces on Stockopedia. Simon Thomson grosses up stock levels to "what they might be sold for" and uses a figure of over £100m. ( actually grossed up at current margins would be £122m). BUT sales of stamps plummeted to £8.8m in 2H. Or just £23m for the year. That means they have FIVE years of stock. Secondly NAV is £82m but £38m of that is intangibles. So net tangible assets are just £44m, less rthan the stock levels. So there is nothing there except for stock.......and it is not much, just 90p per share. Yr third point about online trading. It is TINY so far, giving last year gross sales of £1.2m and commission revenue to SGI of about £100,000. If you look at the problems they have had since launch ( I saw they have just issued Version 12 !!!!!) then this is not going to takeoff for a while. Just a few thoughts

[bookbroker] 24/8/2015 11:06

Alt . investments getting canned this morning, but they normally bounce back, so hope for the best! Jury out on their new website!

[pavey ark] 24/8/2015 10:34

whackford,
I agree with you about the stock valuation but I brought it up only in relation to the current cash situation.
Nice to know that a certain amount of cash could be generated and one would assume that when the company said that this stock acquisition was an at a very good price (not their exact words) then there is room for some upside but even without this there is a large sum that could be realised.
I intend to hold for some time.

[whackford] 24/8/2015 10:25

Pavey - I took ST's advice and bought in at around 285p, I think it was. I am not a trader and intend holding for long term, so not unduly bothered about being under water at the mo.

However, what does surprise me, is ST's idea of "marking stock to market" (i.e. retail price) when valuing the shares. This is in my view dangerous practice and is why accountants always use "lower of cost or market value (wholesale value in this context)".

I suspect you have probably done the right thing buying at current price if you intend being a long term holder. SG needs to prove it can handle the diverse set of companies it has now become.

[pavey ark] 24/8/2015 09:40

Couldn't resist a few of these today as a three and a half year low does seem a bit OTT.
Been following these via Simon Thompson in IC, I don't take a buy recommendation as an instant path to gain and if you had acted on his previous articles I'm afraid you would be well underwater here.

What has attracted me is his comment that the brokers forecasts don't take into account their new online operation and the fact that they have stock which is very undervalued on the books.

If this market reversal continues I would imagine that the online operation could be very active if you looks on SG as an upmarket pawn broker/auction house.

If people need to raise cash quickly this could be the place for them.

The company name will mean that people will trust this operation more than other similar sites.

Although the cash pile has been used in acquisitions and setting up the online operation I would suggest that the figures given for the stock held does mean that cash could be raised if required.

Nice director dealing recently at c. 240p.

[jeanesy2] 21/8/2015 13:07

Shareprice continues downward movement. Not good for those that are still in. Resistance point?

[graham1ty] 29/7/2015 14:26

No trading statement after the AGM either. Rubbish

[graham1ty] 29/7/2015 07:32

No trading statement before the AGM ? There is another long piece on Stockopedia analysing their Annual Report.

[graham1ty] 28/7/2015 16:58

No one off to the AGM tomorrow ? So convenient in Jersey

[jeanesy2] 14/7/2015 10:25

Price continues to move down. Agm coming soon. Ihave followed these for years, but do not hold any at the moment. May buy, but looking for a more positive outlook. I am not liking what i read here and expect this to fall some more until we get better news!

[superiorshares] 05/7/2015 23:18

Well done to the greek people . The first nail for the EU coffin . The stock markets could go bandy for a while ? I think sgi will take a beating if this is the case ? I am not short Stanley, but if it drops a lot, as I think it might. I will be in, " kitchen sink an all ". The debt levels in the EU and the states are incredible ! Can only bode well for alternatives. regards

[hywel] 29/6/2015 18:29

I know i'm being lazy, i've had a skim through the results saying the contribution of Noble (and Mallett) were in line with expectations but does it give any more detail on the figures from Noble? That was a good acquisition, not so sure about Mallett.

[graham1ty] 28/6/2015 17:21

A little more reflection on the SG results with my grey coloured specs on

hxxp://boards.fool.co.uk/stanley-gibbons-sgi-13232133.aspx