Standard Chartered Share Discussion Threads

[bones] 08/5/2013 18:55

Brokers eh? 1400 - 2000+ depending on who you read.

My concern was that there were several areas in the IMS where the Q1 performance appears to be below company previous expectations, so while the company is keeping its guidance unchanged for the year as a whole, they probably have no choice as it is so early in the financial year to be certain of any definite variation to that.

The IMS just read a little too negatively for me, so I will hunt out other stocks with more certainty in their voices.

[major clanger] 08/5/2013 18:28

Broker recs for STAN:

[philo124] 08/5/2013 10:35

I think this "problem" has existed for some time.
I am still overweight (lol) .

[miata] 08/5/2013 09:32

In contrast with HSBC headcount and expense ratios increased rather than reduced and business appears to have been less buoyant.

So I am speculating that either those additional staff will, given time, grow the profits at a better rate or be sacked!

[bones] 08/5/2013 09:06

Not especially uplifting IMS from STAN today! Certainly not adding on the back of that one.

[bones] 07/5/2013 17:08

Strong day today on high volume, pumped along by a strong bank sector after HSBC and some other good European bank results. STAN update us in the morning and I don't see any obvious reasons why this would not be a bullish report after the tone of the results a couple of months back.

[bones] 07/5/2013 09:47

Seems to have done its 15% retrace and now rallying strongly. Waiting on the IMS and AGM tomorrow morning (8th May) before deciding whether to add to my position. The good HSBC results today are hopefully a guide to sentiment in the Asian sector which should benefit STAN.

[bones] 10/4/2013 14:39

15% retracements are perfectly normal in growth stocks before the next leg up. Anything more than 20% would concern me though.

[philo124] 10/4/2013 07:30

There are a lot of charts with H&S formed or in the process of being. Their are
some where they have formed and got worse. I am waiting for another bad day for
the marlets before topping up on quality, divi paying stocks.

[santar] 10/4/2013 03:43

Or is it a head and shoulders forming? I'm waiting to see which way it goes.

[bingowing] 09/4/2013 16:01

good place to jump back in here.

;-)

[daz14] 09/4/2013 15:56

Never seen any of your targets hit.....but always worth a laugh... :->

Sanks
5 Apr'13 - 18:39 - 1549 of 1550
Hope my 12.57 level 4 target is helping, before the nipple hits the fan.
Hope that helps
Sanksalot

[bones] 05/4/2013 18:58

Sanks - you need help :)

[sanks] 05/4/2013 18:39

Hope my 12.57 level 4 target is helping, before the nipple hits the fan.

Hope that helps
Sanksalot

[miata] 05/4/2013 11:46

Above £16.

[agai] 05/4/2013 11:41

Technicals at £12???

[philo124] 23/3/2013 19:12

US would close all our large businesses if they could.

[ian davenport] 20/3/2013 07:45

Sanks - whilst you are right to highlight the dangers to Europe from the Cypriot difficulties, the great differentiator of Stan Chart is that is it very little exposed to Europe - probably why most of us are on board the share

[kiwi2007] 13/3/2013 11:18

Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LSE): Last: 1,716, down 72.06 (-4.03%), High: 1,748, Low: 1,716, Volume: 1.77m
BE
Interesting downgrade out from James Chappell, Berenberg.
BE
Arguing that Stan's getting too big to keep getting bigger.
BE
Management wants double-digit growth, which it's not delivered in the last six years.
BE
("normalised EPS CAGR between 2006 and 2012 has been 7.7%")
BE
And, even when you're knee-deep in the poppy Asian economies, hitting the growth target will necessitate taking on extra risk.
Real time stream connected. New messages will appear here the moment they are published.
BE
Risk = rising provisions, more volatility of earnings and potential capital dilution.
BE
And note Stan's provisions post the crisis have been "exceptionally low".
BE

PM
(back)
BE
Now, that's a pretty small uptick in impairments.
BE
But bake it into the forecasts and you come out with a 1,450p share price target.
BE
Here's the key argument.
PM
Goodness
PM
Interesting
BE
While STAN's underlying markets are growing and the bank does not need to artificially enhance its growth as some European and US banks have done, we are
concerned that STAN has become too big to pursue double-digit growth as part of its strategy. In particular, we are concerned that this will lead to three main issues:

1. it will compromise on risk as management continues to try and hit targets;

2. earnings volatility will rise due to the additional risk taken on which will increase the costs of capital for shareholders; and

3. the group will become too complex to manage and control, further embedding the two issues above.

BE
We would prefer management to advocate a more conciliatory tone on growth while emphasising control of risk and more stable returns. In particular, as we will discuss later, we think this double-digit target consumes too much capital and is likely to lead to STAN returning to the market to boost capital ratios above peers. We struggle to understand why management continues to maintain this target, considering the CAGR for normalised EPS since 2006 has been 7.7%. We do not believe the market would punish the bank for slowing the growth rates of the business as long as it is explained in the context of more stable and higher returns. We would contrast this with HSBC, which continues to cut costs and grow the business as it looks to simplify and de-risk its business, which we believe is likely to lead to higher and more stable returns in the long run.

BE
There are a few other good points, most notably on Stan's scrip divi, but I haven't had time to get my head around those yet.
BE
Here are the bullet points.
BE
● Derivatives regulation provides headwind: We estimate 20% of STAN's revenues are exposed to derivatives regulation. If we apply our assumptions on pricing and collateral, we think that this could provide as much as a 10% headwind to group revenues as well as affect STAN's aim to double wholesale bank revenues by 2016.

BE
● Capital usage offset by scrip: A secondary concern of ours remains that RWAs continue to grow faster than profits. If the FX effects of H212, and those of the scrip, are removed, then core Tier 1 at the end of 2012 was 30bp lower at 11.4%. With Basel III affecting capital by 100bp, we forecast STAN to just be able to maintain an 11% core Tier 1 with a 40% scrip dividend. We see little room for error on capital if STAN wants to maintain a 100bp cushion above the perceived regulatory minimum of 10%.

BE
● De-rating likely to continue: Traditionally, the time to buy STAN is when it is trading on a single-digit forward P/E. However, it is now trading on 11.1x 12-month forward consensus EPS, so now is not the time. On a relative basis to the UK market, it is trading at a 3% discount compared to a 10-year average premium of 5%. Considering the headwinds/risks, we believe this de-rating will continue.

PM
Interesting
PM
It's ex divi also today
BE
Yup. Ex div by a final $0.5677
PM
or 38p
BE
Versus a 75p fall.
BE
Anyway, that's that one.

[philo124] 13/3/2013 09:16

Can't wait; lol.

[agai] 13/3/2013 09:00

Technicals calling at £13.90, £13.70, £13.10, £12.87

[philo124] 08/3/2013 18:27

Don't think so, would think it was big buys rebalanceing their Ftse holdings from time to time. I will continue to hold my 1250 shares in my SIPP for hopefully some time. My top up at 1105 has become a legend in my own lunchtime in the square mile, apparently.