St. James's Place Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 04/3/2024 10:57

The business impact of this news will be felt for a long time…

Advisor losses
Client losses
Even back office admin team losses
Management time dedicated to fire fighting rather than change….

Profit warnings/events are rarely singular.
Bravery may be rewarded with M&A, but I suspect in its absence, the share price will not stay consistently above £5 for much of the next 2 years.

[tim 3] 03/3/2024 20:27

Yes but I think they will find it harder in the future though.

Most people don't buy a telly without googling it first let alone their life savings!

Google SJP and you get pages of high fees and underperformance.

As you know net inflows halved in 2023.

[dexdringle] 03/3/2024 17:56

......and yet, despite all that, they are the UK's largest Wealth Manager. Wierd. Or genius. One or the other.

[tim 3] 03/3/2024 17:48

If I was a new customer thinking about investing with SJP the first thing I would note (amusing I could get over the charges) would be the poor performance of so many of its funds.

Surely in time this will come to bite them.

(Just google SJP fund performance and see what comes up)

[dexdringle] 03/3/2024 13:49

Fenners 66, it isn't clear from the RNS. I hope they were just topping up and didn't get to buy shed loads at under £5.

I'd prefer it if hardly anyone bought at those prices and 99% of holders were in the same underwater boat and were doing what I think, in modern parlance, is called a HODL 🤣

[dexdringle] 03/3/2024 12:02

News doesn't cause a drop. Other than temporary (for a few minutes) so the market makers don't get caught with their trousers down.

Only sales in excess of purchases will cause a true drop. Supply and demand.

[jakleeds] 03/3/2024 08:30

Dex, the drop was caused by the news. These lot are in a real mess. Talk to any SJP adviser they will be more than depressed.
They went unchallenged for years, those who got in early have made millions. The more recent (last 10 years) joiners wanted to live the same luxurious lifestyle and have been caught with their pants down. There will be suicides here by ‘advisers̵7;.

[fenners66] 02/3/2024 22:47

Have not looked at their holding - but are you saying , and are sure they have gone from 0 to 3%
or have they just crossed a notifiable threshold ?
In which case a small number could do that.

[dexdringle] 02/3/2024 22:27

Unlikely that a 3% differential between sells and buys (if the 17 million purchases hadn't happened) would have caused a 33% share drop though surely ?

[jakleeds] 02/3/2024 16:32

Dexdringle, how can we know their trades haven’t impacted the sp? Maybe it would have fallen a lot further.
These will be booted out of the ftse 100 on the 5th of June unless there’s a significant rally in the price (unlikely). They’d have gone this month but the reshuffle had already been announced before the SJP statement. Endeavour Group was booted out this time, they have a mcap of 3.1bn, compared to SJP’s current £2.81bn.

[dexdringle] 01/3/2024 15:17

Yep. It's open season since they announced the provision. The ambulance chasers smell blood and have six month to kill until the FCA rules on the car finance malarkey.

I think SJP should at the very least claw back the salary paid since 2018 to the recently departed CEO who was asleep at the wheel (and clearly didn't provide value for money given the state he's left behind).

[quepassa] 01/3/2024 12:33

hXXps://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/news/how-get-st-james-place-compensation-overcharged-fees/

and there's a whole industry/universe of firms offering compensation claim services.

Easy enough to find on a google search.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[quepassa] 01/3/2024 12:00

dex,

kitchen-sinking.....

...the one thing never to forget about kitchen sinks is that they are connected to the drains....

-re share prices - hope you read that book I recommended!

-let's hope and trust that the £426 million provision for potential client refunds is sufficient.

...I recall that the clearing banks vastly underestimated their initial provisions for ppi claims once the word got out and a tsunami of claims deluged and dogged them for years.

wishing you well in your investing.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[jakleeds] 01/3/2024 11:35

I was thinking of shorting them a few years ago at 12 quid, but they just kept going up, touching 17 quid a share!!
If they can fall from £17 to £5 a share, I can see a lot more downside yet.

[dexdringle] 01/3/2024 11:05

jakleeds, they have 160bn under management. £1 a share value the whole business at just £550 million. If true then the whole fund / wealth management business across the board is virtually valueless and is a dead industry walking. You'd better start shorting. You'll make a fortune.

[dexdringle] 01/3/2024 10:59

QP the point of pasting the Lind Invest post was not to flag a buyout but simply to point out that there is some interest from at least one serious party to buy at this price. Why would they do that if it is a basket case that's almost certain to fall further ?

Edit: and they're not buying it for the dividend and quality management....

[jakleeds] 01/3/2024 10:57

Crazy. They’ll be kicking themselves. There’s much, much worse to come here. Later this month they’re going to be expelled from the FTSE100 after the reshuffle.
All the tracker funds will have to sell.
I can see these going to a quid or less.

[dexdringle] 01/3/2024 10:54

QP, you're right, yes I did say £8.75.. Thanks for going back and checking though. It's much appreciated 🤣

That was before the disastrous dividend cut and restitution provision this week of course. The new CEO is kitchen sinking the whole piece as they do. The old CEO must be laughing all the way to the bank. His buy of shares Amy £6 was presumably done out of embarrassment at that point.

Obviously, no one is going to offer £8.75 when the prevailing price is £5. The likely buy out price needs to be adjusted according.

The fall from £12 to £8 then to £6.50 was odd. Now we know why. It would be interesting to see who was selling at £12, £11, £10. It is likely they had more 'detailed' information than everyone else....

[quepassa] 01/3/2024 10:50

really? are you serious

come on....!

a 3.2% stake.......

[quepassa] 01/3/2024 10:36

Dex,
You'll end up believing your own propaganda!

See your October post number 506 where you suggested a bid was likely at 875p.


There is in my view still no chance of any bid even now that the share price has fallen 45% in the short five months since then.

There's still plenty of dirty washing to be done.

Good Luck!

all imo. dyor.
qp

[dexdringle] 01/3/2024 10:18

If they carry on making £400M net profit per annum and paying an 18p dividend costing £100M per annum then, unless there is more restitution than the £410M provision, there will be £200M to £300M for buybacks in future years.

Each £100M buys back 20M shares at £5 a share. So potentially buying back 60M shares per annum which is over 10% of shares in issue. Each year. By end of 2027 the shares in issue will be down to 400M and, at £400M profit per annum, that's £1 per share. A PE ratio of 5.

With current Enterprise Value at £11 a share, Private Equity must be looking at this now and taking a medium term view. I wouldn't rule out a cheeky £7 a share bid.....