Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[lavalmy] 20/9/2016 15:41

One of the bigger takeaways from the AGM was that they were expecting to be dealing with several projects at once and were preparing themselves, as a worst case scenario (workload-wise), of being capable of dealing with eight. Simultaneously, the message was that it was theirs to screw up and they seemed pretty determined not to.

So the Bahrain project, being small and the sole project at the time, was ideal from a learning curve perspective, as well as a show-case for the system. Now that the project is getting awards, probably down to the input of SRT to make it work as smoothly as possible, those smiley chappies will be even happier to show off their project.

Re Indonesia, Phase 1 is probably at an end. Phase 2, which was originally simply scoping out the overall roll-out based on what they thought they wanted and where, learned from the small regional system in Phase 1, has probably now been semi-merged with some of the roll-out. 30-50% of the shore-based kit maybe. I think that most of the increase from the $50 million to $100 million was just that - RADAR, CCTV etc, and is quite easy to order and deliver (and get paid). So it is pretty much up for grabs how quickly Phase 2 gets signed off, how much gets brought forward and how much of that in turn falls into this financial year. The way I look at it, it is probably best if very little falls into this FY, leading to more eye-popping figures next year and the year after. The project is only expected to take three years, one of which will have passed by the upcoming FY end, though of course many a deadline has been missed before.

[2vdm] 20/9/2016 12:52

Thanks TP. Much appreciated and I agree about having several smaller projects on the go. Ecuador perhaps? Maybe ST will do another broadcast in October which would add confidence.

[the prophet] 20/9/2016 12:29

Hi 2vdm

Re profit in H2, hopefully. Re H1 results, they are usually out in November, but SRT usually give a trading update soon after the period end, so that could be early October.

Current forecasts call for t/o of £12m and ptp £0.7m for the year 2016/17

Given the Indonesian contract is for £70m or whatever, clearly SRT have the ability to do significantly more than £12m t/o in any one year.

Our prospects for this year (so far) depend on the rate of progress of the Indonesian contract. SRT have already accepted some £2m of 'stage 1' Indonesia in the last set of accounts. Mr Tucker was not giving anything away at the agm re current trading, so I'm not too sure what to expect, other than I guess the interim results could be pretty modest. I believe companies have to inform the market if they are significantly ahead or behind market expectations, but as we are not sure what the expectations are for the half year, who knows if this still applies?

If I have one concern it is that I don't like being dependent on one contract, we've all seen how these roll-outs can be subject to delays. Not saying that is going to happen with Indonesia, but SRT are a sub-contractor on the project and SRT just have to wait in line till called upon. I would much prefer three smaller contracts all running at the same time, to be honest. Or one big one and another couple of smaller ones would be nice! They seem a bit stubborn in coming forwards, but the vibe at the agm was good, so perhaps not too much longer to wait?

I look forwards to the trading update and seeing what the way ahead looks like.

[lazyj] 20/9/2016 11:50

New addition to Gallery. "Bahrain Coast Guard MDM project wins National Project of the Year award"

[2vdm] 20/9/2016 11:39

Now there's frightening thought visionon! She's on crutches at the moment, so I'll hide them somewhere later and get to her laptop to check!!

Yump, not a bad summation/analysis.
Hjb1 may disagree with us LTHs,which he is entitled to do, just as we have our own views for staying the course. SRT remains in my view, a compelling story and I've been an investor since 2010, so have shared the frustration with other LTHs. I suspect, looking at trade sizes over the last month or so, that a lot of people recently jumped on board thinking that this would continue to head north with news coming out regularly, which we all know is not the case. I don't know how one values the company at this stage other than to take the view that it is 1)marginally profitable 2)has a valuable contract and 3) its VSP. I'm purposefully ignoring ST, his team/distributors and SRT's product.
Unless things have changed, I suspect that we will see the profit in H2 (TP and Le Val, do you agree?)and of course it may well include some of the Indonesian project Stage 1 income by then. When are the HI results due, early October?

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 22:52

Kalk, as usual we'll just have to let the market decide what happens.

[yump] 19/9/2016 22:49

The nice thing is that odd bb posts whether pro or con, make sod all difference to the share price, so all the hidden wishes are actually a waste of time, apart from just venting opinions.

fwiw I see this investment very, very simply.

It was bottomed out at 20p, with repeated disappointments.

Now its worth just over twice as much with the Indonesian announcement, which if it comes to pass as expected, makes the share price weirdly low.

If it had had a solid revenue base over say 3 years at say £12-15mln annual turnover, at say a share price of 30p and then the Indonesian contract had been announced, I think it would have tripled in a short space of time and stayed up.

So there's a disconnect, which presumably is simply down to disbelief, as a result of 'previous'.

[kalkanite] 19/9/2016 22:36

hjb1

I don't quite understand what you are trying to achieve with your posts? Your content can be construed as a deramper who is trying to encourage holders to sell their shares so that you can buy the shares at a lower price as such you seem to throw any negative thoughts that you can come up with. Yet I don't believe that this is actually the case? or is it?

I think it quite healthy to see both sides of an argument but you are doing it constantly. You have been invested in SRT (at least I think you have) for longer than I have, is that still the case? Only your remark SP very volatile atm..MM having games, will stay clear for now. appears to contradict the fact that you are invested at all.

Are you just incredibly frustrated and feel that constantly being negative is an outlet for this?

It will be news that will drive the share price one way or the other, any movement in between is mostly sentiment.

BTW, you say "Market cap = overvalued" Could you possibly give a breakdown of how you come to this conclusion? I have done my calcs and consider the fair value of SRT to be between 55 & 60p. My calculations made many weeks ago on this thread.

[trident5] 19/9/2016 18:04

But you weren't at your desk working 2vdm.

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 18:00

some would say;

Market cap = overvalued
Indo deal..might be £70m...(conditions apply) could end up very little..( read USA + others )
VSP. finger in the air it seems .Heard it all before!
SP very volatile atm..MM having games, will stay clear for now.

[countryman5] 19/9/2016 17:41

Market cap £54 million, little debt. Indonesia contract about £70 million (Could be higher with weak pound?) and 50% margin on sales. VSP £200 million?

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 16:02

inc you eh yump!

[yump] 19/9/2016 15:59

I'm sure nobody on here trades, despite apparently being on the board all day.

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 15:13

just MM making a few quid, but it's at ever lower levels it seems!

[obiterdicta] 19/9/2016 15:05

HJB1

But it's closer to 30p than 60p now - so you are stacking the odds in your favour.

The current moves are on low volume so I am ignoring the market. Predicting short term price moves is a mugs game.

OD

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 14:41

I'll wager that it will be closer to 30p on poor update.

[obiterdicta] 19/9/2016 14:37

Don't believe anyone who says they can predict the price action.

This may go to 30p in its next move, it may go to 60p.

A poor update could see 30p or it could have a bounce as a poor update priced in.

Another contract win and it bounces back above high of 60p.

Who knows? Certainly no one on this board.

OD

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 13:31

yump/chump....don't trade mate...and already said it could go to 30p..please keep up will ya! lol.

[yump] 19/9/2016 13:15

Then you'll be able to trade it again.

Why not say 30p and have done with it.

[hjb1] 19/9/2016 12:47

I'm not expecting anything either, that's why I think the share price will go lower.

[kalkanite] 19/9/2016 12:17

To be honest I'm not expecting anything from the update for the first 6 months, but keen to hear how the Indonesian project is developing.

As mentioned many times on here, the value of SRT is all about conversion of at least some of the VSP over the next 12 months.

[kalkanite] 19/9/2016 11:53

Shhhhhhhs

I'm trying to fill a buy order at 42.5p but I think I left it too late.

EDIT: Have you just received your back of the sofa money LaV?