Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[countryman5] 19/12/2018 16:34

Small sellers, (relatively) large buyer clearing up stock.

[lavalmy] 19/12/2018 16:15

I think we are all saying pretty much the same thing, viz a few contracts leading to visible and significant revenues and earnings. Goodapple's point about the lack of enthusiasm about the Philo contract is very apposite, but with a few more of the pipeline converting I think that anxiety or whatever it is will dissipate. And not forgetting the long-awaited stampede of institutional investors trying to get a toe-hold. Whatever ructions this Brexit business will cause, SRT will be quite a rare UK business in that it 'exports' the vast majority of its products which themselves are made in the EU.

[philburt] 19/12/2018 15:52

Thanks alter ego. Hard to predict, as you say.

[philburt] 19/12/2018 15:35

Thanks YumYum :)

[yumyum] 19/12/2018 15:17

I think it needs at least 3 contracts (one can be reasonably small like £10m) to get close to £1.

I am expecting the day transceiver business to be going great guns too, so that will help defray the costs.

Once we have no debts then the company can start buying back the shares. Then we can head to £1.50 and beyond. More likely in 2020 I think.

Meantime......waiting patiently (a bit).

[philburt] 19/12/2018 15:02

Thanks guys. Of the two, I prefer LaValmy's 'prediction', but I appreciate both views! Any others?

[goodapple] 19/12/2018 14:39

I must admit I was expecting a gradual Northward tiptoe by the share price after the Philo contract was confirmed, and under the influence of a little Christmas spirit.
Alas it's been wilting slightly instead, with a steady trickle of small sells.
Hopefully another contract soon will confirm the robustness of SRT's pipeline and the market will react accordingly.
Given the recent response though, I don't think we are going to see £1 any time soon.
Thrilled by the prospect of being proved wrong though!

[lavalmy] 19/12/2018 14:35

End of March 2019 as a result of Vietnam/2 Middle East and consequent broker's upgrade to 8p EPS next year. Their share price forecast would probably have to be £1.50.

[philburt] 19/12/2018 14:18

Without wanting to jinx the whole darn share price growth trajectory, does anyone have a view of what will get us to £1 / share and, a little more difficult, by when? Just a bit of fun at this festive time of year.
Yes, before you ask, it is very slow in my office today....

[lavalmy] 19/12/2018 06:18

Well spotted YumYum. I thought there might be articles out soon about the card.

goodapple, the young lady's clothes gives it away. I lived in Saigon for a couple of years, and there is no way she is in Vietnam. Even the hair is wrong.

As to the article itself, the logistical and financial constraints shouldn't be a big surprise. Even if it were to be an all-satellite operation, getting transponders on 30,000 boats would not be easy. Deciding who is to pay for them could cause difficulties as well.

But it looks like the big boats to be fitted in April. They go out furthest and would need more satellite coverage as a result. So no urgent need for land based infrastructure to be in place beyond a hub to deal with that number - I think these hubs are scalable as well, but they could get well the real McCoy at the beginning like the Philippines. SRT would want to have ordered the long lead bits for the transponders already, though.

Next tranche by January. And so on.

I read elsewhere that in terms of over-fishing and environmental destruction it is the smaller inshore boats who are most responsible and I am sure that the government is aware of and making plans to deal with that. One thing is to reduce the number of boats, so the total number of transponders could be closer to the 80,000 mark than the 110,000 boats currently (allegedly) in existence.

Probably an inadvertent use of the phrase, but 'some of the E.C.’s recommendations may require more time to implement fully on the ground' points the way.

[yumyum] 18/12/2018 22:57

goodapple, it is Philo. I did compare the photos....so had a bit the same thought as you.

Anything else would need an RNS, so let's just wait patiently (a bit) for a new photo with ST and the Vietnamese boss.

There are more coming too.

2019 is SRT's year. Profits, debts being paid back, share price on the ascendant.

[goodapple] 18/12/2018 20:04

Doesn't say Philo....

[hjb1] 18/12/2018 19:21

yes, Philo.

[yumyum] 18/12/2018 19:16

Surely signing is Philo, not Vietnam.

[hjb1] 18/12/2018 19:00

so he reckons they will have trouble installing an 'effective monitoring system' to cover every boat..really??

[goodapple] 18/12/2018 18:58

- So, could Vietnam be the contract signing picture recently added to the gallery? and if so when would there be an RNS?

[goodapple] 18/12/2018 18:15

from same report:
Other solutions to tackle IUU are also underway, with efforts receiving extra urgency as Vietnam moves to finalize a free trade deal with the E.U.

Nguyen Tu Cuong, a representative of the Vietnam Fisheries Society, a non-governmental organization founded to support the country’s fisheries sector, said some of the E.C.’s recommendations may require more time to implement fully on the ground, due to logistical and economic reasons. Cuong said the most difficult task for Vietnam in implementing the E.C.’s recommendations may be installing an effective monitoring system that covers every fishing boat operating offshore. But an important step will take place in April 2019, when satellite-based monitoring systems will be installed for vessels of more than 24 meters in length. That system will be extended by January 2020, when monitoring systems will be installed for vessels of between 15 to 24 meters in length, according to Hung.

[yumyum] 18/12/2018 17:51

Yes, it has been a long process. 5 years ?

Question is whether Vietnam is ready to press hard money buttons or just go slowly.
Me too LaValmy. Just have fingers crossed with regards to the size and scope of the project awarded to SRT.

This comment from a report today implies Vietnam is getting serious -

''
Tony Long, the former director of WWF’s European policy office, concluded his own field trip to look to Vietnam earlier this month. He cited overcapacity in the number of vessels as one of the top issues Vietnam must tackle, saying the temptation will always be there for fishers to cut corners and bend the rules simply to eke out subsistence livelihoods. But he lauded Vietnam for its work to improve its approach to sustainable practices.

"I don’t think anyone can doubt the seriousness of the way different Vietnamese fisheries authorities are putting in place tough new licensing, tracking, and other control measures to tackle IUU fishing,” Long told SeafoodSource.
''

hxxps://www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-trade/vietnam-optimistic-about-lifting-of-european-yellow-card-as-last-inspection-nears

[lavalmy] 18/12/2018 16:16

YUMYUM, I am sure it will.

SRT have very active with the Vietnamese for quite a while now - if you remember they were trying to get UK government support from a space funding programme in September last year for this project. It fell through, but there must have been a reasonable amount of satellite data required (i.e. the offshore fleet, some of the time) and that maybe was one of the reasons they announced their own satellite programme with Clyde Space at that time. As you can see from the photo when the webcast was delayed, that level of engagement is still ongoing.

If my analysis that Vietnam are intending to install a terrestrial backbone of AIS supplemented by satellite data for the offshore vessels is correct, then I can't think of anyone else they would be dealing with. When I met with Simon in August of last year, he was full of the Vietnam project, Bluetooth, smartphone data input etc, as well as stressing the cost advantage. Vietnam will not be doing a tender, so we will not see the sort of tender document which indicated to the knowledgeable that the Philippines wanted SRT and no-one else, but I am sure that SRT's fingerprints are all over the specifications.

[yumyum] 18/12/2018 14:00

Thank you LaValmy. Fingers crossed it comes the way of SRT.

[lavalmy] 18/12/2018 12:17

This was prepared for the EU Parliament Committee in October and recently made available:



Quite a lot of waffle about the country, government etc before getting into the fish.

This paragraph struck me as relevant to us:

'The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) says16 that Vietnam has about 110,000 fishing vessels, of which there are about 33,000 offshore fishing vessels (capacity of 90 CV or more), but only about 3,000 vessels are equipped with Movimar satellite positioning equipment. Vietnam’s Fisheries Law 2017 which takes effect from 1 January 2019 requires all fishing vessels that measure 15m or more in length to be equipped with satellite positioning equipment. There is a serious gap to be filled in vessel positioning.'

We are waiting for a Decree on Implementing the Fisheries Law, which the EU and others have seen in draft but I can't get hold of. Therein should be guidance as to what the roadmap is to achieving this. As per the Prime Minister's Decision they should 'continue upgrading the vessel monitoring system at sea and develop a compulsory road map for installation of route monitoring devices for all offshore fishing vessels' in the period ending 2020 - these are the 30,000 vessels not already covered by CLS's system.

What gives it all away concerning what type of VMS they are planning is the next phase, from 2021-2025 when they will 'continue to upgrade the vessel monitoring system at sea and expand the installation of route monitoring equipment with the objective of 100% of inshore and offshore fishing vessels to be monitored' The EU document helpfully defines inshore as rivers, lagoons and 4-5 nautical miles out to sea. There are possibly 50-80 thousand of these other vessels and it would be insane to try and monitor these with anything other than a terrestrial system, to wit AIS.

The same argument applies to what the Philippines are doing. If they wanted to monitor say 1,000 extra boats, it would probably not make much sense to install 117 base stations etc. More likely to be sensible just to increase the numbers on the CLS system. At 5,000 boats it may be moot between the two. All the boats, then AIS every time a winner, as the majority will be inshore.

The house broker didn't mention possible expansion of the system beyond 5,000 boats, though SRT did in the RNS.

The Vietnamese Decree on Implementation would normally be expected to be published before the law takes effect on 1 January.

[lavalmy] 14/12/2018 15:47

I think they are only beginning to take it seriously and it is very difficult for them to know what to do to manage the fisheries so as to provide an adequate livelihood for the small fishermen and supplies of fish for the population. There are no quick fixes and yet time is running out.

One fix that stands out is to eliminate destructive fishing in their EEZ's and the only way to do that is to know who is there and what they are doing and then stop them. But there are obstacles to that in the form of corrupt officials, competing ministries and all the rest.

Security is more of an issue in the Middle East, despite the South China Sea disputes.

[yumyum] 14/12/2018 15:11

Well yes. They have to take it very seriously. This is not only jobs but, more importantly, food. Number one issue in security.

I think SRT might get a takeover offer next year. I hope not.

[lavalmy] 14/12/2018 14:47

YumYum

It is more that these countries are visibly taking things more seriously and co-ordinating efforts. The Philippines CONTRACT stipulates that the data set should be able to be manipulated so as to share with others the information they want to share (and no more).

I would guess that the aim is to make possible exchanges of information between these authorities upon which they can rely, to determine for example if one of their boats was indeed fishing in someone else's waters or doing something illegal. If they are all running with the same type of system, they will know that their neighbour's is also as reliable as theirs and that the data sets cannot be corrupted.