3*
Spirent Communications, the leading provider of automated test and assurance solutions for next-generation devices and networks, issued a decent Trading Update for the financial year ended 31 December 2024. Performance ticked up through the second half of the year in early signs of a market recovery. Revenue growth in the fourth quarter, and for second half of the year was 5 per cent, resulting in full year revenue at approximately $460 million...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/SPT/1153 |
Grinding slow commitment to meet regulatory requirements to get approval for bid in various countries but it looks to be on track for completion by the end of April 25 |
No sign of the "deal closing". |
I'm rolling the dice. There's 16 percent here in 6-8 weeks if the deal closes. Can't see why it wouldn't go through but could be wrong of course. |
what's going on here ? market must think think bid won't go through |
Quite a few of these form 8.3's are funds adding to long positions. Seems institutional money getting in for their 10% uplift to 202p |
Morgan Stanley up their position |
Price is now quite a bit below offer. Market must think deal won't complete due to watchdog investigation or something else... |
It's not clear from the documents. There's a long stop date in September which it has to close by, but there was a GM on the 22nd May - I assume it will close well before the September date |
When is the deal meant to close? |
Could be a quick 10% here if you had the balls |
No bidding war then. Difference to TO price around competition watchdog? |
Well, it is now 10% .. quite a strange outcome unless something is off with the deal. |
Well this seems odd.. Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with buy rating and 240p price target |
Sorry, meant to write 10p not 10%.
Purchase price with special dividend as I recall is 201.5P. It’s been more like 9P, not off by much. |
It's about 5p below.. that ain't 10% |
Stock price has traded almost 10% below acquisition price, doesn’t seem normal. Assume it’s large investors cashing out and investing elsewhere. |
Around 5p under. Pretty normal for a stock to be trading slightly under. The market is not expecting a counter offer at the moment, but that can change. I'm still expecting a higher offer to materialise. |
Any idea why the stock has been dropping well below the acquisition price? |
The article ends with analysts saying shareholders should hold out for more money.
Numis saying shareholders should not sell for less than £240 per share |
Odd article in The Times today...
The original bidder for Spirent Communications is sticking with its £1 billion offer for the British telecoms testing group because it thinks that competition regulators could step in and thwart its rival. |
 Assuming its new tech is solid, Spirent looks like a v nice addition still currently v cheap, so can imagine a bidding war with other potentials - £3 (£240!) or higher not unimaginable. Can hope/dream, anyway!
Current timing and VIAVI opportunistic, with Spirent demand/market in a good place to build/recover over next 9-18mths, assuming proposition solid. Centre of gravity has already shifted to US, and stronger commercial nous could make a massive difference.
Not sure how far VIAVI can stretch unless backers front up but Keysight much bigger and Spirent cloud/SaaS offer presumably appealing both as bolt-on and to keep away from others. Could get really interesting if likes of Cisco or other major vendor makes a play but a lot of that group currently cowed, and not sure the hotter tech, services or web players in right place yet for something like Spirent.
Not clued up on potential of US/Federal bits.
I had high hopes for Spirent (£5+) before leaderhip and macroeconomic environment tripped it up so badly, and as always feels sad that UK struggles to house/grow something so interesting. Makes wonder where it would be if on Nasdaq, including if it was more speculative 'growth' and not such a solid outfit... |
In The Times today Numis analyst says £240 a share wouid represent fair value |
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