Spire Healthcare Share Discussion Threads

[floridamassive] 08/8/2018 20:19

Plus at this ridiculously low price, another takeover bid is imminent. Wait till that comes in and you are looking at a nice 30-40% jump in a day :). This is a super buy in my book at the current share price

[bountyhunter] 08/8/2018 20:19

absolutely Florida, I agree entirely, that's why I topped up today at 172p :-)

on Mediclinic:
(24/7/2018)
“Our profitability is something that we have achieved through our management style, big investments in advanced systems and technologies that have enabled the provision of high quality and cost-efficient care to patients,” Roly Buys, Mediclinic’s chief strategy officer, tells Moneyweb.

[floridamassive] 08/8/2018 20:18

RE: share price will bounce back - way OVERSOLD.
SPI has a history of recovering ~30-35% in no time, it has happened time and time again - in APR 16, SEPT 16, OCT 17, May 18 etc. They are the second largest private healthcare provider in the country, I don’t think they are going anywhere in a hurry - 39 hospitals, 11 clinics etc etc. What you are seeing here is a classic case of market manipulation and sheepish mentality. Those who have the balls of steel and are able to ride through this storm will be rewarded handsomely. At the core of it, it’s a good business. IMO, share price will recover nicely over the coming weeks. #keepthefaith :). Numis, JP and Peel Hunt seem to agree, Screw the Germans (Berenberg), they seem to be shorting this stock.

[jonwig] 08/8/2018 18:34

@ bolador - wasn't Astra Zeneca another one? I agree it's messy and imperfect. Interesting discussion - thanks.

What puts me off Spire a bit is the thought that its property assets might not be worth so much under alternative use - but I must admit I haven't done much analysis.

[bolador] 08/8/2018 18:24

jonwig, yes I was thinking of a restriction that allowed only bids from accredited sources then I realised I was making the situation much worse ! However I have suffered in the past by not selling immediately on news of a bid.There must be an economic way of punishing directors who reject a bid and then go on to preside over situations like Spire and Hammerson for current example.

[jonwig] 08/8/2018 17:39

@ bolador - the problem is "asymmetry". The BoD are in possession of information which is commercially sensitive, and doing what you say would mean shareholders (and therefore the would-be bidder) are given the details otherwise they can't decide on the issue.

How many frivolous low-ball bids would this encourage?

[bolador] 08/8/2018 17:21

jonwig, ultimately yes they do decide but sometimes a long way down the line and possibly after a great deal of company money has been spent.My objection to the present system is wrapped up in your first sentence. Shareholders should be in on the decision to accept or not from the off. This will prevent the directors clinging on if their opinion is considered of little value. The fact that directors find themselves on the receiving end of a bid gives quite a lot away about their performance.Thanks for your comment.

[justiceforthemany] 08/8/2018 16:20

P/E is closer to 14 here actually.

[costax1654x] 08/8/2018 14:52

Company called BigDISH,Ex Just Eat Ceo,5 mil mcap,just Listed,keep an eye Cause is going big!

[jonwig] 08/8/2018 14:43

@ bolador - if a BoD "rejects" an offer, that's just a signal that the offeror has to up its offer or "go hostile". In the latter case, the gloves are off and the complex takeover rules kick in.

The BoD will then have to put an offer to a shareholder vote. Neither party will like this unless the BoD knows it has a blocking majority anyway. It doesn't happen often.

If the BoD accepts an offer, it goes to a shareholder meeting and vote. So either way, shareholders do decide.

[bountyhunter] 08/8/2018 14:07

I don't that it is likely to be given H1 2018 EBITDA ~GBP66 million and market cap at 699m unless there were some huge unmentioned exceptional items in H1; ADVFN financials cannot be relied upon as they are often way out of date; anyway it's hard to compare PEs given that Spire is one of just a few participants of this size in the UK private hospital sector

also H1 revenue was only down 1% YoY and In H1 2018, Self-Pay revenues increased 8.3%, PMI revenues increased 0.9% so although NHS revenues dipped it's not as dire as some are making out given the massive share price fall and likelyhood of another bid (albeit lower than the first time around which I agree with hindsight should have been accepted)

[buywell3] 08/8/2018 13:57

Is the advfn P/E of 41 correct ?

Just checked , I think it is

Seems like it stands somewhat high in the light of the recent NHS news in the RNS

[bolador] 08/8/2018 13:53

It seems to me that take over offers and bids should be a matter of shareholder votes. So often bids are rejected and disaster follows. Perhaps it is too much to expect directors to vote themselves out of office. This share price is now nearly half of the recent rejected bid value.You would have thought the bid too good a chance to miss, well ,you would if you had any idea how the business was going !
The board should glow with embarrassment but I doubt they will.

[technowiz] 08/8/2018 13:27

up 5p now off the low.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2018 12:30

Rich, the CEO may be required to hold a minimum amount under terms
of service,- details usually in the annual report.
In fairness if this is the case, there is usually a multi year timeframe
allowed to reach a particular level.

The senior independent director holds 9,000 shares, from memory.

[blueball] 08/8/2018 12:21

Falling like a stone.

[richtea2517] 08/8/2018 12:19

Did CEO not buy a boat load at £2.40 recently?

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2018 12:14

Management do not appear to be buying the dip,
might get an RNS later.

[rubberbullets] 08/8/2018 11:26

Freeholds worth 1.3billion

[technowiz] 08/8/2018 11:26

took a small position at 172.60p. trend is clearly down but when it turns expect a fair good bounce.

[justiceforthemany] 08/8/2018 11:09

On the positive side RSI 1 year is now down to just 12.

[floridamassive] 08/8/2018 11:08

Agreed, we are seeing a repeat of Sept 2017 here when this stock dropped ~30% over a couple weeks period only to bounce back ~35% over the following two weeks. This is a good opp to get in here.

[eastbourne1982] 08/8/2018 11:03

If MDC do make another bid it could happen at any time as they should know the business inside out, i.e. no need for long periods of due diligence, I've added more at £1.74.

Ebitda for 6 months was over 66 million against a market cap of 715 million.