Spire Healthcare Share Discussion Threads

[cantrememberthis2] 28/9/2018 20:53

Jamesy36 your point being?
Whichever way you look at it... Highclere and Norges Bank disagree...
Also Mediclinic may have messed up holding these because of the carnage off the tops.
I for one think others may be circling.
All in all, I thank shorts for my entries: GLEN, PFG, CPI, 888, CNA etc.
List goes on and on.
Others say bust and I say, ill ride out a profit.
Whiff of Mediclinic offloading their 29.9% (distressed sale) or vultures looking at these levels and boom.

As for Barclays Analysts - tut tut tut.

When brokers out target prices now tell me why they never EVER get there within 24hrs?

Whereas when they short them its pretty darn minutes/hours.

[jamesy36] 28/9/2018 20:44

Interesting this point about potential debt covenant breach...aren’t those facilities maturing in 2019 and therefore they’re probably in the process of renegotiating covenants right now. Fortuitous opportunity given the material downgrade in performance forecasts

[blueball] 28/9/2018 20:03

STAY in cash.

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 18:41

One of the most oversold stocks on the entire FTSE.
1 year RSI just 19 (!)

[cantrememberthis2] 28/9/2018 13:31

Meanwhile MDC bouncing back...

Shorts into the close- ballsy.

Game on.

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 13:00

Good point re: recent director buys. If there were serious debt/covenant concerns I doubt they would be spending hundreds of thousands topping up here.

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 12:58

They will walk this down to around 130p then magically all the brokers will turn positive as the fall has become 'overdone'! Rinse and repeat. Of course the market is highly illogical and fickle.

[cantrememberthis2] 28/9/2018 12:35

65% of stock in IIs hands... Barclays go jump

[cantrememberthis2] 28/9/2018 12:32

Well the facts of the latest set of RNSs speak for themselves.
We have NEW Institutions (Highclere are long only investors)and other Banks putting their chips in.
Spire once a Bid Target...
Never say never.
At these ultra lows... mmmmmmmmm tasty.
I have bought more.

[bountyhunter] 28/9/2018 12:28

I wonder if Barclays are working for Mediclinic given their 29.9% holding clearly acquired for a reason. Just a thought.

[cantrememberthis2] 28/9/2018 12:23

Spire Healthcare Oversold In My Opinion

Directors know more than City Analysts IMO:

9 Aug 18
Justin Ash, Chief Executive Officer 125,000 @ 159.99p
Peter Bamford, Deputy Chairman and Senior Independent Director 10,000 @160.92p
Garry Watts, Chairman 100,000 @159.996p
Non Exec Director seems to disagree with Barclays:
21 Sep 18
Adèle Anderson 9,582 @155.06p

These Institutions seem to disagree with Barclays who have their own agenda IMO.

HIGHCLERE INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS LLP 5.03% Notified 17 Sep 18
Norges Bank from 4.16% to 5.04% Notified 12 Sep 18
Norges Bank from 3.95% to 4.16% Notified 10 Aug 18

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 12:20

This was trading at 400p as recently as October 2016. Now a third of this. Think about those long term holders who were buying close to 4 pounds.

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 12:17

Mediclinic down 3.7% today
30% stake
As likelihood of another bid increases their share price will fall like last time.

Either way they will take a big hit on their 30% stake bought at 360p

[cantrememberthis2] 28/9/2018 11:41

Justice dude, seen it so many times...
Barclays... no surprise that we pierced 150p and held down all day yesterday.
Still a stonking buy imo.
MDC share price down - fair to do with SPIRE me thinks... as cradling 1/3 stock

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 11:19

Much of this selling is because of broker downgrades and Spire probably dropping out of the FTSE 250 at the next review in December. NHS revenue may be falling but self pay and PMI income is rising. Waiting lists can not keep growing for ever. May and her cronies will have to reduce these at some point.

[bountyhunter] 28/9/2018 11:11

well explained jftm, clearly you for one have done your own research

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 11:00

Also spend some time and read the H1 report. The last line of page 36 for example.

Borrowings extension
'During July 2018 the group renewed its finance facility with a bank loan that matures in July 2022'

Yes 2022.

The bulk of the debt is £499M in borrowings

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 10:48

Read my post properly.

CURRENT debt to EBITDA is 1x

Much of the debt is Non current i.e. LONG TERM and is not due for many years 2022 onwards

[eastbourne1982] 28/9/2018 10:37

justiceforthemany,

What are you talking about, debt is nowhere near 1 x ebitda.

If your research is as poor as that you shouldn't be anywhere near the equity markets.

Debt to ebitda is around x 4, if it goes much higher the covenants will break.

[fahads] 28/9/2018 10:31

Net debt is around 4x EBITDA if I am not mistaken - I recall net debt of a bit more than GBP400mn vs. EBITDA guidance of around GBP115mn I think. I would like to think the debt is not a big issue because you have freehold properties - and the debt can be secured on them. Mediclinic itself has historically had net debt to EBITDA of as high as 6x and the banks were willing to lend at very attractive rates, because the debt was backed by their freehold properties.

On the PE - I read on this thread that the PE is 13x - how do you get to that? Annualising half year earnings gets me to a PE of close to 19-20x. Which again is not bad because this would (hopefully) be the lowest point in their earnings.

The question for is if this year is as bad as it gets in terms of earnings - if it is, then SPI looks very cheap. If there is more downside to earnings, then it makes it a difficult call. Would love to read the Barclays and the Berenberg note.

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 10:27

Broker and shorter farting squad are telling us people will not get sick anymore... The board and advisers turned down a 315p bid last year because they knew they would breach banking covenants and wanted to be out of a job...

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 10:24

Eastbourne tell us more about the banking covenants then? Current debt is just 1x EBITDA. Much of the debt is due to the new hospitals in Nottingham and Manchester. It is not due until 2022.They also have £100M of unused RCF.

[eastbourne1982] 28/9/2018 09:24

Ebitda has changed though and as a result the bank covenants are going to become an issue soon, this is one of the main reasons for the share price fall, anything could happen here, you could get a bid however the share price could also go sub £1.

A possible bid is the only positive in the short term, there are many negatives.

[justiceforthemany] 28/9/2018 09:13

A Barclays banker farted this morning jumping on the bandwagon and downgrading Spire. These same bankers only 9 months were shouting a bid of 315p was not enough!!!

Balance sheet has not changed!