Spire Healthcare Share Discussion Threads

[blueball] 28/9/2018 08:33

Rotfl its in freefall this am.

[bountyhunter] 27/9/2018 21:28

Yes ROTFL re the wonky accountant, couldn't have put the true picture better myself cm!

[cantrememberthis2] 27/9/2018 21:16

PMSL, pseudo accountants running the rule.

FACTS
Multi Year Lows
Apathetic sector at the moment
WINTER season coming up
Ageing population
More people working = more private healthcare
Spire fills a gap in the market
MDC own nearly 1/3 of the shares
PRIOR bid
Unloved
Shorted IMO

Game on. I am in at these levels regardless.

Value/Risk Judgement Call.

Whiff of US bid or Predators and Boom - Goodbye shorts and a swift return above 200p

ALL IMO DYOR

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 19:31

Yes even the vaguest rumour of a bid and shorts will be toast. Spire is the largest private healthcare provider in the UK by revenue.

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 19:30

nhb did your 'friend' not tell you that even if all intangibles and goodwill are given a value of zero (highly unlikely) the share is now trading close to that figure. The NAV is above 250p. Property, plant and equipment alone is worth over £1Bn yet the current market cap is below £600M now. 3 of the hospitals are brand new and several have just been refurbished.

[bountyhunter] 27/9/2018 19:09

lots of shorters here likely to get burnt when they all start running for the door at once given the high likelihood of a bid at these levels

[jonwig] 27/9/2018 18:56

@ nhb - I wouldn't argue against that assessment. About the properties, when I looked a while ago, there seemed to be covenants stipulating that they must be used as healthcare facilities (I forget the details). So alternative use would mean an escape charge and writing down their values. I think it was the last annual report.

[blueball] 27/9/2018 18:38

stay in cash.

[nhb001] 27/9/2018 17:40

I asked an accountancy friend of mine to run the rule over the SPI balance sheet. The following is his summary. I would be interested in any feedback - positive or negative.

The accounts look a little worrying. They had some exceptional items that they try and brush under the carpet. A consultant who had criminal charges brought against him and they have settled claims of £28m that they are trying to get back from their insurers. They hint at a potential future upside but I don't buy it. Also they discontinued some activities leading to a write off of £10m of fixed assets which begs the question are their other fixed assets valued too highly on the balance sheet? They say they are worth just over a billion pounds but could the true figure be a lot lower? They also have intangible assets of over £500m which is made up of over paying for acquisitions or Goodwill as it is known in the trade. Bottom line profit for the year was £16.8m and they paid dividends of £15.2m which I don't like. Their cash balance fell from £68m to £39m and their quick ratio deteriorated from1.53 to 1.14. Anything below 1 is not good and they are very close to that.

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 16:10

Spire has historically traded at 20x earnings. It is now on a P/E of just 13. That is low for healthcare and such a defensive sector.

[jonwig] 27/9/2018 15:03

It's worth pointing out that Mediclinic has issues of its own, and its share price doesn't look too happy. Bidding for anyone might not be top of its priority list.

[I assume this is the London-listed SA company with ticker MDC.)

[cantrememberthis2] 27/9/2018 15:01

Been trading this... Back in... Oversold on Berenberg downgrade me thinks...
MDC and others will be watching IMO

[eaaxs06] 27/9/2018 14:53

I thought we were going to get a bounce off the 148.6 low from Tuesday, but no such luck.

It's now searching for a new low. Not good.

[blueball] 27/9/2018 14:48

About 100p I say.

[p winky] 27/9/2018 14:28

Where's the bottom gonna be here...

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 12:12

10:39 - 27/09
Buy
676274
151.00p
£1,021,173.74

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 12:09

Spire's share price is now trading at the tangible assets value alone - if you take out all intangibles and goodwill. Crazy. Why would Mediclinic have offered 315p if Spire was truly only worth 150p? Healthcare is one of the few true defensives and will only grow with the ageing population.

[bountyhunter] 27/9/2018 11:47

or they could have to pay more given how far we have dropped already

[eaaxs06] 27/9/2018 11:36

Let's hope Mediclinic are reading this thread and take the hint. Although if they wait a bit longer, they could get well them even cheaper, given the way the share price is moving.

[bountyhunter] 27/9/2018 11:32

absolutely jfm, now SPI would be an absolute bargain for them, the increasingly elderly population's need for private healthcare is going up significantly YoY and will continue to do so for many years to come

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 11:04

Mediclinic are down 50% on their 30% stake. Time to bid is now.

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 11:02

After lots of due diligence Mediclinic offered 315p per share only last November for this. Balance sheet no different. Book price = 250p.