Spirax Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 10/8/2020 09:25

Interims wednesday.

[adrunkenmarcus] 25/7/2020 13:59

philanderer, I am awaiting first half results with interest - consensus forecast is actually for the full year dividend to increase 3.5% in 2020, followed by 9% in 2021 and 7.7% in 2022. That sort of growth is probably far better than 95%+ of businesses. Maybe they'll hold the interim, due November 2020, and increase the final, due in May 2021.

[philanderer] 20/7/2020 22:54

My best performer by a mile this year.

[adrunkenmarcus] 20/7/2020 20:11

I think much of that is very true, but SPX was being overlooked when it was £72, £60, £32...etc. You'd think a business with its illustrious record would be more familiar to investors in general. By the way, the free cash flow yield is 2.3 percent on 2020 estimates. Not cheap by any means, but then quality assets are being bid up to higher prices...

[mach100] 20/7/2020 19:44

I think ADM that investors tend to avoid triple digit SP's as they seem expensive. The dividend yield too although not too bad and safe is not enough to buy one share. I personally like to put dividends back in. My own investments here were between £73 and £89 per share while picking up a divi and I may sell 25% at £110 in order to buy back at £100. I would welcome a share split though. I abandoned a plan to sell some at £105 two days ago as the momentum looked strong and I have been right so far.

[adrunkenmarcus] 17/7/2020 20:13

Why is Spirax Sarco Engineering relatively low profile? Even now it's in the FTSE 100, many PIs don't seem to have heard of it. Yet its performance is very strong over the long term.

[adrunkenmarcus] 17/7/2020 20:12

As I pondered recently, I wonder if we'll soon see a 10-for-1 or similar share split with the price above £100 a share - they did that in the 1990s when it was near triple digits. SPX's dividend is forecast to rise this year: Bring it on!

[mach100] 17/7/2020 07:37

Well the holy grail of £105.40 may well arrive today. It has been performing well of late share price wise and the £100+ price tag probably keeps small PI's mostly out so relative illiquidity means these will move up and down in jumps and falls. £105 may be a trigger for sellers and that is what I am watching out for.

[philanderer] 09/7/2020 09:02

9th july Jefferies underperform tp 8220p up from 7535p

[philanderer] 23/6/2020 09:05

RBC RAISES SPIRAX-SARCO PRICE TARGET TO 8000 (7000) PENCE - 'UNDERPERFORM'

[philanderer] 11/6/2020 08:55

10th june Peel Hunt hold tp 10000p up from 8500p

[adrunkenmarcus] 28/5/2020 21:14

SPX is expensive - but then I thought that in 2015 when I bought it and it was c. x23 earnings! Then again, there's nothing to say it can't get more expensive. Maybe it will grow into its valuation over time. Within the next eighteen months, I'm expecting my dividends received to reach about one-fifth of my book cost and I fully expect it to 'pay back' my capital in dividends over time - I'll then let it run and run...

[mach100] 28/5/2020 20:42

I hope you will have sobered up by the time you see 10 times the number of SPX shares in your PF Marcus! I suppose a share split might make the swings less pronounced as SPX has been between £89, £81 and £73 during my purchases. £100 was imo always going to be a psychological selling trigger point for some investors. I am hanging on for £105 myself as at least the dividend is retained and covered. SPX actually held above £100 at the close but might fall under tomorrow as the Dow faded into the close and US v China tensions may be to the fore over the weekend. But I like SPX and its niche market so may sell 50% only at £105 or £10.50 in a share split.

[adrunkenmarcus] 28/5/2020 20:04

We may not see £100 again for a while - not necessarily because it's got ahead of itself in valuation, but because they may do a share split. I think they split back in the 1990s when it was trading in the £90s - not that this means they'll do so again, but it's possible. They could do a 10-for-1 share split and we'd have a neat £10 share price.

[kirkie001] 28/5/2020 14:52

Well - there's £100 - albeit briefly!

Whilst I'm happy that I still hold 50% of my original investment here and that the price is going great guns, I'm finding it a little hard to justify on fundamental grounds, and think it's got ahead of itself.

Still - as the saying goes, now that I've sold 50% at more than 100% profit, I'm playing with house money....

[adrunkenmarcus] 27/5/2020 19:52

£100 wouldn't surprise me and, I think, Berenberg had a £105.40 target price on SPX before the current crisis all kicked off.

[mach100] 23/5/2020 15:00

I think we will ghave £100+ shortly. Quite a few sell on the news investors are out. The divi is safe. No Covid 19 skeletons likely and has put the right measures in place to emerge quickly from the crisis when a semblance of normality comes. SPX just needs to break out of the 8900p range to 9500p which it has been rather in than out of most recently.

[adrunkenmarcus] 23/5/2020 12:05

ntv,

I don't think they did. I think the issue is that, for every £1 they lose in revenue, they expect to lose 45p from profits, because they can take other actions on the cost front.

For what it's worth, earnings per share forecasts are showing down 8.5% for 2020, up 11.6% for 2021 and up 6.4% for 2022. They have also maintained the dividend and it's forecast to grow very slightly for 2020. Even for 2020, that covers the dividend comfortably.

At yesterday's prices, SPX had more than trebled for me since 2015 and that ignores dividends, which have compounded c. 12% pa since purchase and included a special.

[ntv] 21/5/2020 13:11

SAW
Why is this going up when they said profits were going to fall 45%?

[philanderer] 14/5/2020 09:36

Risks outweigh rewards at Spirax, says Shore Capital


The risks for engineering group Spirax-Sarco (SPX) are greater than the market perceives, according to Shore Capital.

Analyst Tom Fraine retained his ‘sell’ recommendation on the shares, which rose 4.5% to £96.74 yesterday.

He said the group’s main problem was its inability to visit customers’ sites but it has also suffered from disappointing trading updates from its industrial peers.

‘We think the risks the company faces may be greater than the market perceives as only around half of its revenue is driven by defensive markets and although 50% of Spirax’s revenue is driven by small £1,000-£2,000 tasks, its growth is still dependent on increased industrial production,’ he said.

‘We believe the risks associated with Spirax materially outweigh the potential rewards.’

[kirkie001] 13/5/2020 14:26

It's very well written!
I unloaded half just below £96 - will reinvest them if the price dips below about £88, although i'm simultaneously looking for other places to invest - 5% yield, low debt and decent capital growth opportunities, please!

[philanderer] 13/5/2020 13:23

That's one hell of a good update :-)

[kirkie001] 13/5/2020 09:23

Am I wrong to think that hitting an all-time high on the strength of today's trading update is a little racy??

Can't quite bring myself to sell, though, as I've held for so long....

[philanderer] 28/4/2020 13:49

28th april HSBC 'hold' .........tp 8110p up from 7770p