Sphere Medical Share Discussion Threads

[ladyfarmer] 03/4/2016 13:06

Thanks again Timbo

[del44] 03/4/2016 12:25

Huge thanks Tim...as always...
Will post over on LSE.....as per your permission as usual...
Thanks again....

[timbo003] 03/4/2016 12:22

>>>>>LF

The only time I have ever heard Wolfgang or any of the other directors mention Pylorus was at last years AGM (in June), see link to my notes from the meeting.

[ladyfarmer] 03/4/2016 09:55

Timbo

Echoing thanks indeed. Very thorough and helpful. Does anything ever get said about the Propofol monitor? I was of the view that this could have significant potential - but I quite understand and agree that they must focus everything on Proxima first.

[cumnor] 03/4/2016 08:05

Timbo, many thanks for your detailed summary and analysis of the meeting and of Sphere's prospects and competition. Agree re funding. Were this Abbott's baby I have no doubt it would be a huge success-they have the funds to make it as the product seems to work well. Sphere need to think two years ahead and anticipate hiccups but if they succeed then the rewards should be big.

[cumnor] 02/4/2016 21:19

The NHS is not the target market-perhaps a good testing ground as likely to be taken up more quickly if it gets the nod from a few prestigious teaching hospitals. In my experience companies like this with potentially blockbuster devices are often better off going it with a major US medical device company who could fund the inevitably higher than expected costs getting it to market if as I think it will. It needs to get as much proof as possible it works, is reliable, accurate and cost effective-to increase product awareness among cc consultants-even if they can't get the funds to buy it at present. If it plans to go it alone it needs imo to secure more funding sources in anticipation of delays or slow uptake but it will eventually fly imo.

[del44] 02/4/2016 20:48

Back in 2011 when the company came to market....the talk was never of really breaking into the NHS, local market. It was understood even back then that the UK market is very slow to change practices and introduce new technologies. It was always regarded that the Mainland Europe would be the first movers and only then would the UK market show interest. It is usually the way...

Clearly the biggest market will be the USA & Japan.....but I expect it to be long gone by then.....as an independent company... ;-)

[mach100] 01/4/2016 22:56

Thanks for your replies Del and CC. I personally wouldn't invest but am watching its performance. I just don't feel it all adds up. I am not sure about other countries but have the impression the NHS is a basket case. I do have shares in Tristel and though they have an amazing product their last update showed they were struggling to make headway in the UK. Now the general election is over in the UK at least who has power will be clear until 2020 unless the Brexit causes internal division in the Tories. But the Tories are hardly the party of the NHS. Therefore I don't think the pathways outlined by Del will come to pass. The sales of P3 have been low right? Revenue in the last accounts was £15000 so sales of P4 have to far outstrip this to be successful. Sphere is an interesting share and I am sure Woodford knows what he is doing but I am quite happy to sit on the sidelines for this one. I also enjoy the bull points here and look forward to Timbo's report. I really like Timbo's questions as these presentations as he sure does know the technical stuff!

[cumnor] 01/4/2016 22:52

This is one for a small long term bet-if it gets recognition (and if the measurement accuracy of the few blood parameters are accurate-and I think I read they have been checked against lab readings and are accurate) then it will take off. It is a brilliant cost saving, potentially life saving device. It needs major publicity in the (peer reviewed and general medical journals) so emphasis should be on getting this and proving it is accurate (and cost effective-a major advantage) and less on non medical sales teams. ICU consultants will grab this if they read about it, hear at meetings and see some proof (ce mark helps) it works. This needs to be promoted as a 'must have', not should have. The 4 is a major advance (incl ph) on the 3 but not sure about the 4 plus which seems to have only the lactate as an extra. imo.

[buywell2] 01/4/2016 20:54

The problem is trying to sell into the NHS

or

Similar in other countries

Many other device makers also suffering with the same problem eg LID and DEMG

thing is

The problem won't go away .... in fact ... it is getting worse due to the cash strapped/bankrupt over staffed/poorly managed/inadequately serviced ( by outside approved suppliers) National Health Services

Hence the population gets ever sicker : more obesity , more diabetes , more cancers etc







On another track ... if any of Mr Woodford's minions read this thread .... tell him it ain't personal


Also tell him to have a butchers at this and SBS


............. Stellar Final Results today from Cyprotex ..................

Financial Highlights

-- Strong revenue growth up 34.9% to GBP15.61 million (2014: GBP11.57 million)
-- Gross margins increased to 77.3% (2014: 75.0%)

-- Operating profit of GBP1.98 million, (2014: Operating loss, excluding goodwill impairment, of GBP0.71 million)

-- Underlying EBITDA^ of GBP3.40 million (2014: GBP0.61 million)
-- Cash generated from operations of GBP3.48 million (2014: used in operations GBP1.32 million)

-- Underlying basic earnings^^ per share of 6.94 pence (2014: loss 19.67 pence)
-- Cash of GBP5.4 million as at 31 December 2015 (2014: GBP2.9 million)




------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLUS THIS Development :-
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

................ Cyprotex PLC Strategic Review ...................


Friday 1 April 2016


Strategic Review

Cyprotex PLC, AIM: CRX), the specialist preclinical contract research organisation (CRO), announces today that the Board has decided to carry out a formal strategic review of the Company's business and assets with a view to maximising value for all stakeholders. The review will consider all available options including a possible offer for the Company or a strategic partnership.

The Company today also announced its preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2015.

[cc2014] 01/4/2016 13:00

Hi Mach100. Of course P4 will cannibalise P3 - that's the whole point. It's like Ford bringing out a new Focus - after a very short period of time they won't sell the old product as the new one has lots more features for very little extra cost.

As for the sales, we all now know P3 isn't going to sell very well and that's why P4 has the added features and functionality

[mach100] 31/3/2016 22:26

I am not an investor here but know one guy who is. He mentioned it to me before the current bounce. However, I was not impressed by tonight's presentation. Some guy rightly asked why people were not falling over themselves to get the product His answer exposed a flaw in the concept. Wolfgang said that to get sales consultants and staff first had to admit there was a problem. Then negotiations could begin But consultants were reluctant to admit there was a problem. There was an interesting point about Proxama IV ( have I got the name right sorry hopeless on names) might cannibalise sales of number III. Another guy asked for numbers and the reply was that they were in some research report. Thumbs down.

[timbo003] 31/3/2016 16:45

>>>buywell, I think that is only half the answer

They need sales or a partnership, whereby there is an upfront payment element to any partnership deal, otherwise it looks like another fund raise early 2017 (see link to Equity Development Research note).

I will be asking Wolfgang about this (amongst other things) later on this evening.

[buywell3] 31/3/2016 15:53

The only thing that will get this turned around is SALES

And that ain't happening

[del44] 31/3/2016 11:17

Too far for me to go Tim......sadly!
But good luck and look forward (as always) to any report you post...
Cheers...

[timbo003] 31/3/2016 09:45

Wolfgang is on tonight at the Shares Magazine Investor event


I will swot up on the last published research note (see link below) before I go along and prepare a few pertinent questions. Anyone else planning to attend?

They usually do a video recording of these events (including Q&As), so I will enquire if they intend to do one this time

Equity Development Research Note:

[buywell3] 28/3/2016 18:14

To keep averaging down is not thought to be a good idea

[cc2014] 28/3/2016 16:57

Good stuff Buywell. Imho FTSE is consolidating here but where next seems a little open to question.


Just to note Woodford does not have to stop buying at 29.99%. If he wishes to continue he will have to declare he's not going to make a bid for the company.

He has done this previously in WEIF. He has 35% of Reneuron.

[del44] 26/3/2016 21:01

Picked up a hat full down in the low single figures as well Tim...
As always, would be grateful for any insights you may gleam from that presentation...
Cheers Tim....

[timbo003] 26/3/2016 18:34

thanks CC

I'm feeling fairly relaxed about this one too and glad I managed to pick up a few down at six point something which has helped the average, but still well under water overall.

Wolfgang is presenting at the Share Mag Investor meeting on the 31st so I will go along to that and see what useful information I can extract.

[cc2014] 25/3/2016 17:07

I thought I'd share a few thoughts. For the first time in months I'm relaxed about my trade on Sphere and looking forward to the future.

A bit of background from me. I made quite a bit of money in late 2014 and early 2015 and decided to take on more risk around April/May 2014 on the basis I could afford to lose a bit. I always viewed this share as either being a 10+ bagger or going bust.

So, where are we. I was drawn to the share by Woodford's first purchase in WPCT did my research and established that I believed the market existed and the product worked. So, a year later and what have I discovered...

It appears Rencken inherited a company that didn't understand how to make product that sells. P3 was brought to market too early without sufficient product testing in a hospital environment. Rencken was pretty clear early on about the likely sales of P3 but I didn’t realise just how poor they would be. We have one sale in the UK with £4k sales in the year which is probably give away the unit and sell the consumables (which is fine – doing this with the first 10 units would be a good thing) and in 2016 we have a sale in Germany. I suspect that sale is more about Michael Quintel who is on the board producing a research paper on Proxima in due course. He seems driven by improving clinical outcomes and has written many papers according to my google research..

So, Rencken has assembled around him a team of clinical experts who are developing and improving the product. It’s about clinicians selling to clinicians and it’s a very clever strategy.

Next we will have CE approval probably before the half year and then it’s crunch time. Will P4 sell? I don’t know but it seems Woodford does. He’s not investing like this unless he believes and he’s up to 28% now. I have the feeling it too many to a little rushed to market but Rencken had no choice – he couldn’t delay any longer. Thus P4+ which I assume is a set of enhancements which will not require CE approval to add. That won’t matter to Woodford – he’s in for the long run and a multi-bagger. The way this technology can be expanded both in vertical and horizontal markets is huge.

Let’s see what the next year brings.