Sphere Medical Share Discussion Threads

[del44] 17/8/2015 20:37

I posted before that I think LSP will be the dark horse here..... Still think so.
Not surprised the share price held ground today simply because it was been bought. We all know by this stage that the share price never goes up when been bought...:-)

[buywell3] 17/8/2015 09:59

The RNS today need not have been

The company should have done what I referred to in my last post

This has now gone backwards sales wise and the job much harder as a result

Perhaps it should be put under the hammer whist cash lasts

[cc2014] 17/8/2015 09:53

I think it's no surprise regarding the commercialisation deal with OCD and agree it is probably good news in the long term.

With regard to the MM's I don't take a screen shot every day but from what I can see FCAP have moved up, NITE have closed their spread.

I assume someone knew this news last week and dumped some stock on the MM's at say 15.0 which Peel have left to shift. Trouble is as usual we have no idea how much

[timbo003] 17/8/2015 07:56

Finncap have marked them up? (15 - 20)

[timbo003] 17/8/2015 07:55

The two brokers (Peel Hunt and Finncap) not showing their prices yet, the other three are presumably waiting for their lead.

[timbo003] 17/8/2015 07:52

Looks like the market makers cant find their down arrow keys, surely they should know where they are by now, after all they have had enough practice over the last 3 years with Sphere.

[timbo003] 17/8/2015 07:11

I think today's announcement has been anticipated by quite a few investors on ADVFN/LSE and by the market judging from the recent decline in the share price

The recent BOD appointments pointed in that direction too.

Long term this may be good news, but short term I suspect the share price will get hammered.

So what depths will Sphere sink to today? I'll go for 11p bid, 12.5p offer. Might put in a limit order to buy a few at those sort of levels.

[cc2014] 16/8/2015 19:22

I think the issue is Buywell is that we have no idea how well or not sales are going. We know how many trusts Sphere have been talking to but we have no idea how this is going and rightly so. Indeed Sphere have not even confirmed which hospital has bought the product except it is in Birmingham although it is obvious which one it is.

I would be very supportive of "giving away" the product free to the first 10 trusts who take it up for a year. Or giving away the unit and just charging for the consumables or whatever needs to be constructed to make it happen.

It is a small price to pay to ramp up the sales curve quicker

[waterloo01] 16/8/2015 18:05

CC, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Agree on 1 & 2. I agree on 3 but would suggest they are more likely to offload if they aren't interested in a deal. On 4, Woodford buying has had little effect on the SP, so far.

I fear that take up will be slow and not convincing, so at some point a deal will be needed. IMO, it might be the only way to deliver 'value' when it's integrated with a larger, embedded player (Roche, Siemens et al) where it delivers for them an extra USP. Larger players however will need to factor in getting FDA approval, which will reduce the value of any deal.

They might prove me wrong and really get some significant sales in Europe (outside NHS) in which case the investment case might look rather different.

If I were taking a punt (which this now seems) I wish I'd done so at 16p rather than 30p. I'll be happy to get my investment back from here.

[cc2014] 16/8/2015 17:52

Hi - I've been away for a couple of days but I can see some people are really hurting now with the price where it is. We've all been through it at one point or another and I'll try to offer a few grains of optimism.

We know regardless of what the price does in the short term there are four things that matter:

1) Proxima4 gets CE approval. This in my mind is a certainty given that Proxima3 already has CE and the approval process will be much quicker this time round as it is "just an upgrade"

2) Sales. The CEO has already set out that we shouldn't expect great figures for Promixa3 and that it will be Promima4 that will really make the difference. I'm not really sure about this statement but I get the impression from everything that I've read that he's the sort of CEO who likes to under-promise and over-deliver.

3) The commercialisation deal with OCD. Now, I have mixed feelings on this because whilst this is a quick route to market, by necessity you give away margin. I am wondering whether the new CEO sees it as less important than the last one and will only do a deal at a good price for Sphere. Certainly OCD didn't take up the OO, but nor have they sold any of their shares. It suggests that OCD may be indifferent to the commercialisation deal.

4) Ability to purchase shares when you want at the right price. If you are waiting for the RNS proof of the any of the above before you buy, unfortunately as demonstrated by the last RNS, Woodford (or ano) is going to clear up all the free stock before the market opens.

So, whatever you take on 2&3 what we do know is that Sphere are now actively trying to market and sell Proxima3. They've hired a sales workforce and are attending lots of conferences with the right players.

It's a long way forward from 6 months ago when they weren't spending any time and effort promoting the company and the product. It suggests to me that they now believe they have a product they can sell.

Things will pan out over the next 6-9 months. Personally having researched the product and listened to the views of others I am convinced it will sell. The only question for me is how much and how fast.

[waterloo01] 16/8/2015 11:06

CC21014, most helpful.

[cc2014] 16/8/2015 09:39

I've re-done the shareholdings after some research to try and get a grip on who's got what.

Some of the holdings below 3% may of course have increased or decreased in recent days but there's no way of finding out. Some of those below 3% require a little interpretation.

I will add my interpretation to the holdings below 3% when I have time

According to my figures only 16.6% of shares not accounted for which I would suggest is really really low for an AIM stock

[waterloo01] 14/8/2015 19:29

Some appropriate press in the right journals/magazines would help, especially if they focus on the core USP's. If it saves time, money, hospital time and potentially lives one hopes the following Woodford should be a good move.

Having said that, when I originally invested(at 30p), it was the potential of a deal with J&J (as was)that peaked my interest. One can only assume that they are have decided not to take on proxima and have been selling for sometime (and hence why didn't take part in the OO). Would explain why AN left.

Let's hope they can either do ANO deal or see some significant interest in direct sales (hence the events?). The fear is take up will be so slow that they will run out of runway. But Woodford et al will be well aware of that, so hopefully the fear is overdone and fed by Carlisle selling their stake.

That's why I remain invested, but it's testing times

[del44] 14/8/2015 19:16

Also, some decent investors attending the above conference...;-)

[del44] 14/8/2015 19:13

There is no doubt that they are now pushing the marketing end of things. Need to get the word out that this technology is now available. Talking to DRs where I work and it is clear many are unaware that this device has been shrunk to the size that Proxima is...

Many have expressed huge surprise when I have mentioned this product... Penetration does take time....we can only hope the Board can get the message out over the coming months...

[timbo003] 14/8/2015 17:54

Of little comfort on another rubbish day, but I see that Wolfgang is down to present at yet another conference on September 28th:



So that makes 4 in total for September where Sphere will have some sort of presence.


* 5TH BACCN Conference 7-8 September, London

* NVIC 2015 17-18 September, Utrecht

* AAGBI Annual ConGRESS 23-25 September, Edinburgh

* 3RD MEDTECH & DIGITAL HEALTH FORUM 28 September, Basel

[cc2014] 14/8/2015 12:09

Last week more sellers than buyers so eventually the price has to fall as MMs don't want any more stock.Suggest we will see a large delayed sell laterBuyers now paying the full 15.5 so suspect not many left at this price

[del44] 14/8/2015 10:07

Well the lower level buying price has thus far not led to any stampede to buy...:-)

[timbo003] 14/8/2015 09:21

I think the overhang is still there Del and there is a forced seller (or sellers) out there. MMs are just moving it down until they get buyers. I wonder if we will see a very large sell off and some very large volumes go through later today or early next weeks after the MMs eventually tempt a buyer to match the distressed seller.

I've seen that sort of thing happen quite a few times before, meanwhile all PIs can do is watch and wait.

[del44] 14/8/2015 08:59

I would imagine everybody is now under water on this investment.....
I think any bid is just dreaming at this point. Sales has not really made any impact on the sp, due mainly to there lack of them....If the over hang has cleared then the market price is more reflective of demand....which is quite weak.....

[timbo003] 14/8/2015 08:43

I'm not sure that Evans, Woodford et al would let it go for 18p/share (i.e. £25m), but I suspect they may settle for around 30p.

[waterloo01] 14/8/2015 08:36

timbo, yes and not that wild a thought. £25m would seal the deal given the current share price and a steal at that price for one of the bigger players (Roche/Siemens et al).