Sphere Medical Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 22/7/2015 12:55

wnts and plhc have been on bid for the last 3 weeks or so
wnts and shoc on the offer at 19 since shoc moved from 18 to 19 on the day Woodford 2m was announced

The move of shoc from 18 to now 20.5 suggests to me they are now out of the way and wnts are now just making a market based on the spread (which is wide enough for them to make plenty)

I would venture based on L2 this stock is close to moving up. I'd like to see 100k of buys to test this out. Unfortunately it won't be me as I have my eye on something else.

[del44] 22/7/2015 10:31

How many are usually on the bid...I thought 2???

[timbo003] 22/7/2015 09:31

Thanks for the heads up on L2 CC

Yes, its changed

Every picture is worth a thousand words.....

[cc2014] 22/7/2015 09:10

L2 has completely changed from yesterday. 4 MMs on the bid only Wnts on the offer.Suspect we will see a delayed buy trade later

[waterloo01] 22/7/2015 08:54

Not much interest so far. Hope they do a global deal.

[waterloo01] 22/7/2015 08:00

Will they (Ortho) or won't they, that is the question. It was this deal that attracted me in the first place (given they took a goodly number of shares as part of it, unless they have been the recent sellers?).

[del44] 22/7/2015 07:44

Sphere Medical Holding plc



Data Package Milestone Completion for Proxima 4



Cambridge, UK, 22 July 2015: Sphere Medical Holding plc (AIM: SPHR.L), ("Sphere Medical" or the "Company") a leading provider of innovative monitoring and diagnostic devices for the critical care setting, has announced that the Company has completed the Data Package Milestone for Proxima 4, an important prerequisite for submitting the technical files and design dossiers for CE-marking as well as fulfilling its obligations to submit the Data Package to Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Inc. ("OCD") under the collaboration agreement between OCD and Sphere Medical (the "Collaboration Agreement").



The Data Package has recently been completed by Sphere and submitted to OCD within the originally anticipated time frame set out in the Collaboration Agreement. Sphere will continue with the finalisation of the submission process for the CE-marking, whilst OCD will now decide on whether it elects to exercise its option to enter into negotiations with Sphere Medical with regard to exclusive commercialisation rights of Proxima 4.



Commenting on the completion of the Data Package, Dr. Wolfgang Rencken, Chief Executive Officer of Sphere Medical, said: "The completion of the Data Package represents an important milestone in the development of Proxima 4 as well as a further step in the commercialisation of the Proxima system."

[timbo003] 22/7/2015 07:16

I would have thought that this morning's news would lead to updated research notes from both Peel Hunt and FinnCap.

I will drop MH a line this morning to see if he can provide any information on this, but I am not particularly optimistic that I will get much useful info

[del44] 21/7/2015 20:34

The ICU that I work in has 19 beds...but at any one time...I would say perhaps around 2/3 patients would need the close monitoring of gases provided by SPHR's Proxima.....severely sick patients mostly would benefit from this device....

[cc2014] 21/7/2015 19:53

So, I thought I’d summarise this company and what’s it about as it took me a long while to understand this company

The product is a blood gas analyser which allows frequent blood measurement with results at the patient bedside without loss of blood to the patient. Very useful on critical care units and for babies. For critically ill patients up to 19 blood samples can be taken in 24 hours so that’s a lot of saved blood, saved timed and improved patient outcomes
A short 2 minute video explaining it all here:


A really good summary of the overall situation of the company from the AGM presentation is here:


It tells us the worldwide market is greater than $0.2billion (page 6)
First sales achieved in UK (page 3)
Europe sales drive in progress (page 9)
Rest of world to be sold through a commercial deal under negotiation (page 5)
£15.4m cash as at March 2015 with a £5.3m cash burn per year (page 19) so basically 3 years if it doesn't sell anything so not going bust any time soon

So, what else do we know:
In open offer placing directors bought shed loads of shares – see post 459 - thanks Del

Pricing information as follows – mixture of posts 338 and 446 – thanks Tim
Monitor price – approx. £3k. Consumables £200 for 72 days. Margin 70%. Customers seem to be leaning towards a “reagent rental” model where the monitor is paid for in a slightly increased consumable price. Basically as far a clinician is concerned finance don’t need to approve a £210 consumable but do for £5k of capital.

So let’s say it’s used in 10 ICU beds one ward in one hospital gives us margin of 10*(200*.7)*2*52 = £140k per year. Based on a cash burn of £5.3m means need to sell to 38 hospitals to break even allowing for some empty beds and only half patients on the ward using Proxima.

Now the conjecture part
Last comment relates to Neil Woodford and his fund which bought 16.3% of the company in the placing/open offer in April 2015. About 10 days ago he bought another 2.1%. I have to believe he wouldn’t be investing more without having made the odd phone call first as he has no way of selling this amount of shares in the short term. Basically he’s betting on a long term success so he can crystallise his holding in a number of years time when the market cap is suitable.

Crudely speaking he can’t sell unless the company is a success so it’s a binary bet for him.

[cc2014] 19/7/2015 19:58

I'm wondering whether it's LGEN that's selling out. As far as I can tell they didn't take up any shares in the placing/open offer which is never a good sign and were already reducing before the open offer.

As of 16th March they had 3.15m shares so if 2.27m went to Woodford this about fits with 3.0m in my post 602

All conjecture but I'm hoping the overhang is done. Just need a few more buys to find out.

[cc2014] 16/7/2015 08:48

CFO appointed. Appears to have a heavyweight background

[timbo003] 15/7/2015 09:27

Del/CC

I don't know the answer to that, it could have been 2m shares changing hands, it could have been 4m, I suspect the former is the most likely.

Anyway, it seems that Hargreave-Hale are not the seller, I found this in their recently published (June 29th 2015) Hargreaves-Hale AIM VCT2 annual report (year ending 28th Feb 2015)




Post Year End Update:

Deal flow has been strong since year end and 8 additional Qualifying Investments have been made in Eagle Eye, Electrical Geodesics, Synety Group, Satellite Solutions, Imaginatik, Sphere Medical Holdings, CentralNic Group and DP Poland. We believe there is a strong pipeline of Qualifying Investment opportunities.

[del44] 14/7/2015 17:21

It would be unusual to say the least CC2014...
Trades of the "O" type are the agreed price between buyer and seller in the one price, in this case 17p.

It is why the LSE never posts buy or sell next to any bargain....just the price, as clearly every buy is also a sell and visesaversa...its only the price that matters...

Both of the 2 million trades were separated by a few seconds, indicating two trades. Just my opinion......anybody else got a view?

[cc2014] 14/7/2015 14:05

IMHO the other 2m is the seller.

[del44] 14/7/2015 13:50

I note that the Woodford purchase only accounts for around 2.68 million shares...I wonder who bought the other 2.68 million shares?
Another RNS to follow?

[del44] 14/7/2015 13:41

But quite clear that the over hang we have spoken about in previous post is still there... So doesn't look like the share price is going north for some time.....

The MMs are happy to up the offer but very tellingly, leave the bid alone...again.
This implies to me that there is more then enough stock to meet retail demand at this level....

So how much is still keeping the market from equilibrium?

[rapiddave] 14/7/2015 12:26

Fantastic news!

[cc2014] 14/7/2015 10:55

Absolutely delighted gone to Woodford.

[del44] 14/7/2015 09:03

There is your RNS cc...:-)
Woodford buying again....

[del44] 12/7/2015 12:11

There were 2 X 2 million trades that went through!

[cc2014] 11/7/2015 22:05

So as at 30 April 67.49% held by holders over 3%
Directors hold 1.01%
Not in public hands 8.1%

That adds up to 76.6%

2m sell (1.41%) hasn't triggered an RNS so holders over 3% still holding. It must have come from holders under 3%

And likewise whoever bought them is likely to be a new investor as hasn't triggered a RNS on the purchase


So, who actually had 2m shares to sell. Hard to work out seems to leave Peel Hunt or Hargreave Hale and I don't think it's Peel as I suspect they've been dripping them into the market prior to the AGM

[timbo003] 10/7/2015 10:13

Chris Evans and Neil Woodford splashing the cash again, they are becoming inseparable!

I think this is the third fund raising Evans has participated in for Reneuron. hope he only has to do the one at Sphere!

[cc2014] 09/7/2015 18:50

Really disappointed to see no RNS today.

For the record these are the trades that have gone through in lumps at 17p. I have assumed that they are reported twice.

08/07 2,000,000
08/07 265,868
03/07 381,563
24/06 350,000
Total 2,997,431

We could do with a few more buys to test if the overhang has gone.

I suspect lots of PI's may be enjoying the 2 day rise on FTSE and expecting it to go higher. We should see some rotation out of the large cap stocks into this once FTSE goes somewhat higher

[cc2014] 08/7/2015 22:48

I think we will know soon enough tomorrow.

The most important question is who bought the shares.