Speedy Hire Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 30/1/2024 12:42

In fairness, the shares are kind of back to where they spent a large part of November. The difficulty here isn't working out that the market is fragile, but whether it is already priced in (when trading at sub tangible book). It seems the FD thinks so - hence the sizeable purchase at 34p recently.

[american idiot] 30/1/2024 12:33

rumbers222 Nov '23 - 09:28 - 5661 of 5693

"Results for the first half to 30 September showed profit before tax fell 57.6% to £5.6 million but the construction market backdrop was said to be “challenging but manageable”.
That's a real shocker. Evans is deluded if he insists he can still meet full-year expectations.

................

Good call Rumbers.

It was pretty obvious after reading the above (and knowing that the construction industry has continued to struggle since Speedys H1) that Speedy would struggle to meet FY expectations...and here we are today.

Smithie6,

Speedy wouldn't sell existing assets, they would probably adjust cap-ex lower for a year or two..Makes sense I guess :-)

[wigwammer] 30/1/2024 12:22

FD bought a nice fat wedge of shares at 34p in November

[wigwammer] 30/1/2024 12:20

Trades at 0.88x tangible book, but generated around £30m of fcf last year

[wigwammer] 30/1/2024 12:15

Total assets currently £200m. Replacement value of that £200m now materially higher post inflation. They turn about 10% of that equipment a year. Good news if you have an installed base like Speedy - not good if your intention was to build an inventory of equipment to compete - it's gonna cost a lot more.

[smithie6] 30/1/2024 11:50

So
Are we looking at an adjusted PAT of £5-10million & a debt of ~£110m.

Cost of debt, ~£5m-7 ?

(H1 results. Diabolical. Sales down. Wage inflation. Vehicle cost inflation. Rent inflation.
Debt costs up.
(& Co. reports that won't achieve it's profit forecast)

But sales down !
That is fundamentally a bad mix).

At a top level these numbers look like a train wreck !
If an acceptable debt level is £50m then phps 5-7 years with no divi to pay down the debt to an acceptable level ?

Anyone able to post some good points for these shares ?

Any risks for bank covenants & divi payment??

[smithie6] 30/1/2024 11:40

Posts about selling assets to reduce the high debt level.

I don't think you understand the hire sector. (Used hire equipt gets low prices, & even lower if the end mkts are weak & demand is weak).

[smithie6] 30/1/2024 11:37

So, fall in profit....high debt...

Do we think the high divi will be cut ?

(Get the feeling that it's a bunch of Muppets running this company.
So busy putting spin on news about being green to hide the fact that they can't run the company & get performance up...
...& that not long ago they 'lost' £20million of kit !

[babbler] 30/1/2024 10:50

net debt increased to £117.3m as at 31 December 2023 which marks the normal seasonal high point.Debt increased due to aquisition cost.

[999rp] 30/1/2024 10:34

couldnt agree more with American Idiot thread, the construction industry is on the up and after sorting out the inventory issues last year, Speedy seems to have got their act together. Selling the assets woudl definatley cover the shortfall the interestign feature will be the tie up with B&Q and others in the like, either way the divident was paid last week so happy with the return and any upside on the share price..

[spooky] 30/1/2024 10:31

Holding a cyclical stock for the dividend is likely to end in tears. Dividend not a factor for me but a cut is obviously a possibility.

[brucie5] 30/1/2024 10:23

Spooky, you may be right since this hasn't gone lower than the low; in other words, the low could be in. In the meantime i would be watching the dividend.

[spooky] 30/1/2024 10:14

Not sure about that. IMO the building cycle is likely to turn as we go through the year. Pre election spending boost and falling interest rates should lead to an improving picture. The company will end the year in a significantly better position than it has entered it, once again IMO. I have started buying this morning but timing on these things is always tricky.

[tiswas] 30/1/2024 09:47

Big f/c eps cuts by broker, -34% for 24 and -17% for 25. DPS f/c down to 1.7p for 24.

Need someone to buy it!

[simmsc] 30/1/2024 09:35

Net debt can be reduced by asset salesOrganic growth rate concealed by sale of international in 2021

[spooky] 30/1/2024 09:32

There was never any chance that they would make this years forecast IMO. So today's announcement is hardly a surprise.

[american idiot] 30/1/2024 09:32

Todays drop on a poor trade update gives me an excellent opportunity to buy back in after selling recently at higher levels.

Todays profit warning is more a reflection of short-term woes within the construction / house building industry rather than anything specific to Speedyhire.

As interest rates fall back, growth will once again take hold and Speedy will benefit accordingly...

In the meantime I will continue to take the current 8/9% divi yields on offer here..

Its still a buy...(Bit uncomfortable with current debt levels tho!)

[wigwammer] 30/1/2024 09:17

The thing that interests me about SDY is that presumably - post inflation - the market value of their asset base is materially higher than what is reported. And related to that - it would now cost any potential competition materially more to build up a challenge. Good long term bet, IMO

[brucie5] 30/1/2024 08:12

Profit below expectations, but beneath that, decent progress and a good dividend? We await some further analysis.

[tiswas] 30/1/2024 07:39

Does anyone have Liberum's latest numbers?

[brucie5] 25/1/2024 09:20

I notice SDY just promoted from 89-90 stockrank on Stocko. Small steps; but the chart is now quite peachy with solid bottom just under the 30 level. In the meantime a div of >7%.

[tenapen] 19/1/2024 13:13

A prompt payment of the dividend - that's what I like.

:-)

[tenapen] 11/1/2024 15:24

With thanks to haggismchaggiss on the AFC threat for posting.


haggismchaggis10 Jan '24 - 23:43 - 1357 of 1358
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