Spdr $wrld Hlth Discussion Threads

[pezza4] 23/8/2010 21:37

fishing for any info people - I have had a few calls from 360invest about wheat and Ukraine farming land talking about 15-30% returns per year - has anybody else had any dealings with them or know about them??

[energyandnrg] 18/8/2003 01:58

Mike,

Do you honestly think the whole world revolves around you?

You are not the only person to have ideas and things to exchange with other people on BBs, I hope you do appreciate this.

You are not the only person trading or investing, nor the only poster on ADVFN.

Now can we be getting on with discussing Wheat, sorry I had no idea you set up a corn thread, I do not really read all your stuff, sorry should I is it any good or relevant to the agricultural situation post Mars, Solar and Lunar convergence to earth creating a global drought since July 2003?

Did you set up your corn thread after this drought occurred?

Do yourself a favour, stick on your own threads and stop worrying about other people's threads, we all have a right to talk about trading equities or commodities on Financial BBs like ADVFN, most people contribute and discuss ideas on other people's threads as opposed to looking for adulation and BB worship.

Not sure about you, but I am here to learn from well informed people via exchange of information and make a profit from trading.

Thank you

Ashley James

[geologic] 18/8/2003 01:47

Recommended on the CORN thread,
before it TURN higher.\
Another Un-original idea from AJ

[energyandnrg] 18/8/2003 01:30

Contract Specifications:W,CBOT Trading Unit: 5,000 bu
Tick Size: 1/4 cent/bu ($12.50/contract)
Initial Margin: $878 Maint Margin: $650
Contract Months: Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec,
Last Trading Day: The business day prior to the 15th calendar day of the contract month.
Trading Hours: 9:30 a.m. - 1:15 p.m. Chicago time, Mon-Fri.
Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon on the last trading day.
Overnight session hours are from 8:30 p.m. - 6:00 a.m. Chicago time, Sun-Fri


Analysis
Fri 8/15/03

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Given that we closed at a 45 bar new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is greatly increased. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (28.00) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (7.71) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (169.09) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (169.09) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Adding bullish pressure the market just reached a 45 bar new high.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. Further, a rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current uptrend to continue.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here, adding bullish pressure.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 77.42). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 77.42), but given the 45 bar new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. And, the market just put in a 45 bar new high here. Look for more new highs.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP.The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs. However, be careful to avoid buying in an overbought market. RSI or MACD may be helpful here.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 98.84); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 92.79); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation.

COMPANY NEWS:
Tuesday, 06th August, 2002

Cotton up 5.8% in July


DROUGHT lifts prices
Westpac-NFF commodity index + analysis



COTTON prices rose 5.8 % in July, contributing to a 1% rise in the Westpac-NFF commodity index.

Drought conditions in Australia forced up the price of crops and wool but cut beef prices significantly.

While the index fell in US dollar terms, a fall in the Australian dollar of 3.7 % ensured that the index rose in Australian dollar terms.

National Farmers Federation chief executive Anna Cronin said dry conditions were affecting many Australian farmers. The production of most commodities is forecast to decline sharply -- ABARE forecasts wheat production to be almost 30% lower this financial year and other commentators are even more pessimistic.

During July, wheat prices rose by 8.7 %, cotton by 5.8 %, sugar by 10.3 % (all in US dollar terms), canola by 11.1 % (in Canadian dollar terms) and wool rose by 3.3%. Beef was the only commodity where price was driven lower by the drought, falling by 12.4 % over July.

Ms Cronin said the increase in crop prices was a natural and expected response to the drought, which might limit losses, but many growers were unable to take advantage of high prices.

As expected, drought was also driving cattle markets lower as costs from water, feed and agistment forced producers to sell cattle into weaker markets.

Westpac economist Justin Smirk said the lack of rainfall overseas (including the US, Canada and India) drove up prices in July.

"Price rises have provided a buffer to producers and the recent weakness in the Australian dollar has helped. However, once global conditions stabilise a strengthening Australian dollar may limit this price support," he said.

The Westpac-NFF Index is weighted according to the value of Australian agricultural exports and includes only rural commodities -- unlike other price indices that are overshadowed by oil, mineral and energy prices. It provides daily movements based on prices of Australia's six key farm exports -- wheat, beef, wool, cotton, sugar and canola -- in both $US and $A.

The latest Westpac NFF Rural Commodity Index is available from today at

A$ down:

The Australian dollar fell by 3.7% over the month.

Westpac has estimated that deepening drought conditions could cut as much as 0.8% from GDP. Dry conditions in Australia and other cropping countries have seen wheat and canola prices rise over the month.

ABARE has revised its forecasts for crop production down significantly, with wheat production in 2002-03 forecast to be almost 30% lower than in 2001-02 (at 17.1m tonnes) and canola almost 20% lower (at 1.3m tonnes).

Forecasts of overseas crop production have also been cut, including forecasts for Canadian canola, Indian cotton (partly offset by increased US production) and US wheat.

Canola prices hit record levels during July reaching $485 a tonne. The Australian Wheat Board has increased its estimated pool returns for Australian premium white by $20 per tonne over the month. However, many growers have been unable to lock in these good prices as drought makes production levels very uncertain.

Government assistance is reducing the impact, but some producers have sold down to core breeding stock and market quality is reportedly limited.

Dry conditions in the US have also driven prices down in that market.