Southern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[waywardlad] 09/9/2007 18:22

hmmmmmmmmm

[the_equaliser] 09/9/2007 18:09

Post re-admission

Pershing Keen Nominees Limited: 50,118,584 ordinary shares (20.42%)
SVS Nominees Limited: 23,685,830 ordinary shares (9.65%)
Jon Peter Pither: 12,409,334 ordinary shares (5.06%)
Chase Nominees Limited: 10,112,235 ordinary shares (4.12%)
S&F Nominees (Isle of Man) Limited: 4,050,000 ordinary shares (1.65%)
Ellis Stockbrokers: 33,350,000 ordinary shares (13.59%)
M. D. Barnard & Co Limited: 25,000,000 ordinary shares (10.18%)
SVS Securities plc: 8,591,245 ordinary shares (3.50%)

[kenatbabken] 08/9/2007 13:10

"It's all coming together nicely imo. :O)"

Agree there LS, with a bit more volume and or news this could start to motor

[liarspoker] 07/9/2007 22:48

It's all coming together nicely imo. :O)

[liarspoker] 07/9/2007 22:47

' "Due to significant institutional demand the amount raised was over 70 pct
higher than originally sought," Southern Bear's chairman Jon Pither stated. He
added that the previous acquisitions have been fully integrated into the group
and are performing in line with its expectations.
Tarvail Ltd performed particularly well and surpassed expectations, while
Towerinput (Manufacturing) Ltd achieved record sales orders in August, only four
months after its acquisition.
Towerinput is also in the process of negotiating an exclusive distribution
contract with Hyundai Welding Company for Ireland and favourable credit terms
based on its level of sales, the group added.'

[the_equaliser] 07/9/2007 13:14

Bit of interest maybe being shown

[waywardlad] 07/9/2007 11:20

hmmmmmmmmm

[the_equaliser] 07/9/2007 09:07

Chrs LS,

I can wait till next xmas then,

[liarspoker] 07/9/2007 08:19

Indeed Spangle - also interesting to note that the placing was done at 4p no doubt due to the fact that BGC will add value. It would be bullish for the chart if we close above 3.75p imo as hopefully 3.75p will act as a floor then.

[spangle93] 07/9/2007 08:14

This sounds very promising, particularly as the price of 4p is above that at which the share price has remained for much of the year.

Due to significant institutional demand the amount raised was over seventy per cent higher than originally sought.

[liarspoker] 07/9/2007 08:06

Acquisition completed:

[liarspoker] 07/9/2007 08:02

Opening nicely this AM. I have a feeling that the real valuation won't be too far away Equaliser but I am unfortunately fairly certain that we won't 10 bag before X-mas. :O(

[the_equaliser] 06/9/2007 16:39

Now are we looking at a 10 fold by xmas

[liarspoker] 06/9/2007 16:14

EGM statement out and a small tick up. I thought we were in for another period of flatlining. :O)

[liarspoker] 30/8/2007 12:44

Yes Ken, that is true. I also used Diluted EPS so if you were to use Basic EPS you'd boost the target even more. :O)

[kenatbabken] 23/8/2007 20:26

Catching up after Hols,LS don,t you mean .54p,taking your figures and applying
the same PER as CFT gives a share price of 9p so still cheap at this price.

I could,nt find where it said they,d lost two contracts and I wonder why they
paid that extra tax which distorts the figures in the the results.

[liarspoker] 22/8/2007 19:34

Year end is in March so not long to wait imo.

[the_equaliser] 22/8/2007 18:52

So its not gonna 10 fold by eoy 2007

o wel neva mind

[liarspoker] 22/8/2007 10:13

OK here is a very rough calculation which we can all flesh out. :O)

PAT:

Tarvail Ltd:

9 months to 29 Nov 06 = Stg 535,120
12 months to 31 March 06 = Stg 574,693

Annualise the 9 months for Stg 713,493

Now the guess: how much should we deduct for the contracts which are ending ?

For now let's leave 2008 PAT the same as 2006 PAT


Tarvail Design:

3 months March 2007 = Stg 31,028
Full Year 2006 = Stg 52,850

Anuualise the 3 months = Stg 124,112

Which I'd be fairly happy with. However I am not sure of the effect, from Tavail Ltd on Tavail Design, of the 2 ending contracts. So let's make it an even Stg 100K to be conservative

BGC PAT seems to be growing at around 26% per annum ( a tiny bit higher actually but again let's be conservative ) giving Stg 927,000 for end 2008. The interim figures looks low but that is because BGC is H2 weighed so let's split the Stg 927K down the middle for a total of Stg 463.5K.

This gives us a grand total of:

Tarvail Ltd: 575K
Tarvail Dsn: 100K
BGC: 463K

Total: Stg 1,138,000 PAT

Amount of shares - +- 241m possibly a good bit lower due to the weighed factor so lets say 210m

Gives: 5.42p Dil EPS which gives a share price of around 6 - 8p at end FY 08.

Feel free to chop and change etc but please post how you see it as the more opinions we get the better.

[liarspoker] 22/8/2007 08:00

Looks like we are back in action. :O)

[marvelman] 14/8/2007 11:24

Thanks Rivaldo...as always an honest overview and synopsis. I was asked by my broker to subscribe to these at 4p but decided there was wasnt enough benefit in the offer price with such a wide spread. Will look to get in if I can get 3.5p.Regards.

[rivaldo] 14/8/2007 11:14

Bcf203, it's good news - the placing price is 4p as per the definitions at the bottom of the RNS:

'Placing Price' The placing price of 4 pence per Placing Share;

The not so good news - another 20m warrants to be issued. The good news - the results were excellent. The not so good news - sales are expected to be lower as two large contracts are ending. The good news - results to date this year are in line, and the latest acquisition looks to be excellent and at a good price.

I have a small holding here and will top up on more definite trading news. Braver souls will buy in now - STBR "could" be very cheap, but with all the caveats it's a bit difficult to tell! IMO anyway.

[bcf203] 14/8/2007 10:58

These results are excellent far ahead of expectations. BGC also looks a solid and profitable company which has grown significantly in last 3 years and seem to be paying a sensible amount.

Will be interesting to see what the share placing price is. I would expect 3.00 to 3.25 p but if above will be very good news.