Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[daniel levi bmd] 20/4/2017 11:24

Shocking please read!

FYI

Nostra Terra Oil & Gas. Abandon Ship. It's out of control!

Dan
x

[neo26] 20/4/2017 11:10

Geraldo, That was because of the long weekend.:-)

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/4/2017 10:58

There weren't any leaks on the gas front last week, the share price ticked down ahead of the announcement

[neo26] 20/4/2017 10:53

Within 14 days from last Monday, PW thinks they will be past all 3 horizons and all will be logged.So they must be fairly close to the first horizon. Watch out we may get some leaks especially from Egypt..

[cashandcard] 20/4/2017 10:45

bestace,


Thanks. Sometimes the actual relevance of these notes (the assumptions made within) in the heat of dynamic operational situations, needs to be understood.

Its a bit like the old saying 'potential' - reality is you either have it or you don't. In SDX's case, they either have oil or they don't. We shall find out soon.


Cash

[bestace] 20/4/2017 10:35

Prior to the Circle acquisition, Edison only showed two columns under 'recoverable reserves' - gross and net. Nice and simple.

The note issued on 27 January introduced the third column described as 'net attributable'. I still can't work out what the difference is, but in that note they also refer to attributable boe and attributable barrels, as distinct from WI boe and WI barrels. For the Circle assets, attributable and WI are showing the same figures, but it is the SDX pre-deal assets where attributable is shown as less than WI.

Make of that what you can!

The 12.5% figure is the assumed discount rate, as confirmed in previous Edison notes. It's therefore implicit in arriving at the figures listed under the NPV $/boe column, not the p/share column. In their initiation note they said "We made a detailed assessment of E&P costs of capital that implies the equity costs are well above 15% in the E&P space" and that they are using a lower discount rate for SDX because of their relatively stronger financial position. They also presented some sensitivity analysis which showed that a 2.5% change in assumed discount rate would result in a 8% change in their NAV.

[neo26] 20/4/2017 10:34

PotentialIt does appear so, someone is mopping up.They know where this is headed.Large discovery of gas found on Monday, which has derisked most of the block, they have another 3-4 structures where they can drill for more gas. $3m per well, shared between both partners, a lot of upside here.Don't forgery 75% of the block hasn't even been explored yet!!!And... Don't forget we are expected to generate $31m free cash flow after all our well commitments this year.Strong buy..

[potential] 20/4/2017 10:29

Mr 25k building his stake ....

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/4/2017 10:29

tournesol - if you refer to the current SDX pres you'll see that Meseda & NW Gemsa have different fiscal terms

[potential] 20/4/2017 10:24

Yes I agree huge buys taking place !! Someone knows something special :-)

[nasnas1] 20/4/2017 10:23

Someone is accumulating here big time

[tournesol] 20/4/2017 10:18

Captain Kirk

Thanks for that - doh!!!!!! Why did I not figure that out?

In fairness to myself a discount rate of 12.5% seems rather high? especially for a company with no debt and healthy positive cashflow.

and moreover it would not be expected to kick in at the stage of the calculations where you divide the total value by the number of shares to get value per share. It must kick in at a much earlier stage in the calculations - where the NPV/boe is calculated or possibly where the NPV of the asset is calculated. So I guess they've put it in the wrong column heading by mistake?

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/4/2017 10:15

tournesol - different assets have different fiscal terms, hence differing levels of entitlement? I'll have a look at the report

[cashandcard] 20/4/2017 10:13

All we have to go on is the quality of the seismic data and SDX's subsurface model, in PW's words;


" The 3D seismic data acquired and interpreted over the South Disouq concession has provided a very accurate view of the subsurface as the target interval has come in on prognosis. This provides us with additional encouragement for the deeper horizons where we are targeting oil"


Bring on the deeper, Abu Roash and AEB potentially-bearing oil horizons!


Cash

[tournesol] 20/4/2017 10:13

TGG

Thanks for that but what's puzzling me is that the relationship between "net wi" and "net" is different for different line items even when those line items relate to different chunks of the same asset.

Have a look at the valuation and see what you think.

T

[nasnas1] 20/4/2017 10:11

£1 here for starters no better short term opportunity on AIM currently

[deltrotter] 20/4/2017 10:08

Here you go:

[neo26] 20/4/2017 10:05

Cash Pw confident that the structure is their but hoping they find the source rock just like they did for gas.Great thing is, the deeper horizons are producing in western desert so not something new they are testing...Come on sdx, this comes in, instant £1.50Imho

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/4/2017 10:04

Haven't seen the Edison report, but re "net wi" & ""net", presumably "net" is entitlement?

[neo26] 20/4/2017 10:02

PaulieI understand where you are coming from.Back to sdx, current MKT cap undervalues South Disouq. We should be close to 200m. Busy year 2017...

[cashandcard] 20/4/2017 10:01

I'm really hoping the source rock in this area is, as SDX have modelled, generating oil. We know the Abu-Madi has successfully extended the Nile Delta gasplay into SDX's license in shallower horizons. We need the western desert oil formations to come up trumps. Then its off to the races share price wise.


Cash

[pauliewonder] 20/4/2017 09:55

Neo - not having a go at SOU. I actually think it's a good play. I was invested there but sold as momentum was lost. Looking at some point for a re-entry.

[soulsauce] 20/4/2017 09:53

Says it all del thanks.