Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[lowtrawler] 12/8/2020 14:38

Mk, that will be one of the interesting outputs from the PFS. Nick has hinted that they will be showing lower costs by adopting state of the art mining techniques.

[mknight] 12/8/2020 13:52

Lefrene . That was my way of thinking .

Anyone know whats our expected cost for extraction of GoLd is ?

Maybe this afternoons trades will give us a clue as to if there might be some news tomorrow .

[lefrene] 12/8/2020 13:02

With fiat money creation running at the current rate I doubt we will ever see $1200 gold again, and I'm sure Barrick know this, but I guess they have to set their stall out if they are on an acquisition trawl.

[mknight] 12/8/2020 12:45

Yes i saw the barrick chairman say 1200. But i would not have expected him to say 1500 or more .
He also said some of his mines are on the way out .

[lowtrawler] 12/8/2020 11:46

The IRR will tell you the discount rate at which the NPV becomes nil and so the actual expected rate of return based on all the other assumptions made. Those assumptions will include commodity prices.If you are Barrick, you replace the gold price assumption with $1200 but what is your view? Once you have adjusted for your view of prices (and any other assumptions you disagree with), you recalculate the IRR and if it is higher than your required discount rate, you invest.Using your discount rate, the NPV is the maximum potential worth to the SOLG share price but you have to scale that back for other types of investors such as royalty streaming and new equity raising.

[lowtrawler] 12/8/2020 11:16

Mk, what you should be doing is replacing the PFS view of discount rate and commodity prices with your own long term view.For discount rate, what level of annual return do you need to invest today in a mine that won't come into production for another 4 years, is based in Ecuador and has execution risk? That is the discount rate you should use. If the NPV remains positive, it is a good investment. The PEA used 8% but SOLG have already said they are going to use a lower rate in the PFS. Would you be happy with less than 8%?

[lowtrawler] 12/8/2020 10:55

The PFS does a lot more than provide a NPV. It validates the mineral resource and how it can be mined. It confirms a lot of the costs required to bring into production and the activities required to achieve that. Producing a much higher NPV will be headline grabbing but largely meaningless. There is a danger that unwary private investors will see a doubling of the NPV as a doubling of the value. In reality, only the changed mineral resource, timing of recovery and costs will be relevant. These will take time to analyse.

[pecker1] 12/8/2020 10:33

Not directly Solg related but Solaris announced a significant copper drill result from Equador on 10 August. Shows that a good result can lead to excitement.

Interesting company story which goes back to an original discovery 20 years ago (originally opposed by local community) not a huge distance from Porvenir. Their presentation has some good graphs on copper discoveries and the looming gap in production because of the decline in new discoveries.

[mknight] 12/8/2020 09:47

Lowtrawler

Thats a pretty downbeat forcast .

So we might as well ignore the PFS .

[lowtrawler] 12/8/2020 07:48

MK, as I said when gold was rising, there is only a marginal impact to SOLG from changes to the spot gold price and other commodity prices. Even with the massive fall we have seen, the impact should be no more than 1p.I expect the next RNS will be an update on Porvenir exploration. Most likely progress rather than results. That will kickstart weekly exploration updates.In about 7 weeks, we'll get the PFS. Warning, ignore improvements driven by higher commodity prices and lower discount rate.At some stage, CGP will issue their nasty little case against SOLG for consideration at the meeting. This is likely to drive the price lower. In 9 weeks, BHP come out of purdah and may kick the CGP case into touch or light the touch paper. Franco is likely to be a bargaining chip at the meeting. The meeting itself is likely to be in 3 months.

[mknight] 12/8/2020 05:58

Gold 1875

Nasty little drop which no doubt took many by surprise . Still 575 dollars above PEA prices .

Still awaiting Franco

Still waiting for drilling news .


Nothings changed .

[lowtrawler] 11/8/2020 20:46

With the extension FNV announced on the bridging loan, I still think SOLG will delay that announcement until the requisitioned meeting.

[lefrene] 11/8/2020 18:39

yuff, yes but we are rather short on pleasant surprises! It's the hols, mid September at the very earliest is my guess.

[yufff] 11/8/2020 18:30

Lef

Don’t be so sure

Solly has a way of surprising us all when we least expect it.

[lefrene] 11/8/2020 17:51

Gold has had a heck of a run and is due a correction, but with money creation running into the $ trillions I doubt it will be a long drawn out correction before it resumes heading North in fiat currency terms. Solg as ever always waiting for some wretched thing or other to happen, I guess the $100 million once it finally arrives for the DFS should give it a lift. But as it's August I doubt much will happen until the holiday season is over.

[lowtrawler] 11/8/2020 10:51

The point is that if they pay $1400 and gold falls to $1200, they will make a loss of $200. It's a similar approach in the oil industry, Shell used to base investment decisions on $29 oil even when it was several times that price.

[pecker1] 11/8/2020 10:10

Lowtrawler,

I don't think Barrick would do many deals now if they use a $1200 valuation for gold!
I've always interpreted this as Barrick saying any project they buy has to be capable of making a profit even if gold were to go down to the low gold price of $1200. In short, the mine has to make money at this POG. Given the scale of the gold, copper and silver at Alpala, this should not be a problem.

[jarega85] 11/8/2020 09:08

Same pattern each day. Price is dropped in the morning and either finishes blue or closes at a similar opening price but overall a gradual increase.

[pecker1] 11/8/2020 08:49

Barrick CEO talks copper and gold and his disciplined business approach- well worth watching:

[mknight] 10/8/2020 17:05

Good regional results should be good enough to push through the Cornerstone deal and take away the pressure on NM .
At the moment it is all about the value of Alpala that would change with a few positive regional results .

[lowtrawler] 10/8/2020 13:20

The more I think about it, the more I believe we need a second discovery. Any bidder needs to justify the premium they are paying to the pre-bid price and a 400% premium is a hard sell. They will also have doubts on whether they are buying a one trick pony which would be put to rest by a second discovery. Thus, a second discovery may be what initiates bids rather than frightening bidders away through becoming more expensive.

[lowtrawler] 10/8/2020 13:04

MK, it's still very difficult to predict short term price movements and so it will move to 30p plus according to its own schedule.I have been considering the prospects for a takeover in the last few days. In essence, with Nick and BHP owning around 1/3 of our shares, any takeout price is going to have to be acceptable to them. In my view, that would mean a third party having to bid over 100p. If BHP intend to bid, they could win support from Newcrest and some of the other institutions at a lower price but it's unlikely they would be uncontested. This means any takeover price is likely to be at the upper end of my previous 60p - 120p range. It also makes a takeover less likely than I have previously been thinking due to the low risk reward ratio that would result from paying that sort of price.We will shortly be getting regular updates on exploration activity. We all have high hopes that this will be positive but realistically it could be many months before anything major is reported. Striking a major discovery is probably our best hope for any immediate spike in the price.

[nas_daq] 10/8/2020 06:36

Mkrampy back in the case again29/30 forecast last week is now forecast again this week with no sign of him being more accurate than a broken clock........meanwhile one of his corkers from last week amongst his boasts of his children being the next tiger woods, these posts really should be in Twitter where they belong, I suspect he is very lonely and insecure.........mknight - 04 Aug 2020 - 16:40:26 - 24080 of 24158 SOLOMON GOLD: EXPLORING 100% OWNED SITES FOR 40M+ OZ AU; JV WITH NEWMONT MINING - SOLGLowtrawler.The problem is when the news comes out the price is gone .Arcadian was waiting for FN news at 19.32p , now we are at 25.60 when the news comes out he will feel safer to buy but the price will probably open up at 29/30pp when most will buy and probably drift back to 28p at the end of the dayAnd a message for Nas daq . When i sell i will send you a copy of my account which gives you the prive bought at and profit or loss . Then you can see what a pratt you really are .Just to add if i make a decent profit then i will be using some of the profit to drill another water well in Marli for a villiage i have sponsored so the people have more clean water which we all take for granted . The previous one is now 9 years old and i fear the water wont last forever .