Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[mam fach] 19/10/2018 10:33

Doubt company will be taken over outright.
That would be worst outcome for shareholders.IMHO.
Even if offer was £1 it would be too cheep.
Not that my opinion carries any weight!

[arcadian] 19/10/2018 10:20

MIRA

An average TO premium in the last two years of 46% would give us just over 60p if offered now so I agree that an early TO would be a bargain for BHP or ANO but bad for Sol. and its shareholders. We must be patient and wait for the assets to show their worth. The share price will grow in line with the assets and further down the line a decent TO price will happen as the case will be irresistible. Buyers should in their own interests,strike in the very near future but we should avoid their overtures if we can. The tensions between these two forces will be left to NM to manage.

[mikalan] 19/10/2018 10:08

Can't see why BHP would be happy to stay with a 11% stake. At some point, and when that point is I don't know, they must make a move, or someone else will. If they did buy solg outright I'm sure the expertise gathered by solg would not be lost.

[mam fach] 19/10/2018 09:56

My thoughts NM has managed to get BHP on side to thwart a hostile bid.
IF BHP have more info than us they must have thought buying @ 45p was cheap.
MRE update will take share price way beyond 45p IMHO.
What you are missing is the huge potential here.
Unfortunately this is what is holding share price back.
That doesn't make sense does it!

[mirabeau] 19/10/2018 09:55

There's some excellent discussions taking place on LSE

I believe SOLG's become BHP's Ecuadorian subsidiary - SOLG knows the terrain, the geology and the region. I also think BHP will bid for ENSA (with BHP buying CGP's 15% of ENSA) following Alpala's PEA release end of Dec and a large dividend payment is made back to SOLG shareholders. This process will be repeated

that's my take - future dividends rather than a current offer that denies SOLG the increases in future values - if SOLG accept an offer today then that denies the shareholder huge future value

[jerryspaniel] 19/10/2018 09:51

I think we/you have been spoilt with newsflow! its not normal to have this much corp activity.
BHP are permitted to hold the same as Newcrest hold atm. After that they need SOLG permission to buy more. They cant make an offer for SOLG without SOLG permission for two years unless a third party (eg Newcrest or others) make an offer, which presumably though not necessarily would be hostile.

The newsflow from here would be assays, MRE2, PEA. It may be some hostile t/o activity, but I doubt it IMHO.

[alwaysevolving] 19/10/2018 09:35

So, if I understand it correctly, the deal BHP have agreed to only permits them to take another approx 2% ish to take them up to 13% ish. However they are permitted to make an outright offer?

My concern here is if they (BHP) don’t make an offer (at least any time soon) all we are reliant on to move up the share price further is the MRE update in Q4 as there will be no more RNS releases stating that BHP have taken another large chunk at a premium to market which is effectively the only news that has got us from 20p to 40p.

What are others thoughts on this?

Also, do we know if Newcrest are under similar restrictions or are they free to increase their interest as they please? If so one would think BHP would not have agreed to their restriction as it really gives the upper hand to Newcrest unless of course BHP make a full offer and sharpish?

Maybe I’m missing something here and happy to be put right if so? Would love to hear others thoughts on this.

[mam fach] 18/10/2018 21:57

Fundraising was kept under wraps.
First holders knew was announcement.
This is how it should be.
Expect a recovery tomorrow.
Should be holding steady @ 45p.

[onedayrodders] 18/10/2018 20:48

Apparently there were 2 large sell orders today totaling around 600k waiting for 41.5p - 42p hence concrete ceiling currently

[zeusfurla] 18/10/2018 19:06

Maybe still a few options to tidy up and absence of big buying today. Maybe next week we should see a rise followed by a RNS or 2. News management has been impressive as has 3rd party engagement with big players etc. We'll see less of the presentations now - perhaps more of that debate will be in the Board room as BHP have a favoured position.

[mam fach] 18/10/2018 15:44

Spread .05p.
That's mighty narrow.
Sign price is ready to move up?

[mam fach] 18/10/2018 10:36

Speculative & High Risk?
Are they real.
It was when it was 2p.
Think it will stabilise @ 40-41 ish until next RNS.
But that@s just my opinion. FWIW

[mirabeau] 17/10/2018 22:38

Investors Chronicle update
Today 22:31
Tip Update: Buy at 40.3p

Tip style - SPECULATIVE
Risk rating - HIGH
Timescale - MEDIUM TERM

Our previous tip -We said BUY at 22.9p on 20 Feb 2018
Tip performance to date - +76%

By Alex Newman

A month on from its initial investment in SolGold (SOLG), mining giant BHP Billiton (BLT) has paid £45m for 100m shares in the Ecuador-focused copper-gold explorer, at a 30 per cent premium to the group’s 20-day volume weighted trading average.

The deal, which brings BHP’s holding to 11.2 per cent, gives the commodities giant the right to appoint a director to the explorer’s board and grants BHP anti-dilution rights for two years to ensure it has at least 10 per cent of the business. In turn, BHP has promised not to increase its holding above 247m shares (equivalent to 13.6 per cent of the business), unless it makes a full offer.

IC View

This deal essentially prevents BHP from going hostile, but it is not exempt from making a bid during the period, should it wish. The £72m it has so far committed to SolGold may be small beer to the mining giant, but it is worth noting that BHP spent just $165m (£125m) on minerals exploration last year. Another marker in the sand reaffirms our original call (22.9p, 22 Feb 2018), even at 40.4p.

Last IC View: Buy, 25p, 5 Sep 2018

end

[whites123] 17/10/2018 19:59

Nothing wrong in taking profit:

We hear that all the time, and when we evaluate those words there will essentially always be a small period in time where one could say "Well done.. It looks like you did well"

My position is: I sell when I believe I find a stock that will offer the potential gains I envisage occurring where I have my money.

Recent successes and holds include PMO and SOLG.
Sure, could have sold some of either or both and banked profit, but why?
My take is we will have up to and over a 500% increase in a year or two..
So why would I be selling any.. I dont have any other stocks on my radar which I believe offers the same potential returns..

Strong holder, and not one of those who has to be selling and buying to be doing it right.. :-)

[alwaysevolving] 17/10/2018 17:31

Goldrush,

To answer your question. No, I wouldn’t have thought personally that Newcrest were happy with their holding especially now BHP are chomping at their heals % holding wise, however I was simply going on what Newcrest had said themselves when they were questioned re their thoughts following the first BHP acquisition of the 6%. It was posted on here at the time (I don’t recall by whom) that Newcrest had responded re their JLP holding that “we’re happy with our lot”

Smoke and mirrors? Playing their cards close to their chest? Very likely.

PS. Nice uptick into the close bodes well for tomorrow?

[goldrush] 17/10/2018 16:28

jerry

Exactly taking the Options from the the Company advisor/ broker etc who is handling the Share Option Scheme, whoever wants to sell or retain free shares from sales,covering taxes etc....with them being in the money over 28p and selling at 41p still means Newcrest could pick up just less than 1% to their holding if the option holders want to retain the net shares

[jerryspaniel] 17/10/2018 15:51

The options aren't traded options, so they cant easily be sold. If you mean they can buy the shares from the owners of the options who are hedging out their options, maybe. There was a large buyer yesterday with a million share trade. I suspect that was an insto and I would expect to see more of that in short term. Once we get these options exercised, there might not be the overhang that there appears to be.

[goldrush] 17/10/2018 15:44

lefrene

Good Points.

Newcrest are not going to let their first mover advantage dissipate....they will want a top up.... and they will be pushing for 2% or 3% placing ....that’s why the Option Shares could be ideal but BHP may be after them as well !!

[lefrene] 17/10/2018 15:38

alwaysevolving, at the nub they want to make as much money as they can for as long as they can (decades) for the lowest risk and cost. Their advantage is that they already have massive financial clout, so they can make things on the ground happen when it suits them. So no great hurry on their part, just steady but certain progress. This event won't have gone unnoticed by the other big players, but it would now seem to be a game that can only be played by the very big boys. So if somebody wants to wrench it from current hands they will likely have to go very large indeed.

[goldrush] 17/10/2018 15:30

ae

Do you think Newcrest are happy with their lot ?

This is the ONLY investment they have got that is below 50%....An experiment ? (I don’t think so ) ....Also with the big mergers going on e.g. RRS and Barack Gold and what is the Newcrest response.....Cascabel etc surely would fit in nicely to their portfolio in a big way

[mam fach] 17/10/2018 15:29

Latest fund raising gives management confidence and also share price stability.
Although it is dilution its been done in a very organised way.
Shares have gone to company with genuine interest in Solg.
Less risk of takeover at the moment.

[alwaysevolving] 17/10/2018 15:24

Be great to be a fly on the wall in the boardrooms of BHP and Newcrest and find out what they are really thinking/planning re SOLG ?

With the recent activity BHPs intensions appear more defined however all quiet on the Newcrest front? What are their intentions or are they simply happy with their lot?

Would be great to have some kind of a clue to that end.

[onedb1] 17/10/2018 15:17

It's not an area gap but a breakway one . They don't have to fill at all

[goldrush] 17/10/2018 15:04

Even Newcrest must be tempted to pick up the Options and get a further 2% on their shareholding and extend their lead over BHP