Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[original fastjet] 18/4/2024 16:23

Either a bid or a placement knight.
Flip of a coin tbh.
But Solg has a history of bluffing and hoping for the best treading water.
Placement by law must be being worked on behind the scenes but a case of who blinks first...

[mknight] 18/4/2024 16:02

The price has not moved . Not up or down .

Its waiting for something its your job to find out what that is . Any sensible ideas original fastjet ?

[original fastjet] 18/4/2024 15:56

Sp flying today lads??
Knight did it right taking profit.

[mknight] 18/4/2024 15:24

Nick and BHP have history so if he had another choice i am sure he would take it .

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 15:00

MK, both of them are used to JV's, even if not with each other. Cascabel is a large enough project to satisfy 2 large players. I wouldn't rule out them coming together, particularly now NCM is part of Newmont. At least if they went down that route, they would only need to agree a price with Nick. Acting together, they would probably scare off any competing bids as well.

[mknight] 18/4/2024 14:46

I checked out if i could see any JV with each other ,.

[original fastjet] 18/4/2024 14:32

Francois,
How's the bid going??lol
If selling Solg was as easy as your lass we would all be rich...
Dam easy

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 14:29

Neither BHP nor NCM have any Board representatives as they declined and resigned respectively. If they did, they would be forced to act in the best interests of all shareholders. As it stands, they have no responsibilities to other shareholders.

It is possible they are what has prevented any incoming bids. It is not clear what they would hope to gain by blocking a bid. If they aspire to own Cascabel themselves, the share price is already cheap enough for them to make an offer. Perhaps they both wish to own Cascabel and are standing in the way of each other and don't wish to bid together?

If any of this were true, I would expect Scott to go public in shaming them and so my view is neither BHP nor NCM are blocking bids and will be happy to consider bids through the usual NDA approach. Whether bidders can reach a suitable price to satisfy Nick, BHP and NCM is then the next obstacle....

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 14:03

MK, they have to show their hand sometime. It is possible parties have attempted to go down this route and run into exactly that problem. It could be why a bid has never been made. After all, if BHP and NCM refuse to sell they could even choose to remain minority shareholders if a bidder achieved 51%. No bidder would want that. (BHP and NCM both own over 10% and under LSE rules, a bidder needs to gain 90% acceptances to force out the minority holders)

[mknight] 18/4/2024 13:37

That might not be that easy if BHP or NCM want Cascabe and they would be showing their hand .

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 13:14

MK, I doubt it. Were they to pay a premium, the market would assume a bid was incoming. Potential bidders would undoubtedly be able to build a position of around 100m shares at a lower price by buying in the market before having to disclose their holding. They could probably build up 150m shares in total at a lower price than paying a premium from SOLG.

The most likely approach from a bidder is to enter negotiations with SOLG, BHP, NCM and Nick under a non-disclosure agreement before submitting an offer which has already gained support from the 3 major shareholders and management accounting for 36% of the total share capital and slightly more of the voting share capital. If they have accrued 4/5% themselves, it will be almost a done deal.

[mknight] 18/4/2024 13:00

Low , My guess would be to buy the 154m first and then bid later .

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 12:55

MK, as long as SOLG own the 154m shares, they cannot be voted for or against a bid. Any successful bidder would own the 154m shares and simply exclude them from the price paid. I think it unlikely SOLG would be allowed to sell the shares once a bid was underway. I still don't understand why they are not classed as treasury shares.

As you say, if anyone wants to make a bid, purchasing the 154m shares could be a good start but I don't think SOLG would be allowed to sell them to a party knowing they were about to launch a bid.

Without understanding how the shares are not classified as treasury, it is impossible to be sure of the restrictions I am assuming. Those restrictions would certainly apply to treasury shares and it is why UK companies are generally not allowed to own their own shares outside of treasury.

[michaelfenton] 18/4/2024 12:25

Interesting to see todays posts and thank you guys for the explanations? I have learned something.

[mknight] 18/4/2024 12:24

Yes , if i was going to bid i would want some shares as if i was out bid then atleast i would have a profit on the shares i had purchased . So 154m would come in handy even at 17p .

I would think there are ways around the 3 percent disclosure for example if shares were purchases by a third party and of course not going over 3 percent .

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 11:55

MK, unless somebody is launching a bid at the same time, nobody is going to offer a premium for the Cornerstone shares. They will only be saleable at a discount. The Cornerstone shares remain a mystery to me. SOLG don't call them treasury shares but they have to be. They cannot be voted. It means bidders could just ignore this tranche on submitting a bid. It is all very strange.

The lack of interest from potential bidders in building a stake simply says nobody is currently preparing a bid (unless it is one of the players who already have a stake). Once they hit the 3% disclosure threshold, the price would rise accordingly.

[mknight] 18/4/2024 11:29

The next question has to be why do you think they are taking so much time in putting the finances in order .
They have 154m shares which could be offered at 15/17p
Which would give an interested party a nice start and solve the finances for a while without diluting the shares .
This would also increase the Sp .

[mknight] 18/4/2024 11:14

Thats true , maybe they think once they make a bid then another will jump in pushing the price higher . They have had time to buy cheap shares on the open market .

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 11:07

MK, the biggest mystery facing SOLG is why nobody has made an approach. I have given up trying to understand what will trigger the first bid. All I know is the longer it takes, the more diluted are shareholders.

[mknight] 18/4/2024 10:57

Well lets hope she makes her move soon ,

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 10:36

MK, she already has a major gold project near Cascabel. We know she has holidayed with Nick and family. She has always been one of the front runners to make an approach.

[lowtrawler] 18/4/2024 10:32

As I see it, the main problems for Cascabel are the scale and the IRR. In terms of scale, there are not may miners who can take on a $3bn build project without being stretched. There are many smaller scale mining projects that provide more than double the IRR of Cascabel for much less risk.

SOLG need a large miner with resources to develop Cascabel / Porvenir and still be able to pursue the other projects with higher IRR's. Gina Rinehart is one possibility as are BHP, Newmont and possibly a handful of others.