Sofia Prop Share Discussion Threads

[27howard] 14/2/2012 14:11

This was getting ramped none stop by a poster called comedy and amazon_woman
and now they are ramping other stocks.

[ihavenoclue] 14/2/2012 11:44

tomboy .. OK fair enough ... I did sell here and bought more OCH at 7p as I feel it has a better chance of a return than here now

All IMHO

[still waiting] 14/2/2012 11:07

if OCH can't get a decent priced bid then you can see why the mm's are going to hammer this now..

[tomboyb] 14/2/2012 10:47

My point clearly has been misunderstood - effectively worth more than the 1mill cap as it currently stands- I've go no intention of selling OCH at those levels -

[ihavenoclue] 14/2/2012 10:43

tomboy .. time to get real .. if someone is only prepared to stump up 10 - 15% of NAV for OCH when they have more developed assets than SPFL then NO ONE is going to stump up 50% of NAV for SPFL

[tomboyb] 14/2/2012 10:35

Yes OCH has bombed - the debt here however is 2p out of the 24p NAV - so debt is relative to NAV with the stipulation of cashflow - a question o working out how much of the 22p NAV is worth -

[cocorico2009] 14/2/2012 10:12

and the better of the 2 (OCH) has just bombed big time - lots of burnt fingers

[ryan83] 14/2/2012 10:10

coco, that was I was alluding to.

[moneyworries] 14/2/2012 08:04

A 50% dilution at 1.25p would still leave NAV of 12p and cancel 1 million euros of debt, i.e. 2/3 of debt, if no other solution is found.

[cocorico2009] 13/2/2012 16:17

false rationale
comparing apples and pears im afraid
one's fate is not dependant on the other and they are not linked in any way other than :-

3 things these companies have in common

1) Bulgaria
2) AIM listed
3) both financially in the poohkak

thats it!!!!

GLA, DYOR, NAI, & ATJ

[ryan83] 13/2/2012 16:06

IHAVE

using that rationale, what should SPFL be at now then? 2.5/3p?

[ihavenoclue] 12/2/2012 20:48

Rather than spending ages doing nursery school maths (12-2 = 10 etc) I think the share price of SPFL currently hinges on OCH.

If an offer is forthcoming it will generally apply a "market" value to assets in Bulgaria rather than the NAV value.

So if OCH gets bought out for 24p (33% of NAV) then SPFL will have a current "market" value of 8p a share. If the price is 37p a share (50% of NAV - optimistic I think but 30 - 40m has been mentioned) then SPFL will have a "market" value of 12p a share.

I have seen so many shares in the same area as the main share riding the wave of another share following a large ripple at the main share. THINK S will be no different.

bbtablet ... IF OCH accepts an offer then that makes your point mute as if someone is prepare to pay a certain amount for property in one area then that gives other properties in the same are the relative value IMHO

Regards
IHNC

[moneyworries] 11/2/2012 08:46

One possible outcome of insolvency is that a third party buys up the whole company. That would mean we wouldn't see any of the 19 million euros owed.

Administration doesn't appear to allow greater than a year to sell assets unless an extension is agreed by the creditors.

Still hoping for, rather than expecting, a quick deal/loan to avoid all of that.

[bbtablet] 10/2/2012 23:19

The key is whether the assets can be sold at any price, given the market situation there.

[moneyworries] 10/2/2012 16:30

I'd hope, however, to get 50% of book value to pay off the debt, which would only require 1/6 of the assets, then wait till we can 75% for the remaining 5/6, i.e. 75% of 5/6 x 24p = 15p. Then for 9.5 million euros of the 19 million we're contesting to give roughly another 12p per share, making 27p. That's my more optimistic target.

[moneyworries] 10/2/2012 16:22

If we need to sell x% of assets to settle debts, however, we can wait till asset values improve to sell the remaining (100 - x)%. So if we had to sell 1/3 of assets at 25% of book value to settle 2p per share of debt and we waited till we got 50% of book value to sell the rest, we'd get 2/3 of 12p for the rest = 8p. 75% for the remaining 2/3 would be 12p.

[moneyworries] 10/2/2012 16:11

Debt is fixed but we might not realise full asset value, need to consider what we might get for assets before taking off debt I think, like in post 300/299. If we got 12p for assets, only 10p after debt. If we only got 2p for assets (we'd get much more, of course) we'd be left with nothing.

[ro5enberg] 10/2/2012 16:06

Tomboyb

I agree, come what may, we will be cheap even at circa 5p.

Time to add.

[tomboyb] 10/2/2012 16:04

The BOD need to come out with a way of delivering value to shareholders - gl.

[tomboyb] 10/2/2012 15:57

I've worked out that if u take away the debt we trade at 6% NAV - now even if shareholder don't get that full value - as with others they won't but it should still be significantly higher than here-

[tomboyb] 10/2/2012 15:44

Of the 24p NAV - 2p of that in total is its debt which leaves 22p NAV

Of the 22p for shareholders - have to work out what that 22p entails or is worth o shareholders -

[tomboyb] 10/2/2012 15:38

Just missed it!!!!

[moneyworries] 10/2/2012 15:13

Yes, I'm hoping for a lot more than 25% too.

[tomboyb] 10/2/2012 14:54

That should of been 6p - and - debt = 4p -

[tomboyb] 10/2/2012 14:51

That is correct - however BOD need to inform shareholders of the status quo - if NAV is 25% of the portfollio value that is 7p per share - take away debt = 5p

That is if NAV is 25% a massive discount -