Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[cousin jack] 19/7/2020 16:12

SMDS share price since start of year is down by almost double the fall in rivals. I can't see a good reason for the difference, particularly as market indications are that product demand is not being unduly affected by Covid. Possibly the dividend cancellation has led to selling by holders who were holding as part of an income portfolio. Taking a medium term view I think it's reasonable to assume demand will not greatly change and the dividend will at some point be restored. I've been adding on recent down days but the chart indicates that there could be a decent move up soon.

[lyndon b] 15/7/2020 13:49

You could have went fishing and got 4% today

[lyndon b] 15/7/2020 11:22

Cheers Dondee....like everything timing is key. You are putting roughly £10k down and if successful gaining £100 a time.

I don't see much joy from the Monday graph, unless you bought and sold in the afternoon. In the morning it was at the 277 range and that was as high as it got all day.

[bumrush] 15/7/2020 10:37

Dondee. Sounds like a decent way to make some cash with very little risk..I assume you are not doing CFD's? Just buying and selling the shares on the same day and taking into account stamp duty and dealer charges? I assume you also set a stop loss at 2 percent too?

[dondee] 15/7/2020 08:58

I should have mentioned that on monday the price fell back after my limit was reached/tripped as if to illustrate the importance of setting a REASONABLE sell limit. Don't be greedy.

I also believe in what Mr Buffet said when he spoke the much quoted expression "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" or words to that effect.

I generally concentrate on MRW, SBRY, TSCO but in the past also TW., VOD as well as SMDS and a few others such as BIFF, MARS.

[dondee] 15/7/2020 08:49

I never buy in the first half hour, and sometimes the first hour or more.Preservation of capital is paramount.

Once bought, always set an automatic sell limit.

You can do this nowadays on HL.

On Monday the price went up in the afternoon and "tripped" my sell limit and the auto. Email came through on my phone while I was gardening at home.

The same happened yesterday while I was in the garage sorting tools out and making a new bird box.

I am never greedy and so rarely set my sell limit more than 2% above buying price otherwise the chances of your limit being met diminish accordingly. I only buy 3, 4 or five thousand shares in a share priced at the level SMDS is at just now.

On monday , I took out around £85 gain and yesterday around £56 on 4,000 and 3,000 respectively and I only ever (usually) put more than a tenth to 13th of capital into any one single trade.

Do your own calculations!




No Aiberdeen,rivers Don and Dee.

[lyndon b] 14/7/2020 20:45

Dondee....At what points did you buy/sell during the day....You must be putting a few quid in to get any sort of return?Final question...are you a Dons fan from Dundee!?

[alan@bj] 14/7/2020 18:08

Directors snouts in the trough.

[dondee] 14/7/2020 17:57

Bought and sold this share yesterday and did the same today. Both bath style in day charts. I can't do this every day of course and not always once in a week sometimes, but a great start to this week.

[fhmktg] 14/7/2020 14:57

Then there is the opportunity for 'paper bottles' for booze as featured in the press today, for wine and spirits.....Pepsi thought to be interested as well.....

[dondee] 14/7/2020 12:11

They keep churning out thousands of various sizes of cardboard boxes and other stuff that the ever increasing number of delivery vans entering my street bring all day every day, and that isn't going to change any time soon with the bricks and mortar high street retailers in their downward spiral.

[ygor705] 13/7/2020 15:43

I do not disagree with any of the previous 3 posts. SMDS looks to be a good company but my concern after the dividend cancellation is that our CEO looks to be more fitted for Whitehall than running a business. Perhaps we should give Dominic Cummings a call?

[2vdm] 13/7/2020 07:59

Agree DogW and Tom89. Happy to add on dips with a L term view

[dogwalker] 11/7/2020 18:19

I agree with ygor705 about the silly divi cut.It undermined the company by giving out a mixed message.
I like Tom89's technical take in the post above, too!

[tom89] 11/7/2020 11:50

A debacle; my goodness, what do you know? The low on 23rd March was 245. The low yesterday was 264.5 before the bounce creating a doji hammer (reversal signal that requires confirmation). The average volume before the gap down was about 5M/day. From 2nd July the average volume was about 17M/day. Aviva have increased their holding by almost 10M. I think we will see a reversal from here so I continue to hold. Producers of all sorts of goods will be forced to change their packaging to a more environmentally acceptable material and I think SMDS are well placed to satisfy this need.

[ygor705] 10/7/2020 15:08

Having looked at the results, I am very disappointed with the dismissive way that the lack of a dividend has been handled by the management and the judgement of the management in dismissing the dividend in the first place. Our Board seem to have got themselves into the mindset that equity can be conjured up at zero cost and that it is infinitely better to raise large slugs of it rather than debt. Others have commented on executive rewards/remuneration and in my view the Board should be taking a pretty hefty pay cut after this announcement. Investors have long memories and I certainly won't be forgetting this debacle any time soon.

[lyndon b] 08/7/2020 21:11

It seems the correction has already taken place and will be helped by China closing their doors to imported waste by the end of the year. More supply and less demand...happy days!https://www.letsrecycle.com/news/latest-news/waste-paper-markets-see-sharp-correction/

[scooo] 08/7/2020 19:05

The market was right to anticipate a good outcome from online activity, but greatly underestimated the knock from declining sales into a Covid ravaged industrial sector. The industrial sector was in turmoil in March and April but is now coming back and will restore further as Covid recedes. The downgrade is overdone.

[rhuvaal2] 08/7/2020 16:24

shares up today :))

[dandu69] 08/7/2020 12:31

Thanks for the posts, I`m a holder here and have no plans to sell anytime in the near future. gla.

[muzmanoz] 08/7/2020 09:46

Thanks for that Lyndon. The transcript of the investors call is available on the companys website in case people had not seen it.

[lyndon b] 08/7/2020 09:26

Reading the annual results there, their hesitation on the dividend was due to the double whammy of the paper sales price being low and probably more pertinent, the old corrugated cardboard (OCC to those in the know, not me)cost went from £20/mt in March to £70/mt in May.

You might not think that is a lot but SMDS BUYS 330,000mt OF OCC A MONTH!!! That was a £15-20m hit a month and was caused by recycling centres being closed.

If you can track OCC prices (there are some news stories available from searches, but most indexes are subscription only) then it will give a strong insight into the financial success of this company.

Thankfully the OCC price went back down to £50/mt in June, so the trend is right.

On the paper front, their US production facility will reduce their exposure to paper sales by 2/3.

The exact words of Miles Roberts on the annual call was "we can commence paying dividends, again, at any time"

Tick tock.....

[2vdm] 08/7/2020 07:59

I aagree leedslad and pkstrough. SMDS is well managed and will weather the current storm.