Smartspace Software Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 08/3/2007 09:56

With being in a massive growth section, i expect smrt, and igp to do well over the next few years. i,ve been spending lots of time, looking for the next big winners. i,ve found two companies that i think, will go up at least 1000% with-in 3 to 5 years.

When picking shares, the first thing i do...... is find a high growth business area, then i find a company which i think that will benefit most, from this section.

i,ll let you boys know, in june after the may sell-off, (which is always a great time to pick cheap stock up)....... which these companies are ?
and why i think they will rise 1000 % +.

PS HAVE SOME SPARE FUNDS READY garth, and wjjc, (YOU could well like them.) i,ll be putting in 60k into them.

[garth] 08/3/2007 09:38

WJ,

No, I had wondered what the note might hold. They look to have pulled the £3m in 2008 back by about 25% (quick glance only) but I've always said that I thought that number would soften. 1.48p in 2009 is interesting - with rail franchises, bus concessionary travel, Hitachi etc. one would have thought that there is a certain measure of visibility.

One thing I should add is that that "£3m contract" is still out there - just taking longer than either Ecebs, or the customer, thought it would.....

DYOR.

G.

[wjccghcc] 08/3/2007 09:28

Thanks garth. Not as bad as I thought they'd be.

[garth] 08/3/2007 08:31

Positive SVS note just out, 'BUY' stance retained. Numbers given for 2009 for the first time:

[e-mail]

"Advanced Smartcard has made two important announcements relating to focus and contract wins. On 14 February 2007, the Company announced that an agreement with Hitachi Ltd for the use of Advanced Smartcard's core smartcard
technology had been signed. This represents a monumental leap forward
for the Company."

"The Company is currently engaged in ongoing discussions with a major
global payment organisations interested in adding Multefile™ to its range
of smartcards."

3 year forecasts included. 2007 only reduced by a little by the looks of it..... and still represents almost 100% growth. Gross margins last year were 74%, up considerably on the lower-margin mix of the previous year.

EPS:
2006 +0.11p (Actual)
2007 +0.20p (Est)
2008 +0.74p (Est)
2009 +1.48p (Est)

I can add to the content of the note the following points for long termers who have discussed the following:

The ITSO contract, won under tender, is open ended - there is no fixed term. The contract is Eceb's. Barriers to entry are suggested to be high - in fact near impossible - for anyone else to provide. There seemed to be genuine puzzlement at the idea that anyone else might provide ISAMs.

There is no royalty element on ISAMs but the lifetime of each ISAM is 3-5 years so there should be 'repeat order' flow.

Multefile will be added to all Hitachi MULTOS cards. Customers will have the option of activating.

Hope that helps.

DYOR.

G.

[garth] 07/3/2007 22:05

spud,

I assume they are buys because I managed to get a few (unreported as yet) at the same price....

My order for 3.6p never got taken up though ;0)

G.

[spud] 07/3/2007 18:21

boadicea / garth

Who says they are buys? FWIW there is a substantial overhang in this stock.

spud

[igoe104] 07/3/2007 15:10

Have to agree with ram, the excerise price seems, low. 6p would be more in-line.
Its just to easy at 3.7p, he should have to work for it, rather than be given it on a plate.

[garth] 07/3/2007 12:02

Ditto,

Couldn't get a quote for less than 3.98p....

G.

[boadicea] 07/3/2007 12:00

I see buys appear to have gone through at 3.8p. However, I haven't found where I can get them for less than 4p so I assume these are favoured deals - institutions (a bit small for that really) or directors?

[rambutan2] 06/3/2007 22:41

have to say that was disappointed at options strike price. a black mark on the scorecard in my book.

[mistertibbs] 06/3/2007 22:27

I like the fact they are looking more to longer term contracts with global clients. Souinds good to me. Joined this 2 days ago with a small purchase.

[awilson] 05/3/2007 15:41

Possibly the Duthie appointment may explain the caution about current year's profitability as he will not come cheap. Bu it adds strength in depth to top management.

[garth] 05/3/2007 13:39

And another new partner I have only just noticed

Ian Duthie - Ecebs' Latest Partner

20 - February 2007

Advanced Smartcard Technologies plc are delighted to announce that Ian Duthie has joined forces to work with it's wholly owned subsidiary,Ecebs Limited. Ian has spent the last 15 years as a Marketing Manager for Secure Microcontrollers within the chip manufacturing sector and is globally recognized throughout the Smart Card industry.

Ian has seen the Smart Card market grow from its embryonic days in the 1970's while at Motorola when its chip design team developed the world's first ever microprocessor Smart Card on behalf of Bull-CP8. He joined the Smart Card marketing team in 1992 and has presented the silicon vendor's viewpoint on Markets, Technology and Security, in Smart Card journals and at leading international Smart Card conferences in Africa, Asia, Europe and the USA.The last few years a key focus area for him has been on contactless payment technology.

Commenting on his appointment, Ian stated "Having been involved with Ecebs as a silicon vendor since almost its beginning where our close partnership provided a blue chip client with a dual-branded EMV solution, I am delighted to be invited to join the Ecebs team. The company's successful experience in the Ticketing sector and its strong background in Financial payment systems, I see great opportunities as these two sectors converge upon contactless technology. Couple this with Ecebs' very versatile Multefile ™ platform, providing ultra-rapid application management and shorter time-to-market, I see a bright future ahead."

[garth] 05/3/2007 13:14

A couple of items in the news about uptake of smartcards in Canada as they move towards EMV. Massive market being highlighted. Interesting in light of the recent appointment at Ecebs.....

Canada 'will have 100m smart cards by 2011'

Mar 2 2007 4:20PM

An expansion in the use of smart cards is set to be seen in Canada in the coming four years, it has been claimed.

New research has found that the number of smart cards used in the country could reach 110.2 million by 2011, with payment smart cards constituting 90 per cent of this demand.

Technology Surveys International discovered that transit and security uses of the technology may also increase during this time, including the implementation of automatic fare payment systems and electronic passports.

And wireless payments - such as those enabled by the London Underground's Oyster card - may become more popular than cards which require contact.

Oyster cards use radio identification technology (RFID) to allow users of a range of London transport systems to pay in advance for discounted travel tickets.

By holding their pre-paid card in front of a reader, money is automatically discounted from the card and they are free to continue with their journey.

TUV Product Service, part of the TÜV SÜD Group of companies with 1bn Euros turnover, in excess of 9,500 employees and 500 locations worldwide, is a leading producer of Compliance and Assurance Solutions for the smart card and RFID sectors. Please contact us ([e-mail]) for further information

[garth] 01/3/2007 11:38

Spread opened wide up - could buy around 3.9 earlier, up to 4.38 again now....

G.

[garth] 28/2/2007 22:16

First Oyster/ITSO gates early next year? A separate report on the DfT website states that technical issues on Oyster/ITSO have been overcome and successful interoperability has been proven - as in the Connexions bus trial. Further pilots are to be rolled-out on outer London Rail network.

Oyster proposals stay on track
But technical issues need resolving before smartcards are used on overground trains, reports Dave Friedlos

Dave Friedlos, Computing 01 Mar 2007

Passengers on some mainline trains will be able to use their London Underground Oyster cards by early next year, following an agreement on infrastructure funding.

But discussions are continuing over the finer details of the scheme, because accepting pay-as-you-go smartcards is complex and expensive to install.

Last month London Mayor Ken Livingstone pledged £20m to fund the necessary readers, equipment and back-office systems at mainline stations.

Initial adopters will be ready early next year with the rest to follow in 2009, says Association of Train Operating Companies' London director Steve Howes.

'There is broad acceptance of pay-as-you-go ticketing and some train companies want to proceed quickly, but there are a number of technical issues we need to address,' he said.

Accepting pre-paid travelcards simply requires validation of tickets, but pay-as-you-go is more complex and needs extra equipment and higher processing power to calculate fares and manage multiple deductions from the card's balance.

There will need to be changes to the back-office systems of both the train operators and TranSys, the consortium that manages Oyster on behalf of Transport for London (TfL).

Initial transaction data will be sent from ticket barrier card readers to TranSys systems, which will establish which train company should be paid what. The information will then be sent on to the Rail Settlement Plan, which manages transactions for mainline train firms.

'TranSys systems must be able to determine how the revenue is split up and allocate it to the correct rail company,' said Howes.

The other challenge to widespread adoption is that Oyster smartcards do not comply with technical specifications set out by ITSO, the industry group campaigning for interoperable smartcard ticketing standards. So Tube ticket g ates will have to be upgraded to accept ITSO standard mainline train tickets.

'The government wants train operators to adopt the ITSO standard, so gates in London will have to be dual fitted to accept both our smartcards and Oyster,' said Howes.

The rollout of Oyster on the mainline rail networks will be a success, despite the technical difficulties, says TranSys chief executive John Stout.

'The challenges do not compare with the technical issues we overcame in rolling out Oyster in the first place,' he said.

Train companies have been slow to exploit smartcard technology because they have focused on cost rather than the long-term benefits, says Butler Group analyst Sarah Burnett.

'There are significant benefits because smartcards allow train operators to offer more complex ticketing and deliver intelligence on customers they did not have,' said Burnett.

Through Oyster, TfL gets sufficient insight into passenger journeys to allow it to determine the most popular routes, where it needs to increase capacity and how best to plan for the future, she says.

[garth] 28/2/2007 14:58

FWIW, forecast growth was around 130%.

I guess we'll have to wait for a new broker note to discover what the actual figure is likely to be.

2 trades showing - guess there must be some delayed ones to come through....

G.

[rambutan2] 28/2/2007 14:37

rather expected, and won't lose any sleep over it.

for the time being.

[wjccghcc] 28/2/2007 14:31

bonty, they're saying they won't double profit this year.

As I've discussed with garth before, apart from the bread and butter business, SMRT is a good 18 months behind IGP as they are still at the stage of discussions about incorporating their technology into other company's offerings so as to be in a position to bid for the larger projects. Give those projects (assuming they win) a 2 year rollout and you're looking at at least 3 years before significant revenues are seen from them.

Until then, it's Scotland, ITSO and (hopefully) some Hitachi revenues to support the increased costs all these project bids will entail.

[bonty] 28/2/2007 14:18

garth, I would say that the statement shows a company with damn good prospects for the not very distant future and so what if they only double the profit this year. Sadly, I think the market always seems to take the short term view,with this and indeed most shares,.....
..... and yes it is worth emphasising that the co. is alreay PROFITABLE.
B.

[garth] 28/2/2007 11:06

Rocketman,

Jam tomorrow? Yes, and there should be plenty of it. But they are PROFITABLE already - so there is already butter on the bread! Its not rocket science. ;0)

Did anyone lurking here attend the AGM?

G.