SLF Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[camo1997] 07/6/2023 07:22

Seems to have corrected now

[camo1997] 07/6/2023 07:08

Bid at 1.80, 48% spread? What?

[chucko1] 30/5/2023 08:17

Another full repayment (loan #53) on the Cs.

Equivalent to 1.53pps, implying a new NAV of 8p or so and share price of 4.7p were they to distribute. A discount of over 40% - even after the previous 3.5p distribution.

I have previously suggested that the probability of making a further 50% return on the Cs was good. It just got better.

[spectoacc] 03/5/2023 14:55

Cash received at HL.

[camo1997] 03/5/2023 07:39

😂😂

[spectoacc] 03/5/2023 07:27

Payment Friday for nominee a/c's, would have expected it lunchtime yesterday.

A cynic might suggest that when interest rates were de minimis, HL had no incentive to delay. But now they're (about to be) 4.5%, the delay from Friday to (say) tomorrow is 6 days of free money for HL. Do that on every payment on every a/c, and you've covered some of the legal fees for defending the latest Woodford action.

[gregatimb] 03/5/2023 07:23

No, me neither HL seem to be getting sloppier with their processing !

[camo1997] 03/5/2023 07:05

Anyone got the ROC yet? HL Account

[wilwak] 02/5/2023 08:24

Reddirish…. Or even less.

Ord Share looking very weak today.

An interesting punt for the brave.

[reddirish] 18/4/2023 15:18

Wilwak - and we have our answer; at 50%, the level it's been valued at all the way down.

[wilwak] 12/4/2023 10:18

Reddirish … I think it’s anyone’s guess what we’re going to receive on the Ords from here. I think after this 3.5p it could range from 0p to 10p.

I’m not sure if the two AD plants they sold at half book value are representative of the remainder. The rest could be a lot better or a lot worse!

Another 3.5p in the bank makes the remaining ride a lot easier.

I wonder how the market will value the shares once they’ve gone xdiv and have a supposed remaining 9p’ish NAV.

[chucko1] 31/3/2023 15:58

Redrish, I am glad to hear you have an A-list God. Not everyone has.

[reddirish] 31/3/2023 14:15

Yes, we holders of the Ords have indeed needed something akin to divine help over these troubled years. From today's accounts, I'd estimate there is a high probability of a minimum of 2p per share remaining after the coming distribution, which is reflected in the share price, and with a following wind (and a helpful French government unwilling to see a certain manufacturer of glassware go to the wall) maybe up to 6p. I 'only' need 1p more to turn a gain on this sorry tale of mismanagement, which a while ago would have thought needed a...miracle?

[spectoacc] 29/3/2023 05:57

Agreed @wilwak, tho aa @chucko1 says, KKVL/SLFX have form here. Recall the NAV statement saying all's well, followed by a catastrophic update about a week later, followed by months of silence.

Then the vast write-downs, which turned out to be largely uneccessary.

Agree two RNS in a day, bad then good (better than other way around?) can be added to that list.

[wilwak] 28/3/2023 22:05

Yes. A little frustrating and probably not totally ethical.

All bad news in one announcement followed by the good news in a later one!

Surely for clarity there should have been just one announcement! Unless it was deliberate! Um…..

I wonder if LSE has any guidance on such things?

Fortunately I only sold a small percentage of my holding but still……. Grrrr.

[chucko1] 27/3/2023 17:31

Perhaps, but with SLF, anything (in terms of communication) is possible. It's all part of the game with this one.

[wilwak] 27/3/2023 17:05

Well …… two announcements on the same day..

First one in the morning pretty negative and provoked some selling and a reduction in the ordinary share price

Then in the afternoon a positive announcement about a strong dividend including a magic extra £3m of funds causing buying and a increase in the share price.

Seems a little improper to me. Will we see tomorrow that any insiders bought on the dip?

I actually reduced my holding a little after the first announcement. Not something I’d have done if I’d known about the second announcement.

One single announcement would have been better!

[reddirish] 27/3/2023 16:25

Anyone have any idea of where the extra £3m on the Ordinaries came from? I have no recollection of a previous, undistributed capital realisation. Is it possible that some of the rump is performing, or did I miss something?

[andy246] 27/3/2023 15:48

Trading volumes are so inconsistent that just a few buy orders in a row can really push up the price (and viceversa) beyond 'fair' value

[chucko1] 27/3/2023 15:17

Andy, you think logic plays any part to short term moves on this one???

[andy246] 27/3/2023 15:12

3.5p distribution to both Ord and C shares.
Prices should bounce up today

[chucko1] 27/3/2023 15:03

And 3.5p it is on both shares.

It's not rocket science.

[chucko1] 27/3/2023 12:31

Precisely. This may be why we heard nothing on a C payout. Likely we now will, and in pretty short order.

If the Cs remain offered (not tradable) at 7.5 (I bought at 7.6 earlier in a few) - I expect 3.5p of capital return, upon which they "ought to be" 4.5p. I see the remaining NAV at around 8.5p, perhaps a touch higher - so a circa 50% discount. These loans continue to perform and even if they blow up in a few months, the recovery value + interest + amortisation is likely worth a fair bit more than 50% given the nature of the underlying.

In contrast, the ADs were really equities from the get-go. A zero result (or not far from) is not extraordinary. What was extraordinary was to think the Cs were ever worth the price they once fell to, given the reality of the payment streams which were still being paid, and in plain sight. From here, it is not impossible to lose money on the Cs, but you would be really, really unlucky. To make money on the Ords, even at this price, you would actually have to be moderately fortunate, IMO.

As it stands I have no Ords, and an increasing number of Cs. 7 figures+