Sivota Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 02/10/2018 09:10

Daft name changes seem to be in vogue along with the trendy misuse of the word journey. If I was a customer or potential customer with a down to earth approach to running a business I wouldn't be impressed.

[bookbroker] 02/10/2018 08:10

Only a name, and St Ives is the print business, this now has no connection whatsoever with that apart from being the owner of a couple of buildings relating to the legacy side! They are supposedly a marketing company, so plenty of opportunity to research the point of the name!

[battyliveson] 02/10/2018 08:07

Although glad to get rid of stIves brand name, as it sounds like a make of cheese, I am not convinced the new name sounds any better (sounds like a local funeral director firm). RNS had so many buzz words I felt like selling, but I will wait for update in just over a weeks time. Be good to see some numbers rather than hot air.

B

[spooky] 25/9/2018 13:27

pireric, consensus i have for 2019 is 10.5p FWIW.

[bookbroker] 25/9/2018 13:13

Getting a head of steam up here!

[bookbroker] 21/8/2018 12:30

This is still way undervalued, at the current valuation this ought to be open to an offer, seems very little action in UK market, but SIV is now a US story!

[miti 1000] 16/8/2018 22:12

Thanks pireric, got my figures mixed up. 140p seems more realistic based on 12p for 2019.

[pireric] 16/8/2018 20:34

miti, 2019 consensus earnings estimates are for 11.9p so don't see how 180p is a PE of 9, more like 15x

[miti 1000] 16/8/2018 14:23

From my crude figures, I'd hope debt at year end of 3/8/2018 was around 5.3 million .

Profits for y/e 31/7/2019 are expected to be about 20.5 million.

With deferred considerations for 2018 and 2019 of around 29 million that puts SIV in a pretty strong position in 1 years time with net debt (without any further freehold property sales) of 13.8million with no other debt due.

That looks a strong position and I hope would command a p/e of 9 which should easily equate to a share price of 180p for a fast growing digital media company. The Siv board have done an excellent job to date of turning the company around imo.

Anyone more savvy care to correct my figures ?

[salchow] 16/8/2018 14:01

scotch broth - which part of the statement implies "accident prone"? A slowdown in one area of healthcare? Businesses don't grow in a linear way. You experience positive surprises one day and have problems to overcome the next and the statement does not imply anything other than good results. The share has doubled since the re-organisation commenced and hopefully over the next few years may double again!

[bookbroker] 16/8/2018 11:48

Any company is accident prone as you so eloquently put it, this is ripe for a takeover, the valuation beyond write-downs is derisory!

[scotch broth] 16/8/2018 10:25

Outlook positive but the statement shows that the company is still accident prone.

[battyliveson] 16/8/2018 08:40

Good TU, at upper end of market expectations, and revenue ok against a tough comparative.

Without debt, new CEO, strong new NED, rid of legacy businesses, and focussing on digital sweetspot, hopefully this can be a nice turnaround story over next 36 months if they are not taken out by a competitor.

Happy to hold and look forward to full results and strategy update in October.

B.

[bareknee] 09/8/2018 20:42

Batty

St Ives FY closed out last Friday ( 3rd August ), so there'll likely be a trading update in the next week or so.

BB

[battyliveson] 07/8/2018 12:22

Just saw an RNS on a purchase by Stillwell, Ned/Chair. Good to see, although relatively small beer. Not sure what the rules are on purchasing/selling prior to a TU, but normally there are closed periods. Perhaps they do not intend to publish a TU imminently?

I was rather hoping to see an update as I have an overweight holding in SIPP based on recent activity of debt clearance and strategic clarity. Would be nice to see some financial guidance.

B

[bookbroker] 07/8/2018 12:15

I’m beginning to see the current weakness as a precursor to an acquisition and a placing to partially fund it, just surmising, but I’d like to see the next trading update soon. This company has purged its debt pretty much, there will be writedowns against intangibles, but we know the earn-outs on Solstice, next update will confirm the outlook and future plans. They clearly see the US as the future!

[battyliveson] 05/7/2018 10:19

I agree with your analysis bookbroker. Seems to be largely under the radar. When I do various searches and stock scans, most show significant debt as they will not be updated for recent disposals.

I suspect we need to see how the digital side of the business is performing to get a view on valuation going forward. I am fully invested and awaiting solid news on current trading. Who knows, maybe Sorrel is looking for a new vehicle?

B

[bookbroker] 05/7/2018 09:53

Whether or not the market is under-valuing this company or not is subjective, but on the basis of practically reducing their net debt to zero, and now becoming a pure digital advertising play is worthy of a higher price. We know there will be large goodwill writedowns in the next set of results, but these are non-cash essentially, and the onus will be on the remainder of the business. I was pretty abrasive about M. Armitage a year or two back, but what he has done is achieve to clear St. Ives of all of its legacy businesses, and that should be credited. In the process he has shored up the balance sheet, to leave this company in a far stronger position. Surprises me the share price is not higher, but I think shareholders will be rewarded with a decent dividend sooner rather than later!

[miti 1000] 25/6/2018 10:25

Yes, the disposal and price is inline with broker forecasts .SIV is starting to look cheap imo going forward. Its now a pure digital play on a low PE .Deferred considerations to work through in next 2 years but I'd hope we could get a rerating to 180-200p within the next 18 months if as seems likely digital marketing continues to power ahead.

[bookbroker] 25/6/2018 08:58

I don’t think so, why would SIV have let it go for that, their debt is now relatively low, the reason is that at the half year it is clear that it is making considerably less profit than the previous year, it is held within the Marketing Activation section. The bulk of the profit comes from digital marketing within the strategic marketing division, 85%, so best to get shot of it! The cash is better than a weakening business!

[this_is_me] 25/6/2018 08:50

It looks like Paragon got an excellent deal and SIV a really poor one.

[bookbroker] 25/6/2018 08:36

I’m assuming that the valuation was based on the level of debt within that division, tried to find the breakdown at last set of full year results to little avail, most likely reflects the low margins produced, but I’m surprised at that profit figure, Paragon states the turnover to be in excess of EURO 40 MLN!

[battyliveson] 25/6/2018 08:07

Seems a low multiple on the disposal, but i guess the view must have been that future profits would decline.

At least there seems a clear strategy, and if nothing else it can be easily acquired without a purchaser having to deal with legacy businesses.

I am holding, but would like to see forecasts for the remaining business to get a feel for valuation. Still sense there is a good 30% to 50% upside in share price from here.

Best wishes.

B