Simigon Share Discussion Threads

[ianb5004] 19/11/2013 15:58

don't forget trading update in 2 weeks will provoke interest as trading strong and ahead of market expectations.

The Us put the cevt contract back whilst the Gov was in trouble with its debts but back on track now. They issued an update on 16/9 that final Rfp would not be issued that fiscal year. The new usa fiscal year began on 1st October so now await final rfp and hopefully news on that 30 mil contract in sim favour and a massive increase in the share price
Plenty others on pipeline, just a matter of time.

[diggulden] 19/11/2013 15:00

Well this is like watching paint dry! Come on Simigon, give us some amazing contract news!

[fruitninja84] 13/11/2013 22:01

Waiting for that huge contract win before I get in tho support strong at 30p would be a good time to get in here? Bit risky as it could break down so Imo wait then pounce .

[ianb5004] 05/10/2013 16:34

new broker target of 45p doesn't seem to take account of the potential to win the cevt $30million contract. id expect if sim do win that then the broker will revise the target substantially upwards. Id certainly expect 60p if they did get the contract.

[diggulden] 03/10/2013 10:05

Wish I had some more money to buy some with!

[malachey] 03/10/2013 09:43

I seem completely unable to buy today. anyone else having this problem?

[diggulden] 02/10/2013 16:56

Missed this from last week in Shares Mag.



Super strong SimiGon

It is hard to find fault in half-year figures from high-tech simulation training specialist SimiGon (SIM:AIM) which falls 7.2% to 35.25p. A real curmudgeon might quibble over lower margin hardware kit that's stripped gross margins from 71% to 65% year-on-year, or the 23% increase in sales and marketing costs, but even so, these are outstanding results.

The important bits are strong revenue growth, managed costs and brilliant cash generation, giving net cash $8.45 million, almost a third of the £16.6 million market value.

'Looking ahead, we have excellent revenue visibility, a strong order book in place and an encouraging pipeline of business leads, which leads us to expect that revenues for the full year will be slightly ahead of market expectations,' spells out chief executive Ami Vizer. That's about as upbeat as an investors might reasonably wish to read.

USAF SIM Box
Underpinning Vizer's optimism are several operational box ticks, not least its vital jump up as a prime contractor. This includes supplying all of the simulated training needs to the entire armed forces of one unnamed South American country, plus June's win (believed to be with a South East Asian nation) that should escalate into a vastly bigger opportunity assuming typical excellence with the initial $6.7 million rollout.

These bigger deals also explain the slightly higher weighting of lower margin kit that pulled back gross margins, something that needs to be watched but is fundamentally a positive for the future.

There's also scope to extend deeper into commercial markets thanks to its Check-6 partnership, first in oil and mining. No wonder finnCap tech analyst Lorne Daniel has upped his shares target price from 40p to 45p.

So why are the shares down, you might reasonably wonder?

Unhelpful City wags usually pitch the droll – more sellers than buyers – response, but there's more to it than that. We also need to put the shares longer-term run into perspective. They've rallied over 23% since the start of the month, 62% over the last three months and have soared 169% in 2013. Whoosh!

SIMIGON (DI) - Flexible Chart

We spotted the value early at Shares, first flagging their jet-fuelled profits potential way back in our microcaps cover feature (see page 18 of PDF) almost exactly two years ago at just 4.88p, for a near-650% profit so far, before doing so again as a Play of the Week last October (see page 8 of PDF) at 22.25p.
It would take a steely disposition for any private investor or small cap fund to resist the temptation to top-slice a bit of those sort of profits. But I wouldn't expect anyone to be giving up on the shares for the longer-term, this is far too interesting, and exciting, a growth story.

[diggulden] 01/10/2013 12:29

Good to see a bit of upward pressure the last 2 days, especially in poor markets, hoping this can attack 40p in the next couple of weeks.

[ianb5004] 25/9/2013 12:17

nice one the 30k shares buy looks like the ii buyer again. its ready to bounce now. buys coming in. I reckon you've timed that spot on. (unless you were the 30k)

[diggulden] 25/9/2013 10:17

Missed the price yesterday, but got back in again this morning, not quite at my target price but close enough.

Pull back was healthy and hoping for some big things in Q4.

[ianb5004] 24/9/2013 15:38

with hindsight could have sold at 37 on interims and bought back at @32-33p all the
ones who jumped in for interims left now so i expect it to hold for next wave up.

Id expect a contract in october and if juicy will see 40p+ imo - if cevt will see double the current share price but all in my opinion. good luck getting back in dd

[diggulden] 24/9/2013 14:30

Getting close to a good re-entry price I think.

Pull back was needed, I was personally hoping for a bit more information in the interims but SIM have always been quite secretive for obvious reasons.

I wonder if we will see any more contract wins on the O&G side of the business in the near term, there is certainly a lot of activity in that sector at the moment!

[melodrama] 20/9/2013 14:42

Cheers Ian

[ianb5004] 20/9/2013 14:24

mel, there has been a ii seller and a matching ii buyer for 3 weeks. the 50k is the buyer. all large sells and then subsequent buys have been matched up.

5 trading days to q4. fingers crossed.

varies not had to be optimistic about simigon, 2 year charts look superb.

[staverly] 18/9/2013 10:59

varies: the validity of "affordable" fundamental/estimate data provided by data vendors is, in my hard-gained experience, rarely to be trusted.

[melodrama] 18/9/2013 10:34

Big 50k buy this morning, for SIM, that's a big trade

[varies] 18/9/2013 10:28

staverly & lanb
I hope your optimism is vindicated as I sold only 1/10th of my holding

[ianb5004] 18/9/2013 09:24

great interims and the usual dip but sims fast growth will continue and the share price will continue its march north.

Ami Vizer, Chief Executive Officer of SimiGon, stated: "We are delighted to report a further six months of excellent operational progress, continued revenue growth and increased profits. We continue to execute on our long term strategy and achieve our targets evidenced by the successful transition to become a major prime contractor, enhancing SimiGon's reputation as a market leader and company of choice for the world's largest simulation training programmes.

"Looking ahead, we have excellent revenue visibility, a strong order book in place and an encouraging pipeline of business leads, which leads us to expect that revenues for the full year will be slightly ahead of market expectations.

"We are delighted with the ongoing success of SimiGon and are confident that this will continue in the second half of 2013 and beyond."

[ianb5004] 17/9/2013 19:01

According to a report from Global Industry Analysts the greater Modelling & Simulation market is valued at more than $20 billion annually and the projection for the global eLearning market is $107.3 billion by the year 2015.

The biggest driver of the training and simulation market growth is the defence industry. Despite the US defence budget cuts, the US Department of Defence remains the undisputed leader in seeking training and simulation solutions for military preparedness and readiness for symmetric and asymmetric warfare.

SimiGon has seen a continuing increase in the industry trend towards usage of simulation based training as the US, and other governments, seek more ways to reduce costs while meeting the increasing pressure to develop innovative training solutions to keep military personnel trained to the exacting standards required.

In the military pilot training market alone, Forecast International projects 1,600 new fixed wing military training aircraft over the next ten years and the market for fighter aircraft will be worth nearly $194.5 billion as approximately 3,150 fighters will be manufactured.

SimiGon is well positioned with its industry leading technology, and well established position, to take advantage of this global opportunity. Its solutions are not only cost efficient but also deliver better pass rates than conventional means giving customers the best possible training at less cost.

[ianb5004] 17/9/2013 17:35

47p sounds about right. ; )

9 trading days to start of Q4. will we win that huge $30 million Cevt contract. Its due to be awarded in Q4 and we know from the last memo the US Gov are in a big rush to get this awarded and underway.

The last contract win for Sim was in the face of the same competition. Simigon have the very quickly adapted simbox running as their ace to answer the governments question "how quickly can you deliver" I think we are very strong contenders and a win of this size surely will see us up in the region of 70p.

Exciting times coming up next month here, potential and very real chance of a game changer.

[staverly] 17/9/2013 15:06

varies: Rubbish in, rubbish out.

H1 outlook states trading in line with market expectations. Market expectations, unchanged since June from the single sell-side equity analyst, suggest a net profit of $1m. Even taking the share price at its recent high water mark of 38p and multiplying that by fully diluted shares ~47.7m gives you £18.1m "market cap". Take away cash balance of £5.37m and then divide by 2013 net profit of around £660k.
This gives a multiple of x19.2

FWIW your multiple of x27 taken together with basic shares in issue (not FD) would suggest a share price of 47p.

[varies] 17/9/2013 10:37

lanb5004
To answer your question :
Market cap after deducting $9m of cash is about $16m.
Net profits for 2013 : I hazard a guess of $600,000. PE 27.
This is not an unreasonable rating for a company with exciting prospects but the doubling of the share price over recent months led me to expect that the outlook for the year would be better than "in line with market expectations".
The price paid for the few shares I sold yesterday was 11p and I certainly do not expect to see that price again.
There may be excellent news coming which would push the price over 40p but, on the other hand, there may not ! I hope there is.
If the price were to drift down to 25p I would probably buy these shares back.

[diggulden] 16/9/2013 15:05

Maybe Ian, maybe not. I will watch volume and try to make a decision from there. My timing is usually awful, so no doubt I will end up buying back in at a higher price than I should do!

Will be interesting to watch volumes for the rest of this week.

One thing is for certain, the downside from anything at 30p is very limited indeed.

[ianb5004] 16/9/2013 14:17

dig, personally cant see it dropping for you to re-enter at 30p. I expected a fall back today, normal on aim after a climb to the results and healthy to retrace, if it gets to 32p ill be buying more but I think it will settle 34-36p short term before pushing on.

I feel pretty sure contracts will come before end October and then no looking back.