Silverdell Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 05/7/2013 18:24

yum yum yums

Mella Mello lets dance after all its a merry go round.

[cockneyrebel] 05/7/2013 18:01

Boros10:

"It may be too early to draw lessons about SID but it has not stopped some people looking to scapegoat Mello, the private investor group who arrange meeting on an ad-hoc basis with small cap management teams. The central argument appears to be that meeting managers is at best a waste of time and at worst leads to private investors being duped by unscrupulous directors.

The statistics show otherwise. Companies which have presented at either Mello Beckenham or Mello Central are up on average 40% year on year over the last five years and this includes the bad ones which most of those attending the meetings are likely to have avoided. True, there have been some staggering outperformers including LOQ and Judges Scientific but it would seem that meeting and questioning management is usually effective and is an important part of a value investor's tool kit in the small cap arena.

I'm not sure that stat is valid. As most of the co's featured there are companies that are already performing well then the weighting of the performance there should be well into the positive zone by some way imo. If they selected random performers and then in some way picked a number that then rose 40% p.a. that would be more impressive. I suspect tho a co that isn't doing well isn't going to want to be invited and is less likely to be invited.

What's happened to RGD's visits there and the 'lovely yum yums' they brought with them to shmooze investors at Mello? The dogs tend to slide off the radar there imo and replaced by a new hottie - that enhances the stats imo.

CR

[boros10] 05/7/2013 18:00

Thanks for your comments on my post earlier.

CR, I have to agree with you. It's really dangerous to blindly follow the lead of others whether they be experienced private investors, corporate brokers or share pundits. In this game you have to think for yourself and so I understand your desire to avoid the dangers of being seduced by dishonest directors and having your judgement undermined by the enthusiasm of other private investors or group think.

And it seems to be working for you. From what I can gather you have enjoyed fantastic returns in the first half of 2013 given the performance of Thomas Cook, Dixons, Thorntons, Hasgrove et al. It only goes to show that many styles of investing can work, you just have to find the winning style that suits your personality. Good luck for the rest of the year!

[cockneyrebel] 05/7/2013 16:41

No hvs, but where investors have a bit of sh*t you are there, feeding on it. There's few worse than those who live to revel in the pain of others imo.

What a sad life you must lead.

CR

[adamb1978] 05/7/2013 16:40

just filter him rather than give him the attention which he's seeking. Will hopefully then go away when people stop responding to him

[hvs] 05/7/2013 16:38

lol !!!!!!!

I never ran SID

[hvs] 05/7/2013 16:34

lol !!!!!!!

lol !!!!!!

and what will it say ???

BONUSES all round no doubt

[adamb1978] 05/7/2013 16:33

ERB2008 - you sound incredibly close to events....if what you're saying is that SID remain intact albeit with the administrators overseeing Kitsons for a few weeks then thats about as good a result as could come out of this.

WOuld still mean that share price would re-open strongly down but probably less-down than could have been the case

[erb2008] 05/7/2013 15:11

I believe the Administrators had two days from Wednesday to write the recovery plan.They will then monitor and ensure the company complys with the plan for a further 3 weeks (maybe it is 4) before "signing them off" and walking away.

I would expect a statement tonight or Monday morning.

[kimboy2] 05/7/2013 14:06

hxxp://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/silverdell-subsidiary-in-administration

[owenski] 05/7/2013 10:16

Very good post from Boris post 1640.

I was at the same Mello event. I don't always meet management. I was at that particular event to review JDG, which is a slick and class business.

SID was not in that league, I thought the managers (CEO & FD) were a couple of builder types who were out of their comfort zone and depth and the cash flow model of the business did not appeal to me.

What I couldn't understand was how they picked up EDF in the first place, I understand the rationale but it seemed a superior business and if it was so good why did the 'owner' of EDF then dump his 'new shares' PDQ, I don't accept the - 'to fill institution demand' nonsense.

I traded SID profitably because in part because post EDF I gave SID the benefit of the doubt and a move toward prime contractor status seemed to be the future for SID and therefore improving the cash flow model, plus for trading - not investing, there was momentum in the share price

However the continuing share price fall from 20p downwards gave a message, I don't know fully whats going on here, but something stinks.

Nutley recently presented to say that growth could be achieved on existing resources, if he didn't know this was in the wings then it was gross incompetence, if he did then its rank dishonesty. Either way in the fullness of time my impression remains confirmed a couple of scammy builder types out of their depth.

I truly am sorry for any who have lost here and hope for some resolution for you all, I have an associate who has lost here and it sucks.

Share-Soc could be of use here to help put together some shareholder action.

Best wishes and commiserations.

[adamb1978] 05/7/2013 10:16

Harry - obviously and equally obviously they're not giving any answers. They would be able to tell some random punter without announcing it

[harry the haddock] 05/7/2013 10:12

this might be a very stupid question, but has anyone actually rang silverdell and asked what the present situation is?

[adamb1978] 05/7/2013 10:02

Thanks Kimboy. [e-mail]

Cheers

[kimboy2] 05/7/2013 10:00

Adam
If you get me an email address I will send you them.

[hvs] 05/7/2013 09:58

Mismagers , its all SPIN SPIN SPIN

[adamb1978] 05/7/2013 09:57

Kimboy2 - do you have Kitson's accounts which you could email me?

[adamb1978] 05/7/2013 09:56

So if administrators to Kitsons have been appointed by the banks, they'll be looking to realise as much value as possible from it and return it to the banks. The impact on SID going forwards (and so that it could be modelled) is then:

1) Reduced size and earnings power of SID. Question being how much of plc's financials were contributed by Kitsons. Does anyone have these figures to hand?

2) What proceeds will the administrators realise from flogging Kitsons. Likely to be derisory (2x-3x EBIT?) though this would reduce the borrowings of SID plc though given the price achieved for K, the reduction will only be a partial off-set to the loss of earnings.

3) Banking facilities would need replacing as the HSBC ones would have been called. Likely then that SID's borrowing rates and other finance costs will increase

Anything else I'm missing?

Whats the chances of a 430pm RNS today?

[kimboy2] 05/7/2013 09:52

Thanks for that BrianGeeee that is the clearest explanation of the sequence of events that I have seen so far.

I suspect that a placing is in the offing and they won't make an announcement until everyone is signed up, and in effect the short term problem is therefore resolved.

The question is what terms this fund raising is likely to be on.

In the March half year report the company owed £13.339m to the bank and had £6.445m cash.

The forecast profit for this year was about £10m, but not doubt will be open to revision now. Kitsons last year produced £1.3m profit so is a relatively small part of the larger group.

IMV it would be better to let Kitsons go, and presumably be sold, than accept a derisory refunding.

[hippo] 05/7/2013 09:46

I have it on good authority that both Kitsons and Silverdell are trading normally at present.

But that is not to say, Shareholder won't be stitched up here, but we know the Directors have a lot to lose also.

[erb2008] 05/7/2013 09:44

The company cannot make a statement as the administrators still have a job to do and there is legal process and procedure to follow.In any event a statement by the company without the backing/support/approval of the administrators would not carry much weight given the situation.

The two creditors together were in the region of £60k.

Most of what BGeee has said is also my understanding - I just don't get the HSBC bit - doesn't make sense if Kitson had £m's in the bank.

[briangeeee] 05/7/2013 09:32

Kimboy2, it's obviously still unclear as the company haven't bothered to clarify. They probably don't need to as the company's shares are suspended, but it does mean that everyone will continue to speculate. My understanding of the sequence, although it's largely speculation is as follows:

1. GPM group, through their solicitors JGR, issued a winding up petition against Kitson Environmental Europe Ltd.

2. Kitsons paid the bill, which I believe was for around £60k, although the company brokers have suggested it was for a lower figure. They also have suggested that another creditor was involved, so perhaps it was the sum of the two that came to that figure.

3. The solicitor offered to withdraw the winding up order, but the company or its representative didn't respond, so the hearing went ahead. I've no idea why it wasn't withdrawn automatically - perhaps legal cost weren't paid.

4. At the start of the hearing a barrister (either Kitsons' or HSBC's) requested that the hearing was adjourned for a week, as "the group" was going to be placed into administration by HSBC within the week. This appears to mean Kitsons Group, and not the top level group. Having a debenture over assets, I assume they're entitled to do this when someone else threatens winding-up, but I don't know the detail.

5. I assume the hearing did not proceed further, and the next day HSBC proceeded with appointing Administrators to Kitsons Group. HSBC are said not to be "trigger happy" in this regard, and it does appear as if they were looking for an opportunity to take this action, so I suspect they considered all not to be well.

6. As Boros10 highlighted, there seem to have been more cash flow issues with Silverdell generally than they were willing to discuss. This might be because they had been considering an equity fund raising, but that option was damaged by rumours and a falling price. It was clear from what they said however at the meeting a couple of weeks ago that they were actively considering raising funds. When they said that HSBC were über cautious, and they couldn't let them stand in their way, it did seem there was a certain tension between the company and its bank, and also a desire to increase debt beyond a level that HSBC felt was acceptable, although I didn't realise the significance of the remark at the time.


So, we are where we are now. Unless there's more to come out of the woodwork about about the state of the company's finances, I don't see why the company (and larger group) can't remain as a going concern and moderate growth. Of course experience shows that things rarely work out as positively as you hope. I guess there will be an equity fund raising. MVI might know what's going on, but I expect few others will yet, certainly no Private Investors at this stage.

[typo56] 05/7/2013 09:26

ERB2008, if it were that simple surely the company could have enlightened its owners a little by now as to what is going on?

It will be interesting to see how this pans out and what the lessons might be for assessing other companies in the AIM cesspit.