Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[bos1234] 01/3/2024 09:07

Just a naive question, millions and millions of shares have been sold in recent days, can anyone suggest who is buying them ?

[weatherman] 29/2/2024 20:22

If another placing is needed I doubt AOP will want their shareholder diluted, in which case they may make an offer for the rest of the company.

[tripletop1] 29/2/2024 19:41

The Silence is deafening that’s for sure..

Can we really assume this is the end? Hard to believe but surely, surely, someone has got to be looking at this and thinking they can take over this company for peanuts and secure the global license for a safe oral iron drug.. that someone can only be Viatris as they are invested and can just bring shield under their wing and that would be that..

can only hope this dialogue is taking place in the background and with AOP’s blessing.. the least GM could do given the cataclysmic BS he’s served up

On a side note little wonder so many growth companies are swerving AIM/London - the manipulation and malpractice coupled with the lack of regulation is making AIM un-investable.

[ny boy] 29/2/2024 16:20

Nothing to pump here, they had their chsnce but blew it a few years ago,awful management

[reviewwworld] 29/2/2024 08:10

I'm convinced more than half the users in this forum are pump and dump scam merchants with relentless bullish drivel in the face of factual disaster."Oh next stop 12p then 28p""Here we go""Actually I think it's a positive set of results, buying opportunity on this collapse IMO"Et cetera

[ny boy] 28/2/2024 13:05

wallywoo spot on, you forgot the scam mercants Nobby gnome and Peachie too!

[aimscam1] 28/2/2024 09:36

Someone getting out at any cost this was 12p not long ago lol

[dave4545] 28/2/2024 08:25

I had a little trade in it, bought too soon at 2.5p, watched it drop to 2.35p tried to buy more but it's been more or less NT to buy since and now it's NT to buy at 2.5p again so it might have a little bounce of 10% as traders buy the bottom like I have

[bones699] 27/2/2024 22:33

I think the share price here could easily double..Let's face it I invested in Angle Plc which basically is a hopeless money cess pit costing £140m to date ffs with absolutely zero chance of success and led by a a habitual lying bar steward of a CEO who mugs retail investors for a living!

[qipincha] 27/2/2024 21:38

bones,

I use 20% growth rate which is below the lowest growth rate in 2023.

3.3m is the averaged spend in H1 2023(2.3m in 2022). yes, you are right, the cost may rise in H2 2023, but as they have taken several measures to reduce cost, I think this is a close estimation.

$145 sale price is also based on H2 2023 figure, so I think that is close enough

in fact, with $13.9m cash on 31 Dec 2023, in my calculation, I have about $3m headroom for the company in case any number used here is too optimistic


hope the new CFO know how to use their limited budget wisely

[bolitix] 27/2/2024 21:17

If that 20% assumption proved right (lets face that is half of what they achieved 2023 so why not)they would be on a US sales target of 184k YE24 and 381k YE25. Given the $145 price tag is targeted to be $220-240 by then all looks rosy. But a 208% US sales increase left us at 2.33p this morning so something not right at STX

[bones698] 27/2/2024 20:46

Yes but they are old figures an dbo idw aon cost of sales and losses. Revenue has increased significantly but at what extra cost? The fact they chose to omit those details from the trading update to me is a great concern.

[qipincha] 27/2/2024 20:38

bones,

all of these figures (3.3m monthly spend, $145 unit price) are taken from their recent report/updates. you can find them yourselves.

$2m ex-US is also based on their last year figure.

20% quarterly growth rate is the lower end assumption based on previous quarterly growth.

[scubadiverr] 27/2/2024 19:34

They're also extremely selective over the questions they answer and always ensure to have little time at the end of presentations. They didn't mention cash burn and I assume there is a reason for that. Their wording regarding using current assets to take them to profitability also appeared contrived, an attempt to misdirect imo.

[aimscam1] 27/2/2024 19:29

Total scam CEO making a fortune in wages . 1p soon money running out as well .

[bones698] 27/2/2024 19:06

Qip. How do you assume that there is simply insufficient detail to make such assumptions.

Even with the increased revenue they seem to be burning through cash at an alarming rate and now with the loan there are even more risks of missing covenents. There are simply to many unknowns and lack of trust in this bod anymore.

They seem to go to great lengths when they update the market to avoid mentioning losses and so its impossible to conclude when they might run out of cash. Going of the lower than expected sales figures and amount of cash used j would say they are in trouble later this year.

If they breach the loan terms things will get bad very quickly too.

Not investable at this point imo and no mention of break even which is concerning even with the increased revenue. Probnaly points to the new sales team taking a hefty slice of sales as commission.

[qipincha] 27/2/2024 16:27

my calculation is
with monthly spend of 3.3m
quarterly growth rate of 20%
unit price of $145
$2m income yearly from ex-US

they can go through 2024-2025 without the need or raising funding
any improvement on the above figures will add more head space

[hairballradical] 27/2/2024 16:03

Big seller out by the looks of it? Time to get stuck in at rock bottom prices.

It will survive and splutter into breakeven, once that becomes apparent it'll rerate back to AOP previous offer region. So potential 2-3 bagger.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/2/2024 15:10

The problem is that nobody believes a word the BoD say now.

[bolitix] 27/2/2024 15:05

I said a couple of months ago this CEO will take this below 1p share price Even with a 200% sales gain over 2023 he has managed to take the share price down 25 fold to date. VTRS share price is about 13p and i dont know AOPs but which of these who take over we cant expect the share price to ever top theirs. Now i am not gloating here as i have lost lots on STX!

[qipincha] 27/2/2024 15:04

watch their recent presentation again,

Shanbhag did said "we've made adjustments to our business to make sure that our EXISTING RESOURCES get us to cash flow positive in the second half of 25"

also, he highlighted:
*investment directly linked to growth and scaling
*delay or cancel some spend and move them to 2025
*focus on working capital, manage supply chain cost, e.g. API and production cost
*improve distribution process

[qipincha] 27/2/2024 13:56

The other thing I hope is positive, is the new CFO, Santosh Shanbhag, reading his bio, he seems has good reputation in the field. so hope he is good at maths and do not mess around again.


Shield Therapeutics PLC - Commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on iron deficiency product Accrufer - Hires Santosh Shanbhag as chief financial officer, effective next Tuesday. He replaces Hans-Peter Rudolf, who left Shield in October to pursue new opportunities. Shanbhag was previously CFO of Nasdaq-listed Akili Inc, which he "helped transform...from a private to a public entity". Before this, he held various senior finance leadership roles at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc, including as Head of International Finance & Accounting.


About Vertex

[qipincha] 27/2/2024 13:26

Nope, the company will not finish. But market panic when there is uncertainties. Also, the CEO has not won investors support in recent years.
Saying that, the company still has a good product and currently making approx 4-5m income per quarter and growing. The question is if they have a good saving plan to go through 2024 without asking for further funding. They properly realise it already, hence they mentioned a lot about saving in the recent meeting.
Based on my calculation, if they can keep the cost below 3m per month, they should be able to survive.