Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 26/1/2024 12:49

Oh we're changing names now. ....

Ok Dim, So you haven't analysed the data, clearly. You deflect by posing a daft question.

Dim - for your information (for Fearccru 30mg capsules) to total prescriptions Jan - Nov 2023

Bristol 378 prescriptions - 25% increase from Jan to November
Nottingham 349 prescriptions 105% increase from Jan to November
Linconshire 315 prescriptions 23% increase from Jan to November

Total written prescriptions Jan - Nov 2023 5,237

@ $148 that's $775k

Dim - do you understand those numbers or do you need some crayons to do the math ?

[jimbren] 26/1/2024 12:37

Hatefullofsky can you tell me what the total NHS sales will be if all trusts hit the same per capita sales as the top 3 currently achieve?(Since you've analysed The data so thoroughly).

[skcots48] 26/1/2024 11:52

I've been a holder for too long, who stupidly averaged down rather than getting outSo having made that decision I don't care if its 40, 45 or 50 because all mean they are making real progress and I'll still holdBut I'm not daft, if they are under 46 I know there could be a sell off. Which means I have to wait longerThey still need to win more appeals and get at least 2 of the 3 major insurers they don't have to take on Accrufer. This will up their average price as well as making sure doctors use insuranceIf Viatris are any good they'll also up the number of sales reps if needed

[hatfullofsky] 26/1/2024 11:30

Jim - Have you analysed the UK prescription numbers, I have.

Could you tell me the top 3 prescribing NHS trusts and their growth in 2023, I can

[hatfullofsky] 26/1/2024 11:27

Jim - you do realise STX have been trading in a 6p - 8p range for 18 months, save for the spike in July when Q2 numbers were announced.

The market (as I am) are waiting for the Q4 numbers to confirm adoption.

[jimbren] 26/1/2024 11:19

Yes. It's already tanked.

Confidence is already low. The CFO who so mishandled the capital raise has left. New CFO been in situ for 10 days.

And that incredibly positive, factual, UK prescriptions data, plus the obvious strong momentum in the US say we will end ok in the quarters to come. A "miss" (to you, so obviously short) in q4 is in the price.

[hatfullofsky] 26/1/2024 09:50

Jim - are you suggesting that if they come in below 100k then the price won't tank ?

[jimbren] 26/1/2024 09:41

Hatefullofsky ... The share price is already obviously discounting below 100k, so anything above is a bonus. You must think what is in the price already, not what is in management promises.

[hatfullofsky] 26/1/2024 08:51

Skcots48 - you are correct 46k needed for 100k in FY 23 but would you be happy with that when they have revised the estimates down and now stand at between 100,000 - 300,000

I would want to be mid to upper range, not low end

Let's just hope we are both wrong and they smash the numbers

[bolitix] 25/1/2024 17:33

This already fell. This CEO said 2yrs all fixed but merged with VTRS instead. Every time the share price gathers pace he pursues salary paying agenda via loans/sell-offs rather than paying salaries from profits. I have no idea how he got the job but had share price 57p when he started. Historically it was over £1.80 on a US premis. Now there following that agenda so should not be this low even with a doughnut CEO.

[jimbren] 25/1/2024 15:33

Sounds like some people here setting STX for a fall on "disappointing" sales numbers.

[jimbren] 25/1/2024 15:20

Bolitix,what's your point? 4x the sales, 4x the staff. Sounds about right.

[bolitix] 25/1/2024 15:05

It was nearly 10k in 4q22 but i said pro-rata. That was with 22 people. They now have 100!!!

[skcots48] 25/1/2024 14:35

I think its 46K to hit 100k for year

[hatfullofsky] 25/1/2024 13:02

Hopefully an update early Feb anything less than 50k and the miss the low end of the revised (down) 2023 estimates

[jimbren] 24/1/2024 18:03

Bolitix, they did 9k prescriptions in 4q22. 40k in 4q23 would be 4x, no?

[bolitix] 24/1/2024 17:00

They will show a significant yr on yr gain but their is no escape that pro-rata they need to achieve 42k sales 4Q23 to meet what they did 4Q22 with vastly lower operating costs and 4x less prescriber access capability. This CEO really needs to pull his finger out!

[jimbren] 24/1/2024 15:37

Twice daily, so "items" is just one month's supply, 60 pills, so just 1500 people on this in the UK so far. There is a long way to go, upwards, and it clearly works very well (in the UK, and thus it will work, and is working, in the US, obv) or we wouldn't see the exponential curve. Only mad losers would sell today - even if (and we PI's here don't know, ofc) there may be some small miss in 4q23 that some sharp s0d from a hedge fund is trying to short because they are trading on illegal inside information (you know who you are!)

[skcots48] 24/1/2024 14:00

Yes the bar is low in the UK but it has at least risen approx 66% in a year, Nov- NovToo many CCGs are still blocking this and SMC has permanently blocked this in Scotland. Stupid Scottish NHS prefers to pay for IV and all the associated costs when ferrous fails

[serratia] 24/1/2024 13:36

That's it thanks.

[jimbren] 24/1/2024 12:19

This?

hxxps://openprescribing.net/chemical/0901011Y0/

[serratia] 24/1/2024 11:04

A while back someone posted a link to a UK prescription site. I can't find the link, can anyone re post it.
Thanks.

[skcots48] 24/1/2024 09:21

I think he has a monthly repeat prescription (not 100%). Twice daily avoiding food

[jimbren] 24/1/2024 09:10

Data's all there. Daily supplement, I think, 60 pills per "item", so presumably 2 months supply - like normal.

If the best prescribing Trusts are the goal then two more 00's not mad.