Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[shandypants2] 07/8/2020 11:28

[...]

Proactive summary re yesterday's RNS.

I strongly suspect this data would have been made available in advance to any US pharmas so hopefully yesterday's formal verification hasn't been delaying the finalisation of any discussions.
Hopefully the next month or so will be interesting.

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 11:19

Does everyone a favour this if it gets rid of weak holders.

[paleje] 07/8/2020 09:56

Edison have reaffirmed their 326p target this morning.

[ny boy] 07/8/2020 09:23

Added a spread bet long earlier, nice pull back, onwards & upwards

[l0ngterm] 07/8/2020 09:05

Shandy: I think the last time it was the confidence that went, if you can't get the key figures right for your trial , how can an investor trust anything else. Hence the change at the top etc.

[l0ngterm] 07/8/2020 09:03

I went for a coffee and missed it lol

[shandypants2] 07/8/2020 09:02

Nice to see the H2H data independently verified, not sure why it took over 4 months though.
Have to agree with Cranky re 12 week endpoint (although it notes that many patients had additional IV injections during this period, and 65% is still a good result, albeit slightly higher than 20% off the IV equivalent).
It appears there was a massive over reaction to the initial RNS re not meeting end point and now the results, which are brilliant at 24,36 and 52 weeks, a similar opposite reaction has occurred.
Now the dust has settled hopefully we should see 150p range in next few weeks and hopefully £2 plus once a decent US deal is announced (hopefully in next few weeks).
The current broker valuations are all very conservative and none include an US upfront payment or any income from China etc.
Well done to all LTHs , particularly Peachie, Nobby, Dave etc who have kept me sane over the last few months.
This is my biggest holding by a country mile so my portfolio is looking a lot healthier now.

[its the oxman] 07/8/2020 09:01

Bought , but missed the bottom, surely significant upside from here though.

[nobbygnome] 07/8/2020 08:58

116-118 now...bouncing back!

[bobaxe1] 07/8/2020 08:54

Slice at 200

[coxypete] 07/8/2020 08:40

Took a small top slice yesterday around 120p but happy to wait for the US deal. Did have a feeling while news was good it wasn't transformational to mean a continuation of price today. Anyway think the US deal is closer now they can make a bit more of an economic case. Who are the major providers of IV iron treatments as they maybe a good fit - yes cannibalisation but also protects market share

[l0ngterm] 07/8/2020 08:32

I agree, but with the way things are, even IIs are taking profit now/sooner nowadays . The US deal or an update on China may push it higher but until then, I can't see much more moving this up. Sticky holders would of bought more in the 80, 90s with possible some trading small % of their holdings.

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 08:25

L0ngterm -> the daft thing is , it was sat at this level BEFORE approval. We now have approval , and broad label too !

[loafofbread] 07/8/2020 08:24

From the investor page we have a 48% single holder and then a few 10%.

Approx 70/80%

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 08:22

Typical trading here. STX seems to be affected more than most by what looks like day traders as it can swing up or down very quickly.

[l0ngterm] 07/8/2020 08:21

Peachie: I sold out a while back at 127 and bought back in, did the same yesterday with a view to possible buy back in today lower. I have a target of 110 lowest (as sat 105-110 before approval the last time) it may not drop as low, but lets see.

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 08:21

32% to be accurate !
49% are owned by a venture capitalist group

[colin12345678] 07/8/2020 08:18

Thanks peachie

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 08:17

From memory PIs have approx 35 %

[colin12345678] 07/8/2020 08:15

Morning what is the percentage in sticky hands please

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 08:07

Early sells. Hoping to buy back cheaper maybe ?! May well get locked out. As we saw yesterday when this rises it does so very quickly as not many shares in PIs hands. Risky game IMO

[rafboy] 07/8/2020 08:02

Thanks Peachie.

[fillipe] 07/8/2020 07:51

finnCap today reiterate their 350p target price for STX.

f

[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 07:49

Rafboy ... a previous post


Valuation
We are leaving our target valuation unchanged at 350p. We use a DCF model to value
Shield Therapeutics, with Feraccru/Accrufer estimated to be worth £412m, which implies
352p per share. This target price, however, excludes:
?The potential value of European milestones from Norgine, which are dependent on
reaching pre-defined in-market net sales of Feraccru. These amount to €50m, of which
€2m is expected to be paid in 2022 on completion of a paediatric study (due to start in
early 2020) and approval of a once-daily formulation of Feraccru. The balance is
expected to be paid over the next 5-10 years.
?Any milestones from a US partnering deal. Given the size of the US market (volume and
price) and the fact that Shield was able to negotiate a licensing deal for Europe at a time
of financial stress that generated an £11.0m upfront payment with €54.5m of
development and commercial milestones, we estimate that Shield could receive as much
as $50m upfront with over $100m of additional revenue-based milestones in the US.
?Any additional development and commercial milestones for China as well as for other
markets such as Japan and Korea

Not only are there many exclusions to the above but a £412m NPV seems quite conservative IMHO.

I am sure there was an interview last year when then CEO stated at its peak Feraccru could generate £500m p.a revenues. Not sure if this is total revenues or just royalties to STX, but even assuming the latter at 20% that's c£100m to STX and probably 90% profit. If so that would make us a £1bn company.

On page 5 of this Feb 2020 presentation just 5% of US market (so ultra conservative) generates a NPV of £821m alone so this makes the £412m estimate very low.


hxxps://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/STX-Corp-Deck_Investor-presentations-6_11Feb20.pdf

[borromini1] 07/8/2020 07:39

Nobby - can you tidy up your left over block on me posting on your threads please?