Shell Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:03

O and G prices falling, surprised Shell holding so well, 2275p my target.

[xxxxxy] 16/1/2019 15:55

Staying around for the £30 ish and may be more. There is no modern civilisation without oil. Perhaps sadly. But it is Reality

[adrian j boris] 16/1/2019 13:41

Just out of interest

if i said the net asset value excluding intangibles was above 1550p imo,then ask by how much,would anyone out there like to offer a guess or a clear link

i feel that advfn information is perhaps incorrect for 2017



FT figures it less when changed from usd to sterling

base end 2017 i think

IN american speak the book value end of september 2018 might be something like 3680p but not sure if intangibles are included as yet

EDIT intangibles not included


why do this exercise one might ask

just to see from where the analysts get their targets i say and possibly show undervaluation

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 12:51

Thank you. You are all very welcome.

[adrian j boris] 16/1/2019 12:47

CHEERS SOGOESIT

MUCH APPRECIATED AND INTERESTING

PUTS ANOTHER SLENT ON THINGS ALTOGETHER

[fjgooner] 16/1/2019 12:47

@Sogoesit,

Absolutely excellent posts - a comprehensive description of the supply market dynamics in play in this commodity area.

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 12:42

For the future, natural gas, internationally, could reach a pricing state similar to oil (pure commodity pricing).

However, this would depend on whether there would be sufficient surplus supply capacity, that was uncontracted, available to trade on an open market. The most likely avenue for this would be via the (floating) LNG supply market where discrete transportation takes place "at risk" from suppliers who own excess production capacity and the tankers themselves. This was how the crude markets developed into pure commodity markets historically.

A few years ago there was uncontracted LNG available but I think markets have tightened again since and, buyers being concerned about security of supply, tend to contract rather than rely on spot supply. Think base-load electricity generation or domestic gas supply to homes and houses. The capital investment required for the gasification-transportation-storage-liquefaction-storage-transportation chain makes "at risk" investment unviable.

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 12:34

Yes, aj boris, this may occur in certain markets and for different reasons.

Natural gas is a geographically isolated commmodity (against oil which is a "pure" commodity with a global price, spot, set 24/7 365 days a year for different qualities of crude).

Thus, natural gas is priced differently in the US whose market is bound geographically and has a near pure commodity price setting mechanism through the Henry Hub resulting in a continuous spot price. However this price is only applicable to the US.
It is not applicable to international gas sales contracts which tend to be between different (geographic) markets unless buyer and seller agree to index to such a spot price or other similar market price setting mechanism.
The UK has a similar price setting benchmark called the National Balancing Point used for the geography of the UK.
Between two different geographies it would be likely that a nations' spot pricing mechanism could be used as a bench mark. Say, for example, one geography exporting gas to the USA.

[adrian j boris] 16/1/2019 12:20

Sogoesit
16 Jan '19 - 12:17 - 4443 of 4443

thanks for that


but natural gas seems to be gradually breaking away from this so called indexing, or so it seemed substantially the other day

Could we now expect a gradual change over the longer period so it might be gas not oil wagging the dog

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 12:17

Indeed, aj boris, the question has beeen asked numerous times (post 4440)... and answered several times.

My answer is that gas markets and gas sales and purchase agreements are majority long term contracted sales and purchase markets.
When contracting, sellers and buyers attempt to mutually agree a price setting mechanism that ties their contracted price to a competitive fuel's price over the course of the contract. This is known as indexing.
Competitive fuels for natural gas are coal and oil. So indexing ties the natural gas sales price, at a specific point in time, to either of these or a basket of either or both and may also incorporate an element of economic indexing, like say CPI.

[adrian j boris] 16/1/2019 12:10

La Forge
14 Jan '19 - 14:25 - 4399 of 4441
0 2 0
4th quarter 2018
Event Date
Announcement date January 31, 2019
Ex-dividend date February 14, 2019
Record date February 15, 2019
Closing of currency election date (see Note below ) March 1, 2019
Pounds sterling and euro equivalents announcement date March 11, 2019
Payment date March 25, 2019

[ironhorse] 16/1/2019 11:55

When is the next ex div date? Please

[adrian j boris] 16/1/2019 11:41

p0pper
16 Jan '19 - 11:33 - 4439 of 4439
0 0 0
Seems like Shell is not related to the Gas price at the moment, any clues as to why this has not so much bearing seeing as we are so gas rich and prices well up at the moment.

Excellent question, which has been asked many times on this BB

Its seems the market at present wishes only the oil price correlation which i find
strange as many oil majors are reducing the oil play due to venturing into gas and other sectors

Some are saying most algos link up with the wti and brent oil prices,but not sure its true

is it really a 85pc algo run stock market these days

[p0pper] 16/1/2019 11:33

Seems like Shell is not related to the Gas price at the moment, any clues as to why this has not so much bearing seeing as we are so gas rich and prices well up at the moment.

[adrian j boris] 16/1/2019 11:28

A group of nearly 30 companies involved in the production of plastics and consumer goods said Wednesday that they have committed $1 billion to help reduce plastic waste as part of a global alliance.

The Alliance to End Plastic Waste, which includes oil-and-gas majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) and chemical makers like BASF SE (BAS.XE), hopes to invest $1.5 billion over the next five years, according to fellow member Total SA (FP.FR).

Among other projects, the group plans to partner with cities to design waste-management systems, especially along rivers which transport waste to the ocean.

Member companies will also fund the development of technologies that prevent plastic waste by investing in startups, with an initial focus on Southeast Asia.



Write to Nathan Allen at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 16, 2019 05:56 ET (10:56 GMT)

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 08:47

This morning’s market price action proving that speculation on short term political events that are irrelevant to RDSB’s business is a waste of time, effort and, not least, money.
Hopefully we can return to discussing the real business of RDSB at some time.

[montyhedge] 15/1/2019 20:24

General election or no deal the only option.

[wbecki] 15/1/2019 20:13

Loss by majority of 230!!!!
Worst loss since 1920 - she must resign.

Confidence vote called. Corbyn will lose.

You heard it here first.

[fjgooner] 15/1/2019 19:33

Trump considering embargo of Venezuelan oil - report

Tue 15 Jan 2019 17:27:07 GMT
Author: Adam Button

Trump is considering recognizing Venezuela congress chief Juan Guaido as the country's legitimate president, according to CNN.

The same report says that Trump is considering an oil embargo:

"The Trump administration is also considering leveling its harshest set of sanctions yet against Venezuela's oil industry, weighing actions as severe as a full-fledged embargo of Venezuelan oil, two sources briefed on the matter said."

A previous White House analysis said that would cause US gas prices to rise 15-cents per gallon for about six months.

Early today the WSJ reported something along the same lines saying the US was considering 'curtailing' the flow of Venezuelan oil.

Venezuela ships about half its oil exports to the US.

If this happens, one of the casualties could be gold. Venezuela has been rumored to be selling its gold reserves to raise hard cash.

[sarkasm] 15/1/2019 19:27

Shell Develops Real-time Evaluation Technology For FPSO In Brazil
Brunno Braga
Tuesday, January 15, 2019 - 12:18pm

An FPSO is shown offshore Brazil in the Campos Basin. (Source: Leo Francini/Shutterstock.com)

10

RIO DE JANEIRO—Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) subsidiary Shell Brasil has teamed up with ABS, SBM Offshore and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) to develop tools for real-time evaluation of the impact of operating activities and environmental conditions on the degradation of FPSOs.

The move comes as the Anglo-Dutch major aims to develop new technologies to increase operational safety, reduce costs and increase productivity and efficiency of its assets.

The project, which has an estimated investment of US$1.5 million, was developed in Brazil over the last two years. It involves determining which parameters and information are vital for FPSO integrity assessment to define a standard for data acquisition and treatment at fields.

In addition, the project will develop new techniques for estimating the remaining time for safe platform operation.

According to Shell Brasil, this new methodology represents a different approach to the current practice, in which the shelf life of the platform is estimated at the design stage and its degradation by aging only at the end of the project. The new techniques will allow the company to estimate maintenance costs required to extend the operational life of FPSOs.

“Understanding the current condition and knowing how to predict changes in the structural integrity of FPSO units over their useful life is critical to support the decision on the appropriate timing for decommissioning or replacement,” said Shell Brazil Technology Manager José Ferrari. “This partnership with ABS, SBM Offshore and UFRJ is crucial to ensuring the delivery of something of value to the offshore industry.”

In addition to contributing to the optimized management of unit integrity, this new methodology will also enhance the safety of workers by minimizing exposure to repair and inspection interventions, and reducing the risk of structural incidents and deviations from normal operating conditions.

“This project is an opportunity for the university to join forces with the industry in developing advanced techniques and methodologies that will reliably guarantee the extension of the operational life of offshore platforms,” ​​said Luis Sagrilo, a professor at the Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of Offshore Structures (LACEO)for UFRJ’s civil engineering program.

Guilherme Pinto, technology manager at SBM Offshore in Brazil, added, “We are very pleased to be part of this project. SBM believes it can deliver significant added value through its technical expertise, built with extensive experience in decommissioning, life extension and reallocation of FPSOs and its robust asset integrity program.”

Sidney Bereicoa, ABS’s chief engineer, called the project “an important development opportunity to incorporate technological innovations” into ABS and international regulations applicable to the design and operational management of floating oil and gas production facilities. “It also highlights Brazil as a FPSO technology development center,” Bereicoa said.

The program will be funded by resources from the Research, Development & Innovation program developed by ANP, Brazil’s oil and gas regulator.

Shell’s output in Brazil is roughly 350,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Currently, Shell is the second largest oil company in Brazil. The company is present in the Abalone, Argonauta, Ostra, Bijupirá and Salema fields—all located in the Campos Basin.

The purchase of BG Group in 2016 further expanded Shell’s E&P assets in Brazil. With this transaction, the company gained interest in the main presalt fields: Lula, Sapinhoá and Lapa in the Santos Basin. Shell operates several blocks in the Barreirinhas Basin in addition to the S-M-518 (contract BM-S-54) in Santos, site of the Gato do Mato prospect.

In September, Shell Brazil—along with its partners Petrobras and Chevron—won an oil and gas contract at an auction organized by ANP. The contract gives the consortium 35 years to explore the Três Marias Block in the presalt Santos Basin, which is considered as one of the most prolific oil regions in the world.
Brunno Braga

Brunno Braga has led several magazines serving various industries including logistics, foreign trade and energy. He worked as editor-in-chief for the Foreign Trade Chambers Federation for 10 years.

[fjgooner] 15/1/2019 19:26

Of considerably more importance ......



U.S. envoy: No more waivers for Iran oil buyers

4:00 am, January 16, 2019

Bloomberg
DUBAI (Bloomberg) — The United States plans to grant no new waivers to buyers of Iranian oil as it intensifies efforts to eliminate the Middle Eastern producer’s exports of crude, a senior official said.

U.S. sanctions have so far cut Iran’s exports to about 1 million barrels a day from a level of 2.7 million before Washington announced sanctions on the country. Of the eight buyers that secured initial U.S. waivers to buy oil from Iran, only five are still doing so, Brian Hook, the State Department’s special representative for Iran, said in an interview.

“We are not looking to grant any new waivers — that’s been our policy from the beginning,” Hook said. “We’ve been able to achieve a lot of economic pressure on Iran. Eighty percent of their revenues come from oil exports. We want to deny the Iranian regime the revenue that it uses to destabilize the Middle East.”

The United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear accord in May and imposed sanctions targeting the country’s sales of oil, its economic lifeblood. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of sponsoring terrorism and seeking to develop nuclear weapons technology, and he has marshaled support in the Middle East and beyond to isolate the nation economically. Tehran maintains that it seeks atomic power solely for civilian purposes.

Hook confirmed that he met with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih in Vienna in December as OPEC members convened in the Austrian capital to assess the group’s output policy. Hook’s talks with Al-Falih were a part of “regular consultations that we’ve had ongoing.” Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is a regional rival of fellow OPEC member Iran.

[montyhedge] 15/1/2019 18:37

Sentiment, when she loses tonight by 130 votes. Corbyn will ask for a vote of no confidence, Corbyn is fav to be next PM. General election odds on to me.Point being the good, bad and ugly shares all hit together.Gone to cash.