Shell Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 18:08

Unfortunately the analysis done by Motley Fool is false for the UK.

This comment is disingenuous if not a lie:
"For example, last year the capacity of renewable energy exceeded that of fossil fuels for the UK for the first time. Renewable energy now accounts for 30% of the total electricity produced in the UK."

Capacity is not delivery and, in fact, the capacity is incorrect. [If i have a 1 kW solar panel on my roof and it is dark for 12 hours in the day my renewable capacity is 1 kW but, with efficieny losses, will be significantly less than 1/2 kW].

The "correct" figures are here:


The consumption associated with renewables, which includes methane, or natural gas, from biomass (Haha! with vegans telling us methane is bad, bad, bad!) was 9.5% in 2017.

This is common amongst many commentators as their agenda biases, for whatever reason, outweigh their analytical integrity when discussing factual data.
Easy to be conned. Like we have been with AGW probably! AIMV.

Next up, Monty will be repeating the mantra that a fall in diesel car sales spells the end of the hydrocarbone era! Lol!

[the grumpy old men] 16/1/2019 18:04

montyhedge
16 Jan '19 - 17:50 - 4473 of 4475
0 0 0
Advfn p.e 19

Grumpy Old Git, of course no one buys and sells and what anyone posts on a bullentin board, unless they are completely mad.
Like I said not everyone got rose tinted specs on for Shell, bulls and bears make a market.
This a a bullentin board, I know its emotional for you to lose money, but calm down your give yourself a heart attack . lol


Once again you do yourself too much credit
i do not own shell at the moment, and therefore would be happy to see it fall
but do not accept your one liners and incorrect information which you seem to post post too often these day

THE PE figure for example

[the grumpy old men] 16/1/2019 17:53

Which is out of date monty as explained already

the price earnings ratio today is just over 12

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 17:50

Advfn p.e 19

Grumpy Old Git, of course no one buys and sells and what anyone posts on a bullentin board, unless they are completely mad.
Like I said not everyone got rose tinted specs on for Shell, bulls and bears make a market.
This a a bullentin board, I know its emotional for you to lose money, but calm down your give yourself a heart attack . lol

[the grumpy old men] 16/1/2019 17:49

PLONKER COMES TO MIND



BUT ATLEAST WE CAN HAVE A LAUGH


no ONE buys or sell shares due to his posts HOPEFULLY

LOL

[fjgooner] 16/1/2019 17:43

@ montyhedge

16 Jan '19 - 16:19 - 4455 of 4469

"Great article Motley Fool is the Shell dividend under threat due to falling oil price.
Worth a read boys."

----

You are a colossal buffoon Monty - why should they read the article when you obviously haven't - the author clearly thinks that the dividend is under no immediate threat.

And people wonder why shorters are so disliked.

------------------------------



Is Footsie dividend stalwart Shell’s dividend under threat?

Rupert Hargreaves | Sunday, 13th January, 2019

Over the past few decades, Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) has earned itself a reputation for being the most reliable dividend stock in the FTSE 100.

The oil major has paid a dividend to investors every year since the end of the Second World War, and thanks to its reliability the company has earned almost legendary status among investors. The term “never sell Shell” is common around the City of London.

However, the winds of change are blowing against the company. Oil prices slumped in 2014 and have struggled to recover to previous levels. At the same time, the global shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy and cleaner alternatives is gaining traction.

The big question is, will these themes lead Shell to cut its 6% dividend?

Protecting the payout

It is no stranger to dividend cut rumours. When the price of oil started sliding in 2014 and the slump carried on into 2016, analysts believed a dividend reduction was inevitable. Management was able to maintain the payout by aggressively cutting costs and selling off non-core assets. These efforts helped profit margins recover and freed up cash to return to investors.

Going forward, the company wants to stick to its austerity era plan. Management will only commission deepwater oil projects that break even at $40 a barrel, which should enable the group to stay profitable in all but the most severe oil bear markets.

So, it looks as if the business should be able to weather low oil prices, although an extended period of prices below $40/bbl might cause problems. In reality, however, I think this is an improbable scenario.

Green growth

The shift away from fossil fuels to renewable energy is more worrying. Several countries around the world, including the UK, have stated that they will ban petrol and diesel cars by 2050, which will hit global demand for refined products. At the same time, investment in renewable energy technologies is exploding, curbing the need for fossil fuels in power generation.

For example, last year the capacity of renewable energy exceeded that of fossil fuels for the UK for the first time. Renewable energy now accounts for 30% of the total electricity produced in the UK.

While these are significant changes, in reality, I don’t think they will have much impact on companies like Shell in the short term. There is still a vast, and growing, demand for fossil fuels around the world and forecasts suggest demand is not going to peak for some time.

Nevertheless, if it wants to protect its dividend for the future, Shell needs to invest in green technology and renewable energy. The good news is that Shell has declared an ambition to double the amount it spends on green energy to £3.2bn a year. Although this is only a fraction of the group’s overall capital spending, it is a step in the right direction and should help the enterprise prepare for the future.

The bottom line

Considering all of the above, I don’t think the dividend is under immediate threat. However, risks to the payout are growing, and I don’t believe the distribution is as invulnerable as it has been in the past.

[the grumpy old men] 16/1/2019 17:34

PE 12 MONTHS AGO IT WAS 24 AND NOW IT IS 12


Jan. 16, 2019 12.04

Where do you get your info monty

LOL YOU GOT IT FROM ADVFN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN QUERIED AND SUSPECT



montyhedge
16 Jan '19 - 16:41 - 4461 of 4470
0 0 0
Everyone thinks Shell good value, oh really, p.e 19 seems expensive to me.
I agree with Motley Fool on dividend, especially if oil keeps falling.

[waldron] 16/1/2019 17:22

montyhedge
16 Jan '19 - 17:13 - 4467 of 4468
0 0 0
Bulls and bears make a market, not everyone got rose tinted specs on for Shell.

CHUCKLE

YOU ARE DOING YOUR USUAL DERAMPING PLOY

i will remind when you soon when start your ramping ploy

what i cannot understand is who you are trying to convince

PERHAPS JUST YOURSELF

If by chance oil majors including SHELL DO FALL BACK, I FOR ONE WILL BUY AND THINK ITS A GOLEN OPPORTUNITY

[waldron] 16/1/2019 17:15

Total
47.05 +0.14%


Engie
13.5 -0.77%

Orange
13.4 -0.45%


FTSE 100
6,858.16 -0.53%
Dow Jones
24,215.24 +0.62%
CAC 40
4,810.74 +0.51%

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 60.91 +0.45%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.40 -0.47%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.58 +2.26%


WTI - 16/01 17:44:46
52.06 USD +0.35%



BP
516 -1.28%


Shell A
2,330.5 -1.54%


Shell B
2,351 -1.92%



Back in the 2275 to 2375p BOX

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 17:13

Bulls and bears make a market, not everyone got rose tinted specs on for Shell.

[waldron] 16/1/2019 17:11

montyhedge
16 Jan '19 - 17:03 - 4465 of 4465
0 0 0
waldron
Do you think 19.5 p.e for ex growth stock good value? Dividend the only thing holding price at this level. 1975p correct price.

WILL AWAIT EARLY FEBRUARY BEFORE CONSIDERING A RESPONSE

MUST ADMIT I CONSIDER YOUR POSTS ILL ADVISED AND IRRESPONSIBLE

DO YOU REALISE THEY HAVE NO SWAY WITH MOST POSTERS HERE

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 17:03

waldron
Do you think 19.5 p.e for ex growth stock good value? Dividend the only thing holding price at this level. 1975p correct price.

But thats what makes a market bull and bears.

[waldron] 16/1/2019 16:58

CHUCKLE

Despite montys opinion ,i doubt that SHELL will forgoe the accolade regarding the dividend
and if by chance there be a share price fall, what a buying opportunity

MONTH END WILL TELL ALL

[ianood] 16/1/2019 16:57

"I agree with Motley Fool on dividend" - says it all really!

[waldron] 16/1/2019 16:44

4th quarter 2018
Event Date
Announcement date January 31, 2019

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:41

Everyone thinks Shell good value, oh really, p.e 19 seems expensive to me.
I agree with Motley Fool on dividend, especially if oil keeps falling.

[wbecki] 16/1/2019 16:40

Decent draw, higher than expected , EIA side

#EIA Inventories:
Crude: -2.683 Mb
Gasoline: +7.503 Mb
Distillate: +2.967 Mb
Cushing: -0.743 Mb “

From APi release yesterday
EIA forecast fall of 250,000 barrels

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:37

Lol don't shoot the messenger.

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 16:36

I might guess that some folks on this thread have owned Shell for decades and have been through the cycles of Shell unable to pay its dividends several times.
The last being the BG takeover.

Monty Fool fooled by Motley Fool.
Who woudda thunk it?

[la forge] 16/1/2019 16:29

montyhedge
16 Jan '19 - 16:19 - 4455 of 4455
0 0 0
Great article Motley Fool is the Shell dividend under threat due to falling oil price.
Worth a read boys.


MONTY

THINK YOU HAVE LOST THE THREAD

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:19

Great article Motley Fool is the Shell dividend under threat due to falling oil price.
Worth a read boys.

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 16:17

That's because prices aren't "falling", Monty.
Brent is flat at $60 and Natural Gas in the US is up 4%+.
Does lying come naturally with your comments?

[sogoesit] 16/1/2019 16:13

Hello again aj boris!

Being an integrated oil company RDS has the bulk of its assets upstream so valuing those, future, assets on which an upstream company will depend for its business will be, to say the least, uncertain if not "wrong". This is due to the nature of the input assumptions in any DCF model and the uncertainty of the underlying petroleum assets themselves. [For example the Brent Field at FFID in the early 70's was estimated to contain 1.8bn boe. After 30 years of production the original planned field life had been extended by some 50% and the ultimate cumulative offtake had reached some 3bn boe.]

However, if you're keen on looking at the valuation of these assets you are lucky (!) as RDS is listed on the NYSE and comes under SEC rules. Since these rules are probably the most sophisticated in the world wrt to Petroleum Reserves they are the benchmark for valuation. You will find their presentation in the company's Annual Form 20-F!
[BTW Petroleum Analysts tend to then produce their own DCF models as well. Wood Mackenzie is probably the most reputable independent analyst imv.]

Good luck ;-)!