Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 21/3/2018 12:51

Analyst sees 25% upside for Shell shares
07:07 21 Mar 2018
“Shell’s updated targets point to continued growth in downstream earnings and cash flow out to 2025, and this is particularly important as the downstream should be able to fund around 40% of Shell’s dividend by 2020"
Shell petrol pump
RBC has a 2,800p price target

Royal Bank of Canada analyst Biraj Borkhataria reckons Royal Dutch Shell PLC (LON:RDSB) shares could rise around 25%.

The analyst, in a note, highlighted that Shell has upgraded its own expectations with earnings growth seen across all key business lines in its downstream unit.
READ: Shell boss Van Beurden boasts of “strong financial performance”

Shell has detailed that it is targeting between US$6bn and US$7bn of organic free cash flow by 2020, and up to US$9bn and US$12bn by 2025.

Borkhataria said: “Shell’s updated targets point to continued growth in downstream earnings and cash flow out to 2025, and this is particularly important as the downstream should be able to fund around 40% of Shell’s dividend by 2020.

“Shell’s Chemicals plans have been well laid out and targets appear credible to us, while we are more sceptical on Shell’s plans in retail, as the market is fiercely competitive and the ongoing threat of EVs could put some of that earnings stream at risk.

“The message today is positive, as are the implications for Shell’s dividend per share over time is the company can deliver on its 2020 and 2025 plans.”

RBC has an ‘outperform217; rating for Shell with a price target of 2,800p (current price: 2,230p).

[waldron] 21/3/2018 12:42

Shell A
2,188.5 -0.45%



Shell B
2,224.5 -0.22%

SURPRISED AT TODAYS PREMIUM

[petepitstop] 21/3/2018 12:37

My 60USD sweet spot price is looking at a very complex situation in an effort to simplify things somewhat. The good news is that every year going forward moves Shell further from a dependency on the oil price. I increasingly see the company as a dynamic technology company participating in the energy sector.

[steve73] 21/3/2018 11:52

I'm a lurker here most days... although only post when I feel I have something worthwhile to contribute.

[waldron] 21/3/2018 11:42

Thanks very much steve for the prompt reply, although must admit a little surprised and bamboozled that downstream considered as not impacted by oil price movements

of course agree that supply and demand important


WHY WOULD USD 60 OIL PRICE BE MENTIONED


cheers fella

enjoy your day

and please pop in more often

[steve73] 21/3/2018 11:26

Waldron, downstream operation profits are not really related to the oil price.

Refinery profits are determined by the refining margin & crack-spread (value of sales less cost of crude) which is largely independent of oil price and is more dependent on global refining capacity. Obviously as global demand for oil (products) increases, so the margin increases (and hence profitability), although if there is too little global capacity there is the increased need for capital investment which has the opposite effect.

Further downstream, retail operations tend to operate with very low "retail" margins, with far higher profit contributions from coffee shops & mini-marts.

Chemicals margin are also determined by global individual product demand vs. existing capacity rather than oil price.

In a nutshell, if oil price is driven by higher demand, the downstream margins SHOULD also increase. But if higher oil price is driven by crude shortfalls, then downstream margin might be expected to drop.

Since we're currently seeing high O/P largely due to constrained supply, I'd expect DS margin to reduce, but as (if) global demand increases the DS margin should then start to increase.

[waldron] 21/3/2018 11:01

IF THE SWEET SPOT IS 60 FOR DOWN STREAM

WOULD YOU AGREE THAT DOWNSTREAM WOULD BE MORE PROFITABLE IF IT WAS AT 50





BUT UPSTREAM SHELL B HAPPY WITH 70

[petepitstop] 21/3/2018 10:45

Looking at the downstream open house report it looks as if the price sweet spot is 60USD.

[2hoggy] 21/3/2018 10:33

They can talk the talk, lets hope they can walk the walk??

[waldron] 21/3/2018 10:06

BP
460.7 -0.69%




Shell A
2,185.5 -0.59%



Shell B
2,217 -0.56%




Total
46.075 -0.35%

[waldron] 21/3/2018 10:01

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE FREE CASH FLOW SHELL B USED




PROFITABLE INVESTMENTS AND PROJECTS

REDUCE DEBT

TOP UP PENSION FUND

AND OF COURSE REWARD INVESTORS FOR THEIR LOYALTY AND PATIENCE BY INCREASING THE
DIVIDEND

[waldron] 21/3/2018 08:38

BP
463.65 -0.05%



Shell A
2,209 +0.48%



Shell B
2,241.5 +0.54%


Total
46.355 +0.26%

[waldron] 21/3/2018 08:17

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA.LN) said Wednesday that its transforming downstream business is driving a profitable growth outlook for the company, forecasting that organic free-cash-flow in the division will be in a range of between $6 billion and $7 billion by 2020.

The oil company also said it forecast free-cash-flow in its downstream business--which deals with the refining and processing of hydrocarbons before selling the resultant products--of between $9 billion and $12 billion by 2025, at a price of $60 a barrel.

The company said earnings from its chemicals division is expected to reach from $3.5 billion to $4 billion a year by 2025, while Shell's marketing arm plans to generate more than $2.5 billion in additional earnings by the same year.



Write to Oliver Griffin at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 21, 2018 03:50 ET (07:50 GMT)

[waldron] 21/3/2018 08:13

APPARENTLY GREAT NEWS ON FREE CASH FLOW FRONT ACCORDING TO CNBC

WATCH OUT FOR WRITE UPS TO CONFIRM

[waldron] 20/3/2018 17:34

BP
463.9 +0.90%



Shell A
2,198.5 +1.06%



Shell B
2,229.5 +1.27%

Total
46.235 +0.09%

[waldron] 20/3/2018 08:57

BP
459.45 -0.07%



Shell A
2,183 +0.34%



Shell B
2,214 +0.57%




Total
46.065 -0.28%

[2hoggy] 19/3/2018 22:34

Oil be a holder of both companies so I am a happy man...

Bp now 10 years,shell 5 years,when I look at my cash savings in the building society it has no comparison.

They are depleting to give all these young people cheap house loans,they are so hard done by,poor things...

[fjgooner] 19/3/2018 21:51

Of more relevance to this board perhaps. :)

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2017 EURO AND GBP EQUIVALENT DIVIDEND
PAYMENTS

The Hague, March 9, 2018 - The Board of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("RDS") today
announced the pounds sterling and euro equivalent dividend payments in respect
of the fourth quarter 2017 interim dividend, which was announced on February 1,
2018 at US$0.47 per A ordinary share ("A Share") and B ordinary share ("B
Share").

Dividends on A Shares will be paid, by default, in euro at the rate of EUR0.3818
per A Share. Holders of A Shares who have validly submitted pounds sterling
currency elections by March 2, 2018 will be entitled to a dividend of 33.91p
per A Share.

Dividends on B Shares will be paid, by default, in pounds sterling at the rate
of 33.91p per B Share. Holders of B Shares who have validly submitted euro
currency elections by March 2, 2018 will be entitled to a dividend of EUR0.3818
per B Share.

This dividend will be payable on March 26, 2018 to those members whose names
were on the Register of Members on February 16, 2018.

[waldron] 19/3/2018 17:07

RNS Number : 1174I

BP PLC

19 March 2018

19 March 2018

BP p.l.c.

Fourth quarter interim dividend for 2017

Payments of dividends in sterling

On 6 February 2018, the Directors of BP p.l.c. announced that the interim dividend for the fourth quarter 2017 would be US$0.10 per ordinary share (US$0.60 per ADS). This interim dividend is to be paid on 29 March 2018 to shareholders on the share register on 16 February 2018. The dividend is payable in cash in sterling to holders of ordinary shares and in US dollars to holders of ADSs. A scrip dividend alternative has been made available for this dividend allowing shareholders to elect to receive their dividend in the form of new ordinary shares and ADS holders in the form of new ADSs.

Sterling dividends payable in cash will be converted from US dollars at an average of the market exchange rate over the four dealing days from 13 to 16 March 2018 (GBP1 = US$1.39488). Accordingly, the amount of sterling dividend payable in cash on 29 March 2018 will be:

7.1691 pence per share.

Details of the fourth quarter 2017 dividend and timetable are available at www.bp.com/dividends and details of the Scrip Dividend Programme are available at www.bp.com/scrip.

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

DIVGCGDXUBBBGIC

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 19, 2018 05:17 ET (09:17 GMT)