Shell Share Discussion Threads

[grupo] 11/3/2018 19:21

Glut Or Deficit: Where Are Oil Markets Headed?
By Nick Cunningham - Mar 11, 2018, 2:00 PM CDT Barrels

A flurry of recent oil market forecasts have sent a lot of mixed messages about what to expect both in the near-term and over the next several years. Is U.S. shale about to flood the market, setting off another bust? Or is demand so strong that with the oil market already rapidly tightening, another price rally is in store?

Obviously, nobody knows how to untangle the long list of variables that will ultimately decide what happens next, but the divergence in opinions is rather striking.

By and large, the discrepancy is over the difference between the short-term and the medium-term. Surging U.S. shale production is keeping the market well supplied right now, but soaring demand and the lack of major conventional projects in the works will lead to a price spike somewhere down the line.

Nevertheless, there is also disagreement over the immediate future. We are currently in the “calm before the storm,” according to Gary Ross, global head of oil analytics and chief energy economist at S&P Global Platts. “Pressure is going to build on crude prices,” he said in an interview with the WSJ. “We’re not feeling it now, but we will.”

Ross argues that oil demand is growing so quickly, that the market will absorb all the extra supply. He says China and India alone will take on an additional 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d). Meanwhile, oil inventories are sharply down, thanks to the OPEC cuts. After refineries finish up maintenance season, the oil market will wake up to the fact that supplies are incredibly tight, Ross argues. “The world is going to be short come peak season,” he told the WSJ. “When the music stops, someone’s not going to have a seat.”

Related: Why The Next Oil Boom Will Be Fueled By Blockchain

This view is echoed by Goldman Sachs, which made headlines a few weeks ago when it predicted that the elusive oil market “rebalancing” had probably already arrived. “The rebalancing of the oil market has likely been achieved, six months sooner than we had expected,” Goldman analysts wrote in a research note a little more than a month ago. The investment bank said that inventories were probably already back to the five-year average level, and because the data is published on a lag, the risk was that OPEC would end up overtightening the market before such a fact became clear.

Of course, this is all predicated on demand continuing to grow at a healthy clip. If the global economy stumbles, and the demand forecasts miss, prices could careen downwards. The brewing trade war that President Trump seems eager to have is the most obvious, but not only, pitfall that lies ahead.

Strong economic growth is what’s “really driving demand at levels much higher than recent history,” ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods said at the CERAWeek Conference on Wednesday. “When that demand starts to tail off, if Permian production continues to rise, I think that you’re going to see a different rebalancing of the market and OPEC will have to make some calls around how they want to manage that,” Woods said. Translation: prices will crash if demand starts to slow.

The supply side is also a concern. Skyrocketing production from the Permian basin could spoil the party, sparking another price meltdown – a rerun of 2014. The EIA estimates that U.S. oil production jumped by 230,000 bpd in February compared to a month earlier, averaging 10.3 mb/d. That’s an astounding conclusion because just two months ago, the agency was of the belief that the U.S. would average 10.3 mb/d for all of 2018. We have already hit that level and are heading up. The agency has since revised up its forecast to 10.7 mb/d for 2018 and 11.3 mb/d in 2019.

Related: Tech Giants Scramble To Secure Cobalt Supply

Perhaps more importantly, the EIA sees global inventories rising – not falling – both this year and next. In other words, despite the recent drawdowns, the high compliance rate from OPEC and the promise by the cartel to keep the production limits in place for the rest of this year at least, inventories could still build at a 0.4 mb/d pace this year and by an additional 0.3 mb/d in 2019. The supply glut could be returning.

In a similar vein, Citigroup’s Ed Morse sees Brent prices falling below $60 per barrel by the summer because of the flood of shale production.

Take each of these forecasts with a grain of salt. We have a lot of very smart people predicting wildly different things. We’ll just have to wait and see what plays out.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

[the grumpy old men] 11/3/2018 09:49

Shell seeks to buy Leviathan, Aphrodite gas - report
Leviathan gas field Photo: Noble Energy
11 Mar, 2018 10:15
Sonia Gorodeisky
According to Bloomberg, Shell is in talks to buy 10 BCM annually from the Israeli and Cypriot reservoirs.

Global energy giant Shell is in talks to buy gas from the Leviathan and Aphrodite reservoirs (the former Israeli, the latter Cypriot) in a $25 billion deal over ten years, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

According to the report, based on energy industry sources, the secret negotiations concern the purchase of 10 BCM annually from the two reservoirs together.
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"If a deal is signed, it will represent a huge drama for the local economy. It will necessitate an expansion project for Leviathan, and remove any fear of excess supply of gas in the local market," an energy industry source told "Globes" today.

According to Bloomberg, the parties seek to sign a deal by the end of this year. Shell, which owns the EDCO natural gas liquefaction plant in Egypt, will then be able to liquefy the gas and sell it all over the world.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on March 11, 2018

[2hoggy] 10/3/2018 12:29

Goody,goody,looking forward to that.

[la forge] 10/3/2018 08:51

dividend will be payable on March 26, 2018 to those members whose names were on the Register of Members on February 16, 2018.

[abbotslynn] 09/3/2018 22:28

Still we have a decent dividend,unlike some high st shops. JL lowest for 60yr.

[grupo] 09/3/2018 22:20

Statoil, Total, Shell prove precocious in weaning from oil
Cassandra Sweet
Friday, March 9, 2018 - 2:15am
Oil companies are responding in different ways to growing pressure to cut the carbon output of their operations and products.
ShutterstockMakhnach S
Oil companies are responding in different ways to growing pressure to cut the carbon output of their operations and products.

When it comes to addressing climate change, oil companies are all over the map.

Meeting this week in Houston at CERAWeek, the world’s biggest oil and gas conference, the world’s biggest oil companies talked about oil and climate change — sometimes in the same sentence.

But while European oil majors such as Statoil and Total spoke about their long-term plans to shift their focus away from oil, toward natural gas and renewable energy, in line with the global transition to a low-carbon economy, their American counterparts appeared less convinced that demand for oil will diminish in future decades.

Amid growing international concerns about climate change and extreme weather events, such as destructive hurricanes, wildfires and droughts that scientists have started linking to global warming, the oil industry is under increasing pressure from investors to take action by adding low-carbon products and services to their businesses.

"The big debate in the industry and among investors is: Is there a role for the (oil) industry to play in a low-carbon transition?" said Andrew Logan, director of oil and gas at Ceres. "Do they bring anything other than cash to the table? That’s very much an open question."

Is there a role for the oil industry to play in a low-carbon transition?

Total plans to shift its focus from oil to natural gas and to expand into electricity, including renewables such as solar power and battery storage, which the company is already invested in, said Patrick Pouyanné, the company’s chairman and chief executive.

"If we’re able to shift all the coal-fired power plants to gas-fired power plants, we would be immediately on the 2-degree roadmap that the Paris Agreement is calling for," he added, speaking at CERAWeek in a session that was webcast. "In 20 years, Total will be first a gas and oil company, with some assets in alternative energies."

In 20 years, Total will be first a gas and oil company, with some assets in alternative energies.

Statoil plans to shift as much as 20 percent of its capital investments into renewables and low-carbon products by 2030. The company has invested about $2.6 billion in renewables in the last several years, particularly in offshore wind farms.

Royal Dutch Shell plans to cut its carbon footprint in half by 2050 by expanding into renewable energy and scaling back growth in oil and gas.

Shell has the right idea, climate mitigation experts say.

Oil and gas companies must cut the carbon emissions intensity of their products by 40 percent to 60 percent by 2050, Cynthia Cummins, a climate expert at the World Resources Institute, wrote in February. The world can afford a limited amount of emissions to avoid a global temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius, she added. That means that absolute carbon emissions from all global energy use needs to fall by 63 percent, and absolute emissions from oil and gas products must fall by 35 percent to 60 percent.

Some U.S. oil company executives who appeared at CERAWeek seemed skeptical of this scenario.

In ConocoPhillips' climate plan, the company describes plans to cut emissions from its operations, by boosting efficiency, plugging leaks and cutting back on gas flaring. But there is little mention of boosting investment in renewable energy, scaling back oil operations or taking other actions that would reduce the company's exposure to oil and petroleum products.

"We’ve never denied the science; we want to debate the policy," Ryan Lance, the company’s chairman and chief executive, said during an appearance at CERAWeek that was webcast. He added that the company plans to reduce its greenhouse-gas intensity over the next 15 to 20 years.

We’ve never denied the science, we want to debate the policy.

ExxonMobil in February acknowledged the threat of climate change, but predicted that global greenhouse-gas emissions will continue rising until 2040, as oil and natural gas is produced to meet more than half the world’s energy demand, with oil providing the largest share, due to strong demand from the commercial transportation and chemical industries.

Exxon released the information as part of a report on energy and carbon, in response to a shareholder resolution that sought climate disclosures about how technology advances and global climate change policies would affect the company.

Meanwhile, the pressure to change continues. Exxon and other oil companies are defending themselves in lawsuits brought by local and state governments that are making their way through the courts.

New York City, San Francisco and other cities are suing Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Shell and BP to recover the costs of protecting their cities from climate change impacts such as rising sea levels that the cities argue are the result of decades of greenhouse gases from making and burning petroleum fuels.

New York state is separately suing Exxon over accusations that the company misled investors about how it accounts for climate change impacts on its business.

It’s unclear what effect the lawsuits might have. But policy changes in other parts of the world are sending a clear message.

Among the clearest was an announcement the World Bank made in December that it won’t finance any upstream oil and gas projects after 2019. Instead, the bank plans to focus on providing financing in "transformational areas" such as energy efficiency, solar power and resilience, as part of efforts to help countries meet their climate goals under the Paris Agreement.

[fjgooner] 09/3/2018 20:50

Both Brent & WTI crude surging 3% up tonight. :)

[sarkasm] 09/3/2018 20:39

News provided by
Royal Dutch Shell plc

12:50 ET

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THE HAGUE, Netherlands, March 9, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --

The Board of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("RDS") (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B) today announced the pounds sterling and euro equivalent dividend payments in respect of the fourth quarter 2017 interim dividend, which was announced on February 1, 2018 at US$0.47 per A ordinary share ("A Share") and B ordinary share ("B Share").

Dividends on A Shares will be paid, by default, in euro at the rate of €0.3818 per A Share. Holders of A Shares who have validly submitted pounds sterling currency elections by March 2, 2018 will be entitled to a dividend of 33.91p per A Share.

Dividends on B Shares will be paid, by default, in pounds sterling at the rate of 33.91p per B Share. Holders of B Shares who have validly submitted euro currency elections by March 2, 2018 will be entitled to a dividend of €0.3818 per B Share.

This dividend will be payable on March 26, 2018 to those members whose names were on the Register of Members on February 16, 2018.

Taxation - cash dividend

Cash dividends on A Shares will be subject to the deduction of Dutch dividend withholding tax at the rate of 15%, which may be reduced in certain circumstances. Non-Dutch resident shareholders, depending on their particular circumstances, may be entitled to a full or partial refund of Dutch dividend withholding tax.

Furthermore, in April 2016, there were changes to the UK taxation of dividends. The dividend tax credit was abolished, and a new tax free dividend allowance introduced. Dividend income in excess of the allowance is taxable at the following rates: 7.5% within the basic rate band; 32.5% within the higher rate band; and 38.1% on dividend income taxable at the additional rate.

If you are uncertain as to the tax treatment of any dividends you should consult your own tax advisor.

[waldron] 09/3/2018 17:00

Shell A
2,261.5 -0.15%



Shell B
2,287.5 -0.13%

[ariane] 09/3/2018 13:06

Why Royal Dutch Shell plc is the 1 stock I’d buy right now

Alan Oscroft | Friday, 9th March, 2018 | More on: RDSB
Image source: Getty Images.

Suppose you faced the challenge of selecting one FTSE stock right now, to buy and hold for 10 years, with nothing else. What would you choose?

It’s risky, so I’d focus on long-term safety, looking for a number of key characteristics. My pick would be Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB), and I’ll tell you why.

Firstly, I’d want a top-drawer blue-chip stock, so I’d restrict myself to the best of the FTSE 100. Not newcomers, but ones that have been on London’s top index for years. And they literally don’t come any bigger than Shell, whose £190bn market cap makes it by far the biggest of them all — it’s about the size of HSBC Holdings and Barclays put together.
Dividends

Next, it would have to be a long-term progressive dividend payer, offering above average yields. I’m not worried about short-term shocks, though Shell did keep its dividend going throughout the oil price slump. Over the long term, Shell has been paying dividends that have soundly beaten the FTSE 100’s average (which stands at around 3.1% to 3.4% depending on who you ask.) Forecast yields for Shell stand at 6%.

I’d also want a stock whose total returns have consistently beaten its index. And Shell has done that too. Over the past five years, the oil crisis had led to a share price underperformance compared to the FTSE 100. But since the turn of the century, Shell shares have gained around 20% compared to the Footsie’s 13%. And when you add those far superior dividends, Shell is way ahead in the total returns stakes.
Cash is key

To support its progressive dividends, I’d also look for strong cash generation. Now this has been a weakness over the past few years, but that’s against the long-term trend. Forecasts suggest the 2019 dividend should be covered almost 1.4 times by earnings, but what about the cash itself? In February’s full-year results, Shell reported a 73% rise in operational cash flow to $35,650m with free cash flow of $27,621m (from an outflow of $10,348m a year previously.) Looks like its getting back to ‘business as usual’ to me.

There would also need to be a solid long-term demand for the company’s goods or services. And come on, it’s oil and gas, without which the world simply cannot function. I know there’s a growing trend towards renewable energy supplies, and that’s a very good thing. But I really don’t see the demand for fossil fuels falling off significantly in my lifetime.
Can’t be beaten?

I’d also want a company that is defensive, and which has a strong moat around its business so that new upstarts are not going to take its livelihood. The world’s big oil companies, with their massive capital investment, easily pass that one. And unlike pure upstream producers, a company like Shell operates at every upstream and downstream stage, from exploratory drilling all the way to filling your car.

As we’re really in a global economy, I’d want serious worldwide diversification. And well, what do I need to say about Shell on that score? Around 35% of its turnover comes from Europe, 20% from the USA, and a rising chunk is down to the growing economies of the East, led by China.

[waldron] 09/3/2018 08:18

Shell A
2,266 +0.04%



Shell B
2,288 -0.11%

[waldron] 09/3/2018 07:01

Oil is here to stay as cleaner power lacks sizzle, says Shell
Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - 2:43 PM

[SINGAPORE] There'll be at least one home still welcoming fossil fuels in the face of a growing threat from cleaner resources, according to Royal Dutch Shell.

Heavy industry relies on hydrocarbons to generate extremely high temperatures and chemical reactions, according to Mark Quartermain, vice-president of crude oil trading and supply at the company. Many processes used in iron, steel, cement and plastics factories can't be electrified at all, and even if they could be, cannot be done at a viable cost in the foreseeable future, he said at a conference in Singapore.

A growing body of research is painting a bearish picture for oil beyond the next 20 years, as more electric vehicles hit roads across the globe and engines become more efficient. Rapid adoption could mean demand peaks by the 2030s, according to Bank of America and BP, a prospect that's likely to worry institutional investors in the energy industry. On Friday, the International Energy Agency said oil demand from passenger cars will peak in 2020.

Still, some industry watchers have predicted dirtier sources of energy such as crude oil will hold their ground in spite of an expansion in the use of more environmentally friendly machines like EVs (electric vehicles). Growth in air travel and petrochemicals will continue to support long-term oil demand and the market may see another supercycle because of underinvestment and a peak in US shale output, Sanford C Bernstein said this week.

"Energy transition is underway, let's not put our head in the sand and ignore that, but it will unfold differently in different sectors," Mr Quartermain said at S&P Global Platts' annual Asian Refining Summit.
SEE ALSO: Oil prices tumble, in tandem with Wall Street

"A switch to use electricity powered by low-carbon and renewable sources will be relatively straightforward in some sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing of clothes and food, which require low-temperature processes."

Oil continues to play a fundamental role in today's world, and global demand will continue to rise before a slight decline in the late 2030s, when peak consumption may occur, he said. While Shell sees gas playing an important role as well, oil demand is predicted to grow in the next 20 years.

BLOOMBERG

[abbotslynn] 08/3/2018 21:20

Back on track today

[waldron] 08/3/2018 17:00

Shell A
2,265 -0.37%



Shell B
2,290.5 +0.15%

[the grumpy old men] 08/3/2018 16:37

Aramco said to lead raft of Saudi-UK deals in prince's visit
By Kelly Gilblom and Glen Carey on 3/8/2018

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia’s national oil company signed a batch of deals with UK companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the nation in an effort to demonstrate the kingdom is open for business.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, is among companies from the kingdom that will undertake joint projects worth at least $2.1 billion stretching from energy to health care and real estate, according to people familiar with the matter. That includes collaboration with Shell on natural gas, a crude oil to chemical project with Amec Foster Wheeler Plc, and a partnership with think tank Chatham House to create a “broader understanding of Saudi Aramco among a global audience.”

The transactions are happening against a backdrop of rapid economic changes initiated by the prince, who is next in line to the throne in the Middle Eastern monarchy. His more open approach has generated worldwide curiosity about how the largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will now approach its energy sector. Saudi Aramco, known for closely guarding information about its business, intends to list on public exchanges this year.

UK officials didn’t expect a decision during the visit on whether London could be chosen to host the initial public offering. British companies will be signing 18 memorandums of understanding, the people said. Five will be linked to Aramco while the others cover a range of sectors, from a pharmaceutical joint venture to an agreement for the kingdom to host an international golf championship.

In addition to the Shell and Amec partnerships, Aramco will sign a corporate purchase agreement with Varel International Energy Services for equipment and services used in well drilling, the people said. It also plans to collaborate with Imperial College London and the Welding Institute on “advanced materials and non-metallic innovation.”